Israel’s Genocide in Gaza | 2023- till present

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While there are almost certainly powerful elements of the US security establishment pushing against a wider war, you can't count on them prevailing between now and the next 2-3 weeks.
But it is worth paying attention to the NY Times because that outlet, especially under the Democratic administrations, is privy to the US officials' thinking.


The Israeli government has told the Biden administration that it will avoid striking Iran’s nuclear enrichment and oil production sites when it responds to Tehran’s recent missile attack, two officials said, a move that may reduce the immediate likelihood of an all-out war between the two adversaries.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said that Israel had agreed to focus its next attack on military targets in Iran instead of sites related to Iran’s oil industry or its uranium enrichment efforts. The Biden administration believes that if Israel were to hit such sensitive targets, it could set off a dramatic escalation in the Middle East at a time when Israel is already at war with Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon.

While no final decision is believed to have been made, an Israeli retaliation could still be large in scale, possibly prompting Iran to continue the cycle of attacks. And the officials said the Israeli pledge, first reported by The Washington Post, related only to its next attack against Iran — meaning that it could still pursue more ambitious targets in future rounds of fighting.

Even if it avoids Iranian nuclear enrichment and oil sites, Israel could still hit a wide array of military targets including launchers, storage sites and factories for missiles and drones, as well as military bases and government buildings, according to two Israeli officials briefed on the planning process, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military matters.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with security chiefs at an intelligence base on Sunday to discuss the response and his government has yet to agree on a specific approach, the Israeli officials said.
 
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