Israel’s Genocide in Gaza | 2023- till present

[Aziqbal]

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May Allah send them his help

I hope and pray Hezbollah recovers from the last few days of attacks

Israel has gone in hard and they have lost a lot of good men

For sure man to man Israel doesn’t stand a chance

 

[Persian Gulf]

i don't think an all-out war is likely at this point.

It would be sub-optimal for Hezbollah to engage now, without knowing how much and how deep the compromise was. You don't expect a conventional war between Hezbollah or Lebanon against Israel, because they will lose big, and intelligence/counter-intelligence is primal in any irregular warfare. The Pager and Icom thing shook that aspect for Hezbollah to the core,

I personally would disengage if my organisation were compromised like that, effectively there are no comm (or trustable comm) and there are no counterintelligence aspect for Hezbollah, frankly, they don't know which phone they can use and who they can trust at this moment. The assassination and the pager thing is very clearly a one two punch from the IDF, there are NO WAY Hezbollah Comm and/or C4 structure wasn't compromised.

You need to at least wait until you can rebuild your comm network, then there are a realistic chance to fight, and that could be years.

I disagree. only c. 3000 new pagers (likely from same shipment) were compromised. old pagers were not impacted. Hezbollah has 100,000 members.

 

[StormOfTruth]

The major operations carried out by the Palestinian resistance groups on Saturday, September 21, are as follows:
Al-Qassam Brigades’ operations:

• Targeted two buildings where a number of Israeli soldiers were holed up with four anti-personnel and anti-fortification shells, east of the Al-Tanour neighborhood in Rafah city in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Targeted a D9 military bulldozer with a Yassin-105 shell east of the Al-Tanour neighborhood in Rafah city, southern Gaza Strip.

Al-Quds Brigades’ operations :

• Engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli infantry force using appropriate weapons in Wadi Ezz al-Din, Jenin, occupied West Bank.
• Engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces on the axes of Khallet al-Sawha, al-Bayader, the eastern neighborhood, and Wadi Ezz al-Din in Jenin, occupied West Bank.
• Engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces storming the Khallet Al-Suha neighborhood in Jenin, occupied West Bank.

 

[BHAN85]

Hezbollah beeper blasts in Lebanon were not close to being exposed | The Jerusalem Post

The Jerusalem Post has exclusively learned that whoever caused the sabotage did not pick the timing because of a sudden discovery by Hezbollah.

www.jpost.com

This confirm pagers explosions were a deliberate provocation to happen NOW, when they want to move war to north.

 

[j_hungary]

I don't think you have been following this conflict well. Hezbollah didn't want, doesn't want, will not want an all out war. It is Israel which has been wanting it for a long time but in such a way that Americans would get dragged in.

I think I said multiple time , even before the IDF operation in Gaza begin that Hezbollah does not want an engagement with Israel. And it takes a lot more than just thousands of rocket to go to war with Israel. And whoever cross the line first probably loses.

 

[j_hungary]

I disagree. only c. 3000 new pagers (likely from same shipment) were compromised. old pagers were not impacted. Hezbollah has 100,000 members.

It's not the number of pager affected, but question like

How long ago the comm network was compromised?

Was there anything other than Comm network that had been compromised?

Did the IDF did anything to the Comm network other than the pager or explosive?

How extensive the effect was and etc

In the field of intelligence, anonymity is key, I don't show you my hand unless I need to, so you don't know my capability. And when you enemy is doing the opposite, then you need to think about why they are showing your hand now, because that's actually more dangerous than not showing you anything, because they are showing you what they can done without. The pager thing is a "Throw Away" they can do without, by exposing to you they can do this. And if they throw away that capability without losing a heartbeat, then you need to think, real hard, real deep, what they have on you and you don't know.

The alternative is IDF is just a giant moron and throw away their trump card and that's the best they can do, well, if you are comfortable to believe this is the case., then I don't have anything more to say.

 

[Persian Gulf]

It's not the number of pager affected, but question like

How long ago the comm network was compromised?

since they know it was only latest batch of 3000 pages imported 5 months ago that's quite easy to isolate

Was there anything other than Comm network that had been compromised?

this is a bigger problem I agree

The pager thing is a "Throw Away" they can do without, by exposing to you they can do this. And if they throw away that capability without losing a heartbeat, then you need to think, real hard, real deep, what they have on you and you don't know.

The alternative is IDF is just a giant moron and throw away their trump card and that's the best they can do, well, if you are comfortable to believe this is the case., then I don't have anything more to say.

there were some reports that Hezbollah was about to identify the sabotage so they had to rush it. impossible for us to say but it would not surprise me if Israel had more surprises in store

 

[Cash gk]

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[j_hungary]

since they know it was only latest batch of 3000 pages imported 5 months ago that's quite easy to isolate

But then how do you know only c3000 or the new one is affected? Without knowing where the capability lead and how long ago it has started.

They show that to you by exploding 3000 pagers, that does not mean it's only that 3000 pager, in fact, the very next day they exploded some 300 (or 500, I don't remember) ICOM walkie. That show you not just one thing was compromised.

I mean sure ,if you did a full count, and make sure it just the last 5 months, but can you be sure now that it just affect the new stuff?

this is a bigger problem I agree


there were some reports that Hezbollah was about to identify the sabotage, so they had to rush it. impossible for us to say but it would not surprise me if Israel had more surprises in store

As I said, when they show you what they can do, that is the exact time you need to pay attention, because they burn that by showing you they can do that, so for them, it's not that important enough to hold on to that, so they show you they can do that.

Can they do something else? That depends on how vigilant you are

 

[Shawnee]

Can the great nation of Israel bring peace home in less than another 3 years?
When will northerners go back home? When?

It's not the number of pager affected, but question like

How long ago the comm network was compromised?

Was there anything other than Comm network that had been compromised?

Did the IDF did anything to the Comm network other than the pager or explosive?

How extensive the effect was and etc

In the field of intelligence, anonymity is key, I don't show you my hand unless I need to, so you don't know my capability. And when you enemy is doing the opposite, then you need to think about why they are showing your hand now, because that's actually more dangerous than not showing you anything, because they are showing you what they can done without. The pager thing is a "Throw Away" they can do without, by exposing to you they can do this. And if they throw away that capability without losing a heartbeat, then you need to think, real hard, real deep, what they have on you and you don't know.

The alternative is IDF is just a giant moron and throw away their trump card and that's the best they can do, well, if you are comfortable to believe this is the case., then I don't have anything more to say.

 

[Cash gk]

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[TruthSeeker]

Hezbollah beeper blasts in Lebanon were not close to being exposed | The Jerusalem Post

The Jerusalem Post has exclusively learned that whoever caused the sabotage did not pick the timing because of a sudden discovery by Hezbollah.

www.jpost.com

Hezbollah beeper blasts: Timing not due to plan being exposed, sources say - exclusive​

The Jerusalem Post has exclusively learned that whoever caused the sabotage did not pick the timing because of a sudden discovery by Hezbollah.​

By YONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 22, 2024 16:38Updated: SEPTEMBER 22, 2024 17:38

The timing of the Hezbollah beeper and other device explosions last week, which wounded around 3,000-4,000 operatives, was not due to the sabotage being exposed by the organization but carefully planned, the Jerusalem Post has learned.

In the aftermath of the explosions across Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, some reports circulated that whoever caused the explosion - attributed by numerous foreign media outlets to Israel, with large aspects of the saga confirmed independently by the Jerusalem Post (which has significant Western sources) - would have preferred a later and more coordinated timing.

Under this narrative, foreign reports said that Israeli intelligence rushed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu around Tuesday of last week - with the entire Israeli media talking about a major unspecified "security event," to tell him that the device explosion sabotage capability was at use it or lose it a moment.

In other words, some Hezbollah operatives had uncovered aspects of the sabotage and if they announced it nationwide, the organization might rid itself of the devices before they could be exploded.

This narrative made sense with how surprised both the Israeli and Lebanese public seemed by the episode after Jerusalem had allowed Hezbollah to fire rockets on its northern front for 11 months without taking any consistent major steps to force a change beyond limited retaliations.

It is noteworthy that in the days leading up to Tuesday of last week, both Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made public statements about elevating the push to return Israel's northern residents to their homes to become one of the primary missions of the current war.

This came after Gallant declared Hamas's last of 24 battalions in Rafah defeated on August 21.

In other words, for the weeks and days leading up to last week, Israel was shifting its ground and air forces heavily toward the northern border after having focused most of them on Gaza since October 2023.

In this narrative, the exploding devices set the stage for sending Hezbollah reeling on its backheels, leading into the possibly even more significant attacks that the IDF has admitted to since Friday.

Without beepers and cell phones to communicate, suddenly, Hezbollah Radwan special forces commander Ibrahim Aqil and around 20 of his top sub-commanders needed to meet in person to develop retaliation plans.

Assassination of Aqil, barrage of rockets​

When they did on Friday, the IDF killed Aqil and somewhere between 13 and 15 other critical sub-commanders.

Over Thursday through Sunday, the IDF carried out four major waves of attacks, wearing down Hezbollah's rocket launcher inventory by destroying over 500 rocket launchers and many thousands of rockets.

It is also noteworthy, looking back at Tuesday, that this was the day that the government and the Shin Bet convinced an Israeli court to lift the gag order on a year-old Hezbollah plot to assassinate former defense minister Moshe Yaalon.

Although there was a new recent plot connected indirectly to the old Yaalon plot, which was given as the excuse for rolling out the indictment relating to those who tried to kill Yaalon specifically on Tuesday, the timing was also potentially advantageous leading into the start of a major Israeli escalation against Hezbollah.

The Post has also learned that there were multiple stages in planning the beeper and electronic device explosive sabotage, some dating back years, and some dating back months, with both narratives having been reported by different foreign media outlets.

The discrepancy between the narratives appears to be a well-known intelligence dilemma.

For example, in the book Target Tehran, it was disclosed that the Mossad first hatched its plan to seize Iran's secret nuclear archives in 2016. However, these plans had to be altered based on changing physical and other circumstances in 2017.

The Post understands that different stages of the explosive devices operation necessitated critical adjustments to the plans at different points along the way, including some, as reported in foreign media, only around five months before.

There remains a discrepancy regarding how the explosions were carried out.

Most foreign reports have said that small amounts of explosive material were slipped into the devices by unidentified agents working at a shell company posing as part of a Hungarian company, which itself was licensed by a Taiwanese company, in order to produce and distribute the devices.

However, some sources have told the Post that the sabotage would be most likely doable by "playing" with the lithium in these devices, which any engineer of a certain level could do without any fancy cutting-edge cyber hacking capabilities.

These devices have a built-in balance of electrical resistance between two poles at a very high level. If the current is played with so it can only flow from one end to another, the resistance could eventually drop low enough to cause a short circuit between the plus side and minus side of the relevant battery, which could eventually explode.

Sources indicated that the tactics used in the sabotage against Hezbollah have existed for a long time.

Questioned whether Israel needs to worry about its enemies now attempting such attacks against it, sources indicated that this is always a risk any time a new capability is used publicly.

Many have noted that Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have used Israel's once great dominance in drones against it to reverse engineer their own fleets of threats against the Jewish state.

Sources said the key was to always remain a few steps ahead of one's adversaries, such that there will be a defense or better attack that can overcome those adversaries if and when they attempt to reverse engineer an attack used against them.

 

[j_hungary]

Can the great nation of Israel bring peace home in less than another 3 years?
When will northerners go back home? When?

sure, you can say that, meanwhile no where in Lebanon is safe for Hezbollah, are we expecting another batch of exploding pager? Or are we expecting more assassination? Or exploding Teapot? Toaster? where can they go back to then?

 

[925boy]

I think I said multiple time , even before the IDF operation in Gaza begin that Hezbollah does not want an engagement with Israel.

Israel also didnt want any engagement with Hezbollah- hence why it has threatened to invade Lebanon for over 6 months but only started taking real steps to do so about now.

Israel saw the 100s of thousands of displaced citizens from northern Israel not being able to go back to their homes (because Israel's threats and strikes on Hezbollah didnt stop Hezbollah from attacking northern Israel).

SO no, based on the current war results in Gaza, you are STILL putting Israel's military on a high horse when it has been exposed as a bloated, corrupt, misadjusted, genocidal military.

Why did you come back to this thread? either way, several people will correct your bias and misunderstandings about Israel's current war.

And it takes a lot more than just thousands of rocket to go to war with Israel. And whoever cross the line first probably loses.

1. Hezbollah has 100s of thousands or rockets, so according to your logic, they are ready to fight Israel. next point?

2. Gaza proves this to be false- small Gaza with limited capabilities has essentially handicapped the ISraeli military, or almost. recruitment for IDF is harder now, soldiers dont want to go to the frontline, Israel's IAD isn't performing well anymore, Hezbollah's rockets are landing at their targets like Christmas gifts, so NO, miss me with all your false information despite reality on ground saying the opposite.

What military aims has Israel achieved since Oct 11? with all its support, equipment, money, resources, even Israel's allies admit the wars aren't going well for Israel, but its too late, Iran can't "turn off the cooker" on Israel's aZZ, not after genociding Gaza in front of the world.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Victory over Hamas in Gaza hasn't been achieved, but it's within reach - opinion

The continuation of fighting until Sinwar is eliminated, the hostages are freed, and Hamas is defeated—will constitute a total victory, and this is within reach.

www.jpost.com

Victory over Hamas in Gaza hasn't been achieved, but it's within reach - opinion​

The continuation of fighting until Sinwar is eliminated, the hostages are freed, and Hamas is defeated—will constitute a total victory, and this is within reach.​

By MOSHE POZAILOVSEPTEMBER 22, 2024 11:22

Many of the same military officials and commentators who previously claimed that "Hamas is deterred" now assert that Hamas has been defeated.

According to them, its brigades, commanders, and parts of its leadership have been eliminated, and its "military" structure has ceased to exist.

At the same time, they do not deny the reality that our forces encounter armed terrorists daily and that rockets are still occasionally fired, including at Ashkelon. However, they firmly state that if we can create a political alternative to Hamas, the mission will then be complete.

This week, the IDF published a document sent by the Khan Younis brigade commander to Yahya Sinwar and his brother Mohammed in May of this year.

The letter indicated that although Hamas is in severe distress, it is still functioning at various levels and is working to recover and rearm.

Channel 11 reported earlier this month that the pace of Hamas's recovery in Gaza, especially in the northern part of the strip, is "faster than the dismantling of its capabilities." What is clear from the letter is that Hamas has not yet been defeated.

The letter describes the organization's dire situation: "We have lost 90-95% of our rocket capability; we have lost 60% of our personal weapons; we have lost at least 65%-70% of our anti-tank capabilities; and most importantly, we have lost at least 50% of our fighters, and now only 25% remain."

A complex reality on the ground​

While the document seems to show that the organization's forces are in crisis, possibly on the verge of collapse, the reality on the ground is more complex:

• Hamas continues guerrilla warfare, operating from command and control centers disguised as civilian institutions such as humanitarian shelters, schools, and hospitals, which they have set up in the heart of civilian areas.
• The organization tirelessly works to refresh its ranks and recruit new activists, especially youth. Crime families and clans collect taxes, distribute humanitarian aid, and work for "public order" while receiving salaries from Hamas in return.
• Hamas is recovering, primarily in areas where the IDF is not currently operating, including the northern Gaza Strip, Khan Younis, and Mawasi. Additionally, the organization has returned to the Shifa Hospital.
• Hamas continues to exploit the residents of Gaza, charging them about 20% of the humanitarian aid that enters the strip. According to estimates, Hamas has accumulated about half a billion dollars in this manner.
• Hamas uses brutal force on the population to instill fear, including public executions of thieves or those suspected of collaborating with Israel, as well as Gazans who dare to protest against Hamas rule.

In May 2005, then-Brigadier General Gadi Eisenkot wrote in his end-of-duty report as commander of the Judea and Samaria Division that "it is appropriate to remove the concept of strategic and systemic defeat from the terminology of the conflict."

This did not prevent Benny Gantz from declaring that "Hamas has been defeated" just before he and Eisenkot left the cabinet and before the IDF entered Rafah and the Philadelphi Route.

In contrast, the war cabinet takes a different approach—a perspective aligned with the philosophy of the late Professor Yehoshafat Harkabi, former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, who defined defeat as "a state in which the enemy's capability has been eradicated, leaving him in a state of helplessness, and he surrenders" (War and Strategy, 1990).

General Douglas MacArthur, commander of US forces in World War II and the Korean War wrote about abandoning the idea of defeat: "There is no substitute for victory. Defeating the enemy is a moral and military necessity in which we must bring the enemy to a state of utter despair."

Yehoshafat Harkabi was right: Despite the IDF's impressive achievements, as long as Hamas retains the ability to harm Israel and hold our sons and daughters hostage, Hamas has not been defeated.

At this point in time, it is impossible to determine who might serve as a governmental alternative to Hamas.

What must be clear to whoever follows Hamas—and to any future governing mechanism, whatever it may be—is that the trauma and memory of the destruction caused by those who challenged our very existence and massacred our citizens and all their accomplices must be ingrained for generations to come.

The reality test proves that there will be no alternative—local, regional, or international—to Hamas until it is first defeated.

After Hamas is defeated, a worthy alternative can take shape. The defeat of Hamas (and Islamic Jihad), the only branch of the Muslim Brotherhood still in power in the Arab world, will strengthen the Abraham Accords, which are successfully passing the test of war in Gaza. Defeating Hamas will provide a crucial foundation for their expansion.

It is important to emphasize that military defeat alone is insufficient for Hamas. A psychological component must be added, in which Hamas loses both the ability and the will to continue the struggle.

Replacing the regime requires a complex and broad process incorporating elements of security, society, and economy. Only after these two goals are achieved can a stable and significant outcome be ensured, one that will affect the regional environment for many years to come.

The continuation of the fighting until Sinwar is eliminated, the hostages are freed, and Hamas is defeated—will constitute a total victory, and this is within reach.

Moshe Pozailov, Misgav Institute for National Security. Former senior Shin Bet official.