Israel’s Genocide in Gaza | 2023- till present

[Persian Gulf]

@j_hungary you gave an estimate of casualties and how the invasion would go near the start, do you want to update that assessment now?

can you also provide a similar one for an Israeli invasion of south Lebanon, presume up to Litani river?

 

[Persian Gulf]

I believe they're trying to make a power play here. Their northern settlers left at their own discretion. They can come back any time to the north. It's low intensity warfare. Israel is using that excuse, because it was contemplating a preemptive strike on Hezbollah earlier in the conflict. And now is considering a war to weaken Hezbollah, imo, and trying to build its case to the international community using this BS excuse.

The settlers in the north aren't being blow to smithereens nor being forced to evacuate or face death like what the poor people of Gaza are facing. It's that Israel is trying to decide if it should go at Hezbollah now or wait for later. And they need intelligence on Hezbollah's capabilities which would be had in the event of a full blown war. Since it's been 18 years since either side got into a major confrontation.

Imo, they're still in the decision phase. And I don't believe they'll actually condition that at the table. They will instead say move forces back 5 km and cease fire. Then we will unilaterally ceasefire. Without a agreement.

many left voluntarily but many also were evacuated and cannot return

even moving back 5km is not possible for Hezbollah. Hezbollah fighters/members don't just deploy in the south, they live there. they were born there, raised there, and still live there now. they literally cannot be taken away from the south unless every Lebanese community in the south is removed

 

[Falcon29]

I think an IDF attack on HZ is a big mistake and I am happy to see Israel making this mistake. Hezbollah surely has planned for a war with Israel since 2006, Israel might be militarily stronger, but this is asymmetric warfare and different tactics will be used to inflict large casualties on the Idf and drain their military and resources to the bone. I would love to see Israel get a taste of their own medicine when HZ bombs their population centers.

Back in 2006 it was unthinkable to see attacks and population displacement in israel, and today it is a normal everyday occurrence. This means HZ has gotten stronger and Israel weaker. The fact HZ managed to create a buffer zone INSIDE of israel is a massive win and shows the weakening of the Zionist entity. The fact the HZ has hit dozens of IDF bases and infrastructure along the border with Lebanon while the idf responses were weak also shows a lot. Let's not forget the groups in Syria, West Bank can blow up, and continued operations in Gaza, the resistance in Gaza will not stop fighting just because the IDF ends an operation, as long as they are in Gaza they should be targeted day and night.

Once Israel gets through these non-state actors awaits Iran, a worn out Israel stands no match. One day when the West isn't as strong, and they won't be able to defend Israel as today, Israel will receive a bill, with interest. Therefore, Israel should stop planting bad omens and instead work towards a two state solution. If it thinks it has the support of there regional Arab puppet leaders it is wrong because their time will come to an end as well.. sooner or later. Then what?

Imo, Hezbollah was prepared for a war with Israel, but not this kind of situation that the Gaza war brought to the region. Especially after seeing how Israel crossed every and any kind of line in Gaza. Without hardly any legal or practical consequences. Israel essentially waged a whole war on a civilian population in Gaza to try achieving its political goals and 'deterrence'. The definition of terrorism. Being carried by a 'professional', Western backed army.

They're essentially now established a equation, of:

If we can't achieve our political goals without resorting to mass terrorism, then we will slaughter your civilians and civilian infrastructure to achieve it one way or another. Which puts us into unknown territory.

Hezbollah is in a tough spot if Israel actually means to press forward. I don't think Hezbollah will unleash everything, which I believe is a mistake, and won't target Israeli population centers like Tel Aviv if Israel keeps its operation limited to southern Lebanon. Which again, I believe is a big mistake.

If Israel does wage war on Lebanon. It will announce it in phases. To make Hezbollah believe it has a way out of full blown confrontation and that way it makes Hezbollah stand down, while their weapons depots and strategic weapons continue to be targeted. Israel will announce one short phase, but start moving on to other phases. Without declaring a actual state of war like they did in Gaza. This is intended to deceive Hezbollah. If I was in Hezbollah's shoes. Id continue saying we don't seek war. But even in the event of a 'limited operation ', we will use our full force to respond. Including targeting Tel Aviv. I would not hold back as I personally am familiar with Israel's tactics and strategies.

 

[Falcon29]

many left voluntarily but many also were evacuated and cannot return

even moving back 5km is not possible for Hezbollah. Hezbollah fighters/members don't just deploy in the south, they live there. they were born there, raised there, and still live there now. they literally cannot be taken away from the south unless every Lebanese community in the south is removed

Agreed, which is why the Israeli demand is irrational. And it's irrational by design. To justify a war on Lebanon. Problem is US for Netanyahu and his gang, US is not willing to fight the war for them at the moment. But we can't underestimate the Zionist Blinkens determination to fight for Israel 'as a Jew' in his own words.

 

[UKBengali]

I think an IDF attack on HZ is a big mistake and I am happy to see Israel making this mistake. Hezbollah surely has planned for a war with Israel since 2006, Israel might be militarily stronger, but this is asymmetric warfare and different tactics will be used to inflict large casualties on the Idf and drain their military and resources to the bone. I would love to see Israel get a taste of their own medicine when HZ bombs their population centers.

Back in 2006 it was unthinkable to see attacks and population displacement in israel, and today it is a normal everyday occurrence. This means HZ has gotten stronger and Israel weaker. The fact HZ managed to create a buffer zone INSIDE of israel is a massive win and shows the weakening of the Zionist entity. The fact the HZ has hit dozens of IDF bases and infrastructure along the border with Lebanon while the idf responses were weak also shows a lot. Let's not forget the groups in Syria, West Bank can blow up, and continued operations in Gaza, the resistance in Gaza will not stop fighting just because the IDF ends an operation, as long as they are in Gaza they should be targeted day and night.

Once Israel gets through these non-state actors awaits Iran, a worn out Israel stands no match. One day when the West isn't as strong, and they won't be able to defend Israel as today, Israel will receive a bill, with interest. Therefore, Israel should stop planting bad omens and instead work towards a two state solution. If it thinks it has the support of there regional Arab puppet leaders it is wrong because their time will come to an end as well.. sooner or later. Then what?

Good post but there is not going to be a single inch of Palestinian land ever given up to the Zionists now.

They need to leave the ME voluntarily or will be killed and hounded out. Their choice.

 

[Falcon29]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Davey Crockett]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Flames In The Desert]

Heres a particularly batsh!t crazy one,even by the "standards" of the west these days.

Victims of Hamas attack sue Iran, Syria, North Korea in U.S. court


Naturally this could potentially open the way to the us being sued by the victims of the Mek and Al-nusra attacks,not to mention the syrian victims of islamist groups supported by israel.

 

[Falcon29]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[j_hungary]

@j_hungary you gave an estimate of casualties and how the invasion would go near the start, do you want to update that assessment now?

can you also provide a similar one for an Israeli invasion of south Lebanon, presume up to Litani river?

It wasn't my assessment. I said before the entire thing kick off, IDF run the number to the DoD which a Colonel (he is now a Brigadier General) I know told me they were expecting 150,000-300,000 Palestinian casualty (Killed/Wounded/Missing) with different plan and about 20,000 IDF Casualty.

I would say the number is right about the ballpark figure I would have gone for if the direction of the war being unchanged.

By the way, the current figure most intelligence agency estimate is quite close to the lower ceiling, we have between 120,000 to 160,000 Palestinian casualty and about 10000 IDF Casualty at this point.