Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

[Khorasan Black Flags]

Very important for Iranians,Persian Speakers and others who can Translate: ☣

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[Persian Gulf]

I don't know that Iran will need to openly abandon Hezbollah. I think Hezbollah is on its way out. It's in Iran's interest to keep doing what they're doing in terms of supporting them. Surely you realize IRGC high command knew that one day Hezbollah would be spent. These proxies were just cards to play.

Turkey is trying very hard to pull the rug, but it's an integral part of NATO- perhaps the most important component as it seals the Black Sea. Iran pulled the rug in 1979. It can do so again.

Hezbollah has 100,000 members and Israel is about to declare victory in its ground invasion soon anyway, anyone who thinks they can remove Hezbollah from Lebanon because first line of command and 2000 others were killed is delusional

Hezbollah has many advantages in Lebanon that ensure its survival. backing of 20-40% of the society, large border with pro-Axis Syria relatively far from Israel (Israel cannot impose a blockade), terrain, and deeply entrenched in northern Beeqa mountains. Despite all the bombings and bravado we still see Hezbollah use these missile bases under mountains to fire ballistic missiles at Israel

as for the disparity in casualties, of course a guerrilla movement will suffer greater losses than a powerful state. but this has never been the sole determinant of strategic victories and it will not be the case this time either.

 

[BlutUndEhre44]

Hezbollah has 100,000 members and Israel is about to declare victory in its ground invasion soon anyway, anyone who thinks they can remove Hezbollah from Lebanon because first line of command and 2000 others were killed is delusional

Hezbollah has many advantages in Lebanon that ensure its survival. backing of 20-40% of the society, large border with pro-Axis Syria relatively far from Israel (Israel cannot impose a blockade), terrain, and deeply entrenched in northern Beeqa mountains. Despite all the bombings and bravado we still see Hezbollah use these missile bases under mountains to fire ballistic missiles at Israel

as for the disparity in casualties, of course a guerrilla movement will suffer greater losses than a powerful state. but this has never been the sole determinant of strategic victories and it will not be the case this time either.

Hezbollah may have 100,000 card-carrying members but what that number consists of is speculation. It's reasonable to say there are 25,000 full-time fighters, 5,000 of which are Radwan Force, then there are another 20-25,000 part-time fighters. The rest can be teachers, nurses, doctors, bureaucrats, security personnel, clerks, advocates, you name it. No one aside from Nasrallah when he bloviated ever stated Hezbollah has 100,000 fighters.

Hezbollah has backing of maybe 20% of Lebanese society, but we are forgetting that those who do not like them genuinely hate them. This is almost half of the Christians and all of the Sunnis, with the Druze being largely a coin-toss.

What you said about terrain is correct, except without intact command and control and communications, Hezbollah cannot play its trump card- it cannot launch the saturation strike with rockets and missiles that would overwhelm the Iron Dome. You yourself know this, only a few weeks ago you were reflecting on how Hezbollah has only managed to mount limited, 2006-level rocket attacks.

As for the last point, kill count matters. If only for the reason that a dead fighter can no longer fight. A dead commander can no longer command. These things matter in war.

 

[jauk]

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[the saint]

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[Khorasan Black Flags]

Fatwa of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei in Persian: ☣

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[jauk]

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[vmro]

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Khamenei's reasons for ban on nuclear-armed military development are based on common sense and long-term consequences, making Iranian ongoing strategic dominance useless with few new nuclear-armed players in the region...

But Iran is near edge to have no choice but to found own atomic bombs, having insane establishment in tel Aviv, pure survival guarantees... And from the time of engaging Ahmadinejad is clear that obstacles are political not scientific, political decision to forbid nuclear weapons by Iranian leader in the first place...first open disagreements on the issue, then President as military irgc player and the moderate leader..

They can make few of them almost instantly, but for tiny Israel, few are too much ...

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

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[HAIDER]

So, in other words , Iran now a nuclear power.

 

[LongLiveIran]

Europe is preparing to activate the snapback mechanism before the permanent lifting of UNSC sanctions on Iran. I hope Iran is ready to mass-produce IR-s, IR-8 and IR-9 machines.

If Europe pulls out of the JCPOA, our enrichment capacity should exceed 500K SWU/year.

 

[UKBengali]

Europe is preparing to activate the snapback mechanism before the permanent lifting of UNSC sanctions on Iran. I hope Iran is ready to mass-produce IR-s, IR-8 and IR-9 machines.

If Europe pulls out of the JCPOA, our enrichment capacity should exceed 500K SWU/year.

I am ignorant here but can you advise what these machines do?

 

[LongLiveIran]

I am ignorant here but can you advise what these machines do?

They're basically the newer generations of Iran's centrifuges.
IR-1 and IR-2 are old designs based on Pakistan's P-1 and P-2. Their enrichment capacity is low. IR-1 has a theoretical capacity of 1 SWU/year and IR-2 and IR-2m can theoretically reach 2-4 SWU/year respectively. Iran reports SWU/year for UF6 gas by the way.

IR-s is particularly interesting because it is short and its rotor is made of carbon fiber. It is perfect for a facility like Fordow. Iran's earlier generations used aluminum and maraging steel rotors but newer generations like IR-4 and IR-6 use carbon fiber.

IR-8 and IR-9 have higher enrichment capacities. IR-9 has a theoretical capacity of 50 SWU/year, for example. 50 times more than IR-1.

 

[Hypersonic]

As suspected this was just a case of good cop bad cop strategy I had said earlier. You don’t suddenly come out and change your mind on nuclear weapons. Their public words are all very calculated. Covertly, Iran certainly has had nukes for a long time. Overtly, they are now inching closer to demonstrating a physical nuclear weapon.

Trump certainly will become the next president. He is a vain toddler who cares a lot about his perceived image. He would not want Iran to go nuclear during his term so I assume he’d be willing to make great concession should any negotiations start.

personally I feel the time is almost ripe to go nuclear openly. Any concerned for the domino effect in the region are not big enough anymore to contain this.

 

[LongLiveIran]

As suspected this was just a case of good cop bad cop strategy I had said earlier. You don’t suddenly come out and change your mind on nuclear weapons. Their public words are all very calculated. Covertly, Iran certainly has had nukes for a long time. Overtly, they are now inching closer to demonstrating a physical nuclear weapon.

Trump certainly will become the next present. He is a vain toddler who cares a lot about his perceived image. He would not want Iran to go nuclear during his term so I assume he’d be willing to make great concession should any negotiations start.

personally I feel the time is almost ripe to go nuclear openly. Any concerned for the domino effect in the region are not big enough anymore to contain this.

Agreed. Iran can milk the US under Trump by going overtly nuclear and then negotiate with them.
Then Iran can sign a useless paper like North Korea and promise Trump that we will never ever have nuclear weapons again And Trump can tell his MAGA fans that he is such a charismatic leader who is respected by all leaders around the world and he can solve all problems in 24 hours.