I'll clarify the main points I'm making, based on today's situation, although things can change in the future.
- Iran is out of the picture for now. As long as Israel doesn't attack Iran, Iran won't attack Israel.
- Iran has established itself as a serious power, not to be messed with. It can inflict damage on Israel and the world economy that is unbearable for Israel or the West.
- Iran's status is now similar to Russia. The war in Ukraine has been going on for 2.75 years, but they stop short of attacking Russia knowing that Russia can voporize the whole West.
- America will stop Israel from attacking Iran and therefore avoid a regional war.
- In the future, the US/UK/EU will concentrate on overthrowing the govt. in Iran.
- Israel will continue to bomb Hamas and Hezbollah as long as it likes. When it's satisfied that it has achieved its aims it will stop.
- When Israel stops then US, Saudi, Lebanese govt. etc will sign a peace deal. Hesbollah attacks on Israel will stop.
Israel will not achieve all its goals. Its maximum goal was to take out Iran, expel Palestinians from Gaza and turn it into an Israeli settlement and destroy Hezbollah. It won't achieve its maximun goals, but it will get away with genocide of Gazans and the degrading of Hezbollah. Before the war on Hezbollah people were saying that Hezbollah will destroy Israel. Clearly that's not the case. The war in Ukraine has continued for 2.75 years. There's no reason to think that Israel won't be allowed to bomb Lebanon for a few more months.
Just my thought. I'm not claiming to know everything. It is possible that Israel will attack Iran in the next few days and my theory will prove to be wrong.
Very interesting take. Thank you also for the breath of fresh air in this thread. If someone were to get updates on what is happening in the world, through this thread and the one sided commentary, they would think Israel is being decimated and Hamas and Hezbollah are winning the war.
@Oscar ,
@LeGenD would love your thoughts on the following piece as well.
I don't quite understand Iran's motivation for this war, whether ideological or whether they expected a tangible benefit out of it.
I must admit most of these thoughts have been expressed by think tanks so I won't claim all these are my own thoughts. But here I go:
The outcome, has been far from what Iran wanted. Before this started, broadly, the world considered Iran having three major weapons against Israel and the West:
1. Hamas. Irregular warfare that would deplete Israel while Hezbollah attacked head on.
2. IRGC. Iran's own security infrastructure i.e., IRGC and its network.
3. Hezbollah. Considered Iran's loaded gun against Israel. A military force capable of going toe to toe with Israel and actually winning. Nasrallah was projected by Iran everywhere. They spent 20 years building Hezbollah and Nashrallah.
As of this day,
1. Israel has wiped off the leadership of Hamas killing both military and political leaders, has already killed most of their cadres. They are razing Gaza to the ground along with tens of thousands of Palestinians.
2. a. Israel has demonstrated it has deep roots inside IRGC and they have compromised Iran at a very deep level. Killing Haniyeh in Tehran, under IRGC protection was a demonstration to the rest of the world that Iran is not as formidable as they project themselves.
2. b. Despite Israel crossing multiple 'red lines' as declared by Iran, the two attacks of Iran directly on Israel turned out to be nothing more than scratches at best. Not to imply that Iran can't fire more ballistic missiles that will actually damage Israel but more that Iran's 'red lines' are not really red lines and they are unwilling to actually fight the war themselves (and pay a real price in terms of their having massed casualties of own military). They are willing to fight Israel only up till someone else (Hamas, Hez, etc ) is doing the mass dying for them.
3. Israel has wiped off Nasrallah and the large part of their leadership. They are destroying Hezbollah cadres and military equipment. Hezbollah will be left significantly damaged or highly defanged when this is over. Moreover, their credibility in Lebanon as a guarantor of protection for Lebanon against Israel is ruined. There will be pushback in Lebanon as well.
Essentially, Iran's repertoire of weapons that it spend decades building, is collapsing. Now that the ring of fire that Iran had maintained is being taken apart to a large degree, it leaves them open for West's countermoves. We shall see what the West comes up with.
