Israel’s Genocide in Gaza | 2023- till present

[Sarhang]

Good points. Didn't think of that. But how would they know or estimate timing? Or is it a ploy to try to delay or cancel such a strike ?

They intercept communication that suggest military moves.

Or just made up lies to deter any moves.

It's a combination of both.

 

[Anza]

I repeat

Russian help would be crucial for Iran/Resistance.

US helps Israel

Russia should help Iran.

Let's balance things out.

Invite Russian nukes in Tehran to be stationed as long as Iran is not a nuclear power.

If Russians can station their nukes in Belarus then they can station in Tehran too....

Also China and Pakistan should come forward and provide Pakistanis air defence capabilities and Chinese early warning systems and SAMs would be great additions to IRANIAN defence capabilities.

 

[Falcon29]

Israel has been targeting Palestinian officials and figures over last few days. Alongside Lebanese ones. We don't know whom was targeted yet.
..
..
A second raid on a building near the Gondola roundabout, near the Kuwaiti embassy in Beirut.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[mythbuster]

I have been watching this closely and the efficiency with which Israel has eliminated Hezbollah commander is astonishing and naturally this has skyrocketed Netanyahu's standing in Israel. He is riding the wave big time.

I have also questioned why Iran is so timid and I see that many members have the same sentiment. But then I started wondering....if I was part of the decision makers in Tehran...what would I do?

On the immediate outset, everyone wants Iran to do something along the lines of how Israel wants it to do so and the wider west. Nothing would give more pleasure to them to have the excuse and start bombing Iran and clearly Iran is not playing that game.

Hezbollah is greatly weakened but not eliminated and probably has instructions to hold the ground for the time being.

Then we have Netanyahu openly stating to the Iranians to engage in revolt and dissent while also indicating their ability to reach far into Iran and to remove said "tyrants" is a very strong and clear message that Israel feels emboldened to take on Iran soon.

So, gentlemen, I would like to say....considering the rapid erosion of Iranian Axis of Resistance and thus its strategic deterrence....I strongly believe the lack of response or no response from Iran means only one thing.

Couple this with the fact that Hezbollah is not launching most of its rocket arsenal but rather in piecemeal indicates a hidden strategy.....they are waiting for something.....something big of a signal.

I believe the Iranians are weaponising their enriched Uranium to build upto 5 bombs. Some opensource intelligence gives an indication but this also tells us they can be off on their estimates.

https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential

If the war in Lebanon becomes too serious such that Hezbollah actively starts losing the ground war, I strongly believe that Iran is going to conduct a limited nuclear test close to the border with Syria and Iraq. It would be strong enough to let the Americans feel it and done in a manner where it would be clear it is not an earthquake. I expect silence straight after......a clear signal and sign that something has changed. Iran will continue developing at least 3 bombs and weaponise and marry to their ballistic missiles. It will show it and the enemies will know it. Once it is ready, it may declare it and it will do so to regain the strategic deterrence.

Here is what will happen if they do:

1. It will cause a massive shift in calculus for Israel and once it is out Netanyahu will be the leader who pushed Iran to get a nuclear weapon. That will be his political death. His politics of protecting Israel with the endless war and bloodshed would have culminated in forcing an enemy to develop weapons that can actually remove the jewish state.

2. Israel will be forced to announce its nuclear weapons.

3. The American will mull over whether to start bombing Iran. BUT Russia will welcome Iran to the club and will clearly be open to using nuclear weapons simply by updating its doctrinal use to cover strategic allies. Russia simply can not lose Iran especially in the ongoing Ukraine war.

4. Iran will take a very clear stance and a cool one like its president at the UN. Giving no indications of war or war like stance but of peace. It will maintain this posture but will brandish the nukes openly.

5. If war is still progressing, Iran will let Hezbollah unleash massive barrages of ballistic missiles, held in reserve, under the cover of the new strategic deterrent.

6. Iran will call for a ceasefire under fair terms. The GCC and other regional players will panic and will push for the ceasefire. The US will have to halt arms supplies to Israel to prevent Netanyahu to continue the conflict.

7. American bases will be targeted putting more pressure.

8. Iran will demand war reparations to be paid by Israel towards Palestine and Lebanon. To remove its forces and to agree to a two state solution.

9. Resistance to this demand will likely see the increase in missile strikes and Iran will actively hit Israel if its forces are targeted while maintaining its nuclear posture.

10. Hitting Iranian nuclear silos or launch vehicles would be extremely difficult due to the mountainous terrain demanding a committed air attack risking the launch of nukes.

11. GCC running to Pakistan to sell them nukes....which our army would sell on the cheap to pocket all the money.

12. Iran would put demands on the US to end sanctions.


All of this or some of this or other events not predicted would take place between now and the US elections. This is the time when Iran will be forced to become a nuclear state.

The silence from Iran is deafening and it is likely this reason. I hope I am wrong because this would be the biggest change in middle eastern dynamics and likely the world.

Dream on till the dream comes true......btw , cheers for a succinct post .

 

[Falcon29]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[LeGenD]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Reichmarshal]

From the river in Babylon to the river in the land of the pharaohs....

That the isreali flag

 

[Falcon29]

This could be one big game by the US-Israel. Fears of unrest due to 2024 election/Trump election. And they want to get rid of Iranian file now (nuclear program) before that. It would also keep Biden in power. Just a thought.

 

[mythbuster]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Hezbulla will be history sooner than anyone thinks ..... question is , are the Iranians going to provide an excuse for Israelis to go after Assad and houthis in Yemen ?

 

[Falcon29]

Jordan pushing for Gaza ceasefire ??

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Falcon29]

Israel claims Iranian strike will target these sites:
..
..

New York Times quoting Israeli officials: The Iranian attack will be on 3 military air bases and an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Falcon29]

Israel may attack Iran and claim it did 'preemptive' strike. Despite no plans by Iran to attack anyone.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[LeGenD]

View attachment 68859

See this.
Every war is different.
The context is different.
Every threat is different and the US will respond to it differently.
Taliban fought as much as they could and had to come to the negotiation table to find a way forward with the US in the end. This is the context and detail that is ignored in propaganda ramblings. The US could smoke Taliban but these people are insignificant to the US in the grand scheme of things. The US was focused on defeating Al-Qaeda Network in the region and it took a while to retrace all Al-Qaeda most wanted. This is done.

The US is very well equipped for high tech and conventional methods of war with a vast surveillance apparatus and Iranian forces present a significant conventional challenge to both Israel and the US with use of ballistic missiles and drones from a distance.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

@Dariush- Bozorg is right.
You missed his point.

 

[F-22Raptor]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Musings]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Here we go again

This kind of bullshit is expected from the White House.
Without American weapons and money -
Israel would be a non entity. Israel is the most successful beggar in the world accumulated billions at the expense of the American tax payer - to be a pawn.
Americans didn’t learn from the Vietnamese experience - then the Afghani trial and soon this experiment too. Still it’s the American tax payer that will suffer long term