Mehdipersian
Trusted Member
The head of the Iranian Energy Organization ordered to take effective measures, including launching a large number of new and advanced centrifuges of various types.
Iranian Nuclear Doctrine
- Thread starter jauk
- Start date
Bharatah
SpeedLimited
Iran already has atomic weapons but he can't speak publicly because of the NPT and because it would give the US (not Israel) exactly what the US wants: a nuclear Iran!
Nuclear Iran would justify an "Arab NATO" against Iran and an eternal US occupation in the Middle East against(finally) a powerful local country: Iran would be "the new Russia" and Israel would be sold as "Ukraine", Saudi Arabia would be a new Poland. The US wants a publicly nuclear Iran, this is the plan, while Netanyahu wants the total destruction of Iran.
Iran wants to "Create new proxies", improve its economy and not distance itself from other Middle Eastern countries, not give them into the hands of the USA but on the contrary join with them against the USA and Israel, as an Islamic unity and for it he cannot say publicly "I'm a nuclear power" , Kameney is very smart.
Nuclear Iran would justify an "Arab NATO" against Iran and an eternal US occupation in the Middle East against(finally) a powerful local country: Iran would be "the new Russia" and Israel would be sold as "Ukraine", Saudi Arabia would be a new Poland. The US wants a publicly nuclear Iran, this is the plan, while Netanyahu wants the total destruction of Iran.
Iran wants to "Create new proxies", improve its economy and not distance itself from other Middle Eastern countries, not give them into the hands of the USA but on the contrary join with them against the USA and Israel, as an Islamic unity and for it he cannot say publicly "I'm a nuclear power" , Kameney is very smart.
UKBengali
Elite Member
I would be absolutely flabbergasted if Iran at the least did not have fully designed warheads(without fissile material loaded) that had already been tested with their delivery systems.
At a minimum Iran would be able to construct multiple 10-20kT warheads within weeks(after crash programme to enrich to weapons grade is launched) and would be able to survive any pre-emptive strikes(nuclear and non-nuclear) deep in mountain missile bases, and then retaliate with decapitation strikes.
Iran likely has already done multiple "cold" tests already and so the reliability would not be in doubt.
Sure the US and by implication the entity is fully aware that any attempt to "regime change" or seriously harm Iran will have absolutely devastating consequences for the aggressor.
LongLiveIran
Registered Member
You have to understand that a regime change through military means is not necessary. They can exert pressure on Iran until Iran implodes from within.
The inflation in Iran has been around 60%-70% for the last 10 years while salaries have grown 30% each year at best which means that your average Iranian has lost about 80% of his purchasing power in the last 10 years.
There used to be a time (merely 20 years ago) that an Iranian family could live in a satisfactory way with only the husband working as the head of the household while the rest of the family lived comfortably and could afford whatever they wanted and more. Now in most families under 40 or 50 years of age, both the husband and the wife have to work only to barely make the ends meet at the end of the month.
It is crystal clear that this situation will end in more and more unrest once in a while.
When you take almost everything a person has from them, they will no longer have anything to lose and will be ready to take radical measures to survive. The younger generation do not have social freedoms, they have no money to make a family, they cannot afford to buy even simple things like an iPhone or even a cheap, domestic car, they can never buy a house of their own in any of major Iranian cities, they can barely go out of the country with the devaluation of the Iranian Rial, etc. And we are talking about a country with one of the highest reserves of oil and gas. Iranians are just not used to this type of living. If the situation does not return to before 2009, sooner or later, Iran will implode and regime change will happen. Add to this the constant propaganda and ethnic issues that the West is using to brainwash younger generations of Iranians.
The situation of Iran's nuclear program should be resolved as fast as possible. Either we should completely surrender and totally give up our nuclear program, shut down all of our nuclear facilities and stop uranium enrichment, or we should go fully nuclear and build megaton nukes and enter the path of North Korea until we can use our leverage in the energy market and our stronger nuclear position to negotiate with the West from the position of power.
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Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
please stick to the topic. your comment is better suited for the chill thread, economy thread or a new thread.
LongLiveIran
Registered Member
Read the last paragraph please. And my comment is exactly on point. Iran's nuclear doctrine should be based on facts. We have only 2 reasonable options: 1. Become a nuclear power, 2. Surrender and give up our decorative nuclear program.
You cannot negotiate with the West from a position of weakness. We do not have a real nuclear program. 10,000 SWU UF6/year does not constitute a nuclear program by any technical standard.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
how does building nuclear weapons solve any of the economic problems you correctly identified?
I agree with your dichotomy, though IRI seems to think that with enough patience and wisdom it can retain latent capability
LongLiveIran
Registered Member
It's a game of numbers, as you know very well. I'm not saying that building one or two nukes would change the situation. There's a certain nuclear threshold that will help Iran to negotiate with the West from a position of power, like China in 80s. It is possibly around 1 MT. The Islamic Republic seems quite reluctant to even get close to actual break-out, let alone nuclear deterrence.
Once Iran has exceed the yield threshold of 1-5 Megatons of TNT, Iran will be able to effectively threaten the US and the West's interests in the region independently.
We are trying to do that now, but whenever things get serious, we have to back off because we are worried about China and Russia stabbing us in the back and we know that they will do that eventually. We cannot rely on Russia or China forever. And Russia may very soon mend their ties with the US with Trump in the office.
We are different from North Korea in the sense that not only we are one of the world's largest owners of energy resources (oil, gas and helium), but we also have enough power over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el Mandeb Strait.
Our current nuclear program is purely decorative. 10,000 SWU/year is not enough for anything meaningful of civilian nature. We have the Bushehr nuclear reactor now and we are adding two more reactors at Bushehr before 2030. By then, we will need to increase our enrichment capacity to 560,000 SWU UF6/year to keep these reactors running with our own nuclear fuel while our enrichment capacity is below 12,000 SWU UF6/year as of now. Do you see the problem? With current numbers, it takes almost 5 decades for us to enrich enough uranium to keep our reactors running for just one year! If this is not just decorative, what is it then?
The only justifiable reason to keep our enrichment running is if we have a military nuclear program. There is no indication that Iran has a military nuclear program. We have a shortage of electricity in the country. We cannot enrich uranium to 60% only to dilute it or send it abroad at the end.
LongLiveIran
Registered Member
I hope it's thousands of IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges instead of IR-4 or IR-2m.
1,000 IR-4 centrifuges would merely add 3,300 SWU UF6/year.
1,000 IR-6 centrifuges would add about 5,250 SWU UF6/year.
1,000 IR-8 centrifuges would add about 18,000 - 20,000 SWU UF6/year. Although I can't find a reliable number for its output because it hasn't been mass-produced and tested before.
We need to reach 190,000 SWU UF6/year, based on Khamenei's order when Trump pulled out of the JCPOA.
- Thread starter
- #283
These are new generation centrifuges. Not 4's or 6's.
- Thread starter
- #284
I also want to emphasize the recent BoG resolution (attached)was far milder than previous ones yet it invoked an outsized Iranian response. All the BoG wanted this time was this:
(i) Deeply regretting that despite the above resolutions by the Board and many opportunitiesprovided by the Director General over five years, Iran has neither provided the Agency withtechnically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin atseveral undeclared locations in Iran nor informed the Agency of the current location(s) of nuclearmaterial and/or of contaminated equipment, and that instead stated it has declared all of thenuclear material and activities required under its Safeguards Agreement, which is inconsistentwith the Agency’s findings,
Now make of that as you wish.
(i) Deeply regretting that despite the above resolutions by the Board and many opportunitiesprovided by the Director General over five years, Iran has neither provided the Agency withtechnically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin atseveral undeclared locations in Iran nor informed the Agency of the current location(s) of nuclearmaterial and/or of contaminated equipment, and that instead stated it has declared all of thenuclear material and activities required under its Safeguards Agreement, which is inconsistentwith the Agency’s findings,
Now make of that as you wish.
LongLiveIran
Registered Member
Amen to that. Can't wait to see chains of IR-9 machines fed with UF6 gas.
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