Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

Indian news outlets are reporting today's quakes near Natanz were nuclear tests, but there are also reports of up to six aftershocks, initial quake was recorded at 5 on the Richter scale. This could be Israeli sabotage or a regular series of earthquakes, I doubt testing would be done so close to Natanz.
 
KHORSHIDSIYAH1488 said:
Indian news outlets are reporting today's quakes near Natanz were nuclear tests, but there are also reports of up to six aftershocks, initial quake was recorded at 5 on the Richter scale. This could be Israeli sabotage or a regular series of earthquakes, I doubt testing would be done so close to Natanz.
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these are low quality sources (almost as bad as Iranian news outlets) and should be ignored
 
Mehdipersian said:
Earthquakes happen a lot in Iran
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Yes and only 1 India channel News Nation was showing this news.... today there's no discussion at all.... sometimes they spread fake news to increase TRP....
 
We have been hearing about quakes in iran ever since TP2...this is the 3rd such time I recall.

There are always earthquakes and tremors in Iran.....unless the west makes a big deal out of it I would assume it's just an earthquake.
 
Mobius said:
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A 10km borehole is incredibly difficult to do and intel agencies would have known about such an activity?

It took the soviets 20 years to dig 12Km before they gave up...
 
Liquidator said:
A 10km borehole is incredibly difficult to do and intel agencies would have known about such an activity?

It took the soviets 20 years to dig 12Km before they gave up...
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10km is also a general benchmark number they give when they can't determine exactly how deep the earthquake was. It's not needed for a test.

Though strategically it is smart because if Iran did indeed dig 10km deep for these tests they'd be plausibly deniable, I don't think a country like Iran has the means or time to dig these holes throughout the country to test nukes.
 
OldTwilight said:
trump in his letter only give 2 months to Iran to either accept his foolish request or war ...

we can translate it that we only have 2 months to create several operational nuclear warhead.
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IRI's policy is still 'no deal, no nukes, no war'. but messages are being exchanged in the back channels.

Trump does not want a war, but he supports strong military action to prevent war. so if he thinks IRI is crazy enough to create a war if the US launches any form of strikes in Iran, this may deter him from the strike. but if he thinks IRI is weak and will only do a symbolic response and he can strike inside Iran without triggering full war, he is more likely to do it.

you can draw your own conclusions how American leaders interpret IRI's failure to respond to Israel bombing strategic targets throughout Iran and killing 5 Iranians (and killing Fakhrizadeh, 5+ top nuclear scientists, etc) and the likely impact on Trump's decision making calculus
 
Persian Gulf said:
IRI's policy is still 'no deal, no nukes, no war'. but messages are being exchanged in the back channels.

Trump does not want a war, but he supports strong military action to prevent war. so if he thinks IRI is crazy enough to create a war if the US launches any form of strikes in Iran, this may deter him from the strike. but if he thinks IRI is weak and will only do a symbolic response and he can strike inside Iran without triggering full war, he is more likely to do it.

you can draw your own conclusions how American leaders interpret IRI's failure to respond to Israel bombing strategic targets throughout Iran and killing 5 Iranians (and killing Fakhrizadeh, 5+ top nuclear scientists, etc) and the likely impact on Trump's decision making calculus
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Iranians , nuclear scientists, military commanders are just tool for IRI so called elites to only rule ... nothing more ....
 
Unfortunately, Trump already seems to have reached the conclusion that Iran will never fight back no matter what is done.
As if to prove this, unlike during the first term of the Trump administration, there has been no opposition to an attack on Iran from the U.S. military or the Pentagon.
This is a very clear difference.
A consensus has been formed, not only by Trump personally but also by the U.S. society as a whole, that the Iranian government no longer dares to fight back and can launch a war with no risk.
In this way, pacifists instead invite war.
And yet, just a few days ago, the Iranian government made a feeble statement that it is ready to return to the nuclear agreement, a statement that would make the war-seeking devil drool and rejoice.
 
Garcia Sea said:
A consensus has been formed, not only by Trump personally but also by the U.S. society as a whole, that the Iranian government no longer dares to fight back and can launch a war with no risk.
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Thas is a oxymoron. If they reached such conclusions they would attack Iran many years ago (during his first tenure) or never send a letter for trying to reach a deal.
 
lightning f57 said:

Iran Unveils Missile Systems on Strategic Gulf Islands​


Seems like a defensive posture to deal with any threats.
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This is the important takeaway:

"In remarks broadcast on Friday, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said Trump was trying to head off armed conflict with Iran by building trust with Tehran.
He said the president’s letter was not intended as a threat."

The US is just trying to bluff it's way into negotiations.
 
Garcia Sea said:
Unfortunately, Trump already seems to have reached the conclusion that Iran will never fight back no matter what is done.
As if to prove this, unlike during the first term of the Trump administration, there has been no opposition to an attack on Iran from the U.S. military or the Pentagon.
This is a very clear difference.
A consensus has been formed, not only by Trump personally but also by the U.S. society as a whole, that the Iranian government no longer dares to fight back and can launch a war with no risk.
In this way, pacifists instead invite war.
And yet, just a few days ago, the Iranian government made a feeble statement that it is ready to return to the nuclear agreement, a statement that would make the war-seeking devil drool and rejoice.
Click to expand...
The Islamic Republic has been infiltrated with neoliberals and eslahtalabs on CIA and Mossad payroll that want Iran de-nuked, and they have a proverbial gun to Khamenei's head because many of them are also within the Sepah. Even Reza Pahlavi has extensive connections with these West-oriented Sepahis.

I personally think the ship for nukes has sailed and won't return.
 
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