Trump’s proposal will require the militants to release all Israeli hostages within 72 hours of a ceasefire coming into effect, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli military forces to a buffer zone along the perimeter, and a surge of humanitarian aid. It also requires Israel to free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, many serving life sentences, which Hamas could frame as a significant win.
Another concern for Hamas is the vague promise of Israeli withdrawals, though the clear statement that there will be no annexation or occupation of Gaza by Israel was welcomed by one source close to Hamas.
Some analysts say divisions within Hamas are often exaggerated.
“I don’t think there is a real split between Gaza, the West Bank and the outside leadership. They all agree on opposing the disarmament because the armed struggle is such a deep principle in their nature and identity,” said Michael Milshtein, an expert in Hamas at Tel Aviv University.
Hamas has suffered very significant losses in the war. Thousands of fighters have been killed, along with almost all senior military leaders. A report by ACLED, the independent violence monitoring group, found at least 40 commanders and key operatives in Hamas’s military wing had been killed by Israeli airstrikes since March. Their deaths have left only one senior commander from Hamas’s pre-7 October military council still in command, ACLED said.
But Hamas continues guerrilla operations and maintains fragments of governance in the absence of any alternative. Humanitarian officials in Gaza said the group still had a strong presence in Gaza City, the “central camps” farther south and the coastal zone of al-Mawasi.
Hamas, which was founded in 1987, has recruited thousands of new fighters who, though inexperienced and poorly equipped, can inflict casualties on Israeli forces.
Milshtein said that, according to military sources, 90% of Hamas commanders had been killed, 97% of its rockets destroyed or launched, but only 40% of the group’s extensive tunnel network had been destroyed.
“Hamas have adjusted to the new conditions. They are active in areas where the [Israeli military] has declared Hamas is totally defeated, but you can’t totally erase Hamas. They have metamorphosed and they have survived,” Milshtein said.
Some within Hamas are committed to rejecting the Trump plan outright.
“There is a trend from the military wing, especially the younger fighters, which wants to keep fighting,” Lovatt said. “Their view is that Israel is struggling strategically: the mobilisation of reservists is a huge burden, elections are due within a year or so, there is growing international and domestic pressure … So, for them, it’s just a question of who will hold out the longest.”
Turkey and Qatar putting pressure on group to make concessions – but condition it disarm is a sticking point
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