7 Gains and 4 challenges in the truce between Hamas and Israel!
The texts of the agreement between Hamas and Israel confirm that there are great gains that the Egyptian and Qatari mediators were able to secure for the people of the Gaza Strip, and to extract great gains that seemed beyond the reach of the Palestinian factions after everything that happened in southern Lebanon and Syria. Despite all the Israeli maneuvers and false claims by Netanyahu, the facts announced by Cairo and Doha, and the nature of the political and security interactions in the Gaza Strip after the announcement of the truce, confirm the achievement of 7 gains for the Palestinian people, perhaps the most prominent of which are:
First: Complete withdrawal
The most prominent result achieved is the complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, including the three main axes in Philadelphia, Netzarim, and Kissufim, with the Israeli army beginning to withdraw from populated areas in the first phase, which will last 6 weeks, and moving in this phase towards the east of the Gaza Strip. Away from the central and western areas where the population is concentrated, and the so-called “humanitarian areas.” In the second stage, the Israeli army withdraws to the Israeli border with the Gaza Strip, while in the third stage it is located in The buffer zone, and this constitutes a special negotiating victory in light of the extremist calls in Israel to directly occupy the Gaza Strip, and to return once again to building settlements in the Strip as it was before the crossings agreement that Israel signed with the Palestinian Authority in November 2005. According to During the truce, Israel must “dismantle” all the military infrastructure it established in Gaza, such as water and communications lines, and temporary buildings for soldiers (caravans), and withdraw completely by the end of the phase. Third.
Second: The return of the Rafah crossing to work
Israel categorically rejected any idea of returning work at the Rafah crossing on the Palestinian side, and was demanding that the crossing be moved from its current location to a place near the Kerem Shalom crossing. Indeed, last May, it destroyed the Palestinian side of the crossing, but this agreement guarantees - Clearly - the crossing returned to work at the beginning of the second week of the truce after its rehabilitation, as Israel pledged to redeploy outside the Rafah crossing with the start of receiving the Israeli hostages at two o’clock in the afternoon Jerusalem time on Sunday. Sunday, January 19. This will allow the Rafah crossing to operate again according to the mechanisms it had in place throughout the 19 months that extended from November 2005 until Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, and the European Union mission is preparing to return again. To work as a monitoring team on the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing as it was after the signing of the crossings agreement, which confirms that Israel’s war on the Palestinian people and the occupation of the Rafah crossing in May The past did not bring her any political gains in the Gaza Strip. With the beginning of the second week of the truce, wounded and injured Palestinians will flow out of Gaza through the Rafah crossing, and those stranded outside the Strip can return again to Gaza according to mechanisms that will be agreed upon between the crossings administration, Palestinian customs, Israel, and the European Union mission.
Third: The failure of the generals’ plan
This agreement guarantees the return of the Palestinian population to the northern Gaza Strip in the Gaza and North Gaza governorates, specifically to Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, Jabalia Camp, Jabalia al-Balad, and Nazlet Jabalia. This agreement guarantees complete freedom for the population to return to the various regions of the Gaza Strip, which means in practice The failure of the “generals’ plan” that Israel worked on in the last 140 days of the war, which aimed to expel the entire population north of the Gaza Valley (axis Netzarim), and to transform the entire area into a “buffer zone” to prevent a repeat of what happened on October 7, 2023. This agreement constitutes a “declaration of Israeli failure” in implementing this plan drawn up by the Israeli reserve general Giora Eiland, which was intended to warn the population. Civilians must be evacuated from northern Gaza, and those who remain will be considered combatants, and they must all be killed, and everything in these two governorates (Gaza and North Gaza) destroyed. After more than 4 months of Israel trying to implement this plan, it failed, and the Palestinians pledged to return there and build their tents on the ruins of their homes.
Fourth: Reducing the buffer zone
Before October 7, 2023, Israel maintained a buffer zone of 500 meters inside the Gaza Strip. After the war, Israel said that it wanted to build a 2,000-meter-deep buffer zone so that the October 7 attack would not be repeated, and it was actually demolished - according to many reports. Satellite images - everything on the border is 2000 meters deep, but in the armistice agreement the buffer zone will be only 700 metres, which is a real achievement, clearly says The Israeli army will be on the borders of the Gaza Strip, not inside the Strip, which allows the Palestinians to replant the areas that Israel intended to annex within the “buffer zones.” There was a clear insistence from the Palestinian negotiator - with the full support of the Egyptian and Qatari mediators - on the necessity of reducing buffer zones; Because responding to Israeli and American pressure meant cutting off about 90 km from the total area of the Strip, which does not exceed 360 km. Israel’s borders with the Gaza Strip from the north, east, and south reach about 60 km.
Fifth: Special aid to the northern Gaza Strip
Since last May, Israel has been refusing any kind of additional support for the northern Gaza Strip to save children and women there from starvation. In a systematic and deliberate plan, Israel bombed civilian facilities, such as hospitals, UNRWA buildings, and water and electricity lines, but this agreement guarantees the allocation of 50% of aid to the northern Gaza Strip. That is, allocating 300 trucks per day to the northern Gaza Strip alone, including medical supplies that can save lives.
Sixth: The failure of forced displacement
Everyone knew that the goal of Israel's plan of destruction was to turn the Gaza Strip into an unlivable place. And then the forced displacement of the population; That is, the displacement of about 1.2 million people out of a total of two million Palestinians outside the Gaza Strip. After 15 months of destroying everything, from buildings to hospitals and schools, the Israeli plan failed completely. Those who left Gaza do not exceed 100,000, the majority of whom are wounded, sick, and their companions, and they are already preparing to return again to the Gaza Strip. Thus, Israel has failed to achieve the most important... One of the goals of the war is to expel the Palestinian population from Gaza to Sinai, and from the West Bank to the Jordan River, which practically means Israel’s failure to “liquidate the Palestinian issue.” It is a goal that Israeli leaders have worked on, starting from David Ben-Gurion to Netanyahu, who brags that he was the one who thwarted for nearly three decades all plans for a two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state on the borders of June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Seventh: The geopolitical unity between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank
For 15 months, Israel bet on the emergence of someone who would agree to cooperate with it to separate the Gaza Strip from the West Bank and Jerusalem. Israel spoke a lot about local leaders and clans inside the Gaza Strip that would cooperate with them so that the National Authority or Hamas would not return to running the Gaza Strip. However, with the signing of this agreement, Israel’s failure to Finding a foothold among any Gazan citizen; Therefore, the details of the next day will return to the Palestinians themselves, and the geopolitical interconnection between the Gaza Strip and the rest of the occupied Palestinian territories will remain, and Israel’s complete failure to separate the Gaza Strip on the one hand, and the West Bank and East Jerusalem on the other side, which indicates that the Palestinian people have remained united despite all the tragedies. And the massacres committed by the Israeli occupation against everyone in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.
Four Challenges:
Despite the presence of the three guarantors of the agreement, namely Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, there is agreement among everyone, even within the United States itself, that “Israel’s behavior is not guaranteed,” and it can change at any time according to its own calculations, or according to the calculations of the government formation in Tel Aviv. . Despite the success of the Egyptian and Qatari mediators in including in the agreement “tools and mechanisms” for implementation, there are three main challenges facing this agreement, which are:
1- Overthrow the Israeli government
This is an obsession that has been following Netanyahu throughout the period of negotiations that began from December 1, 2023 until today, as he fears that extremists will overthrow his government. At present, Netanyahu’s calculations are that the ruling coalition, which includes 68 members, could lose only 7 supporters if The supporters of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir will not support the government in the coming period, as Netanyahu will have 61 members remaining who will guarantee him a majority in the Knesset, which consists of 120. One seat, but the option of the government’s fall is not far-fetched in light of opinion polls that said that only 20% of supporters of National Security Minister Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich support the agreement, which may prompt Smotrich and members of his party to withdraw from supporting the current government. Then the government will fall; Ben Gvir and Smotrich have 14 seats in the Knesset.
2- Israeli breach and bombing
There is a fear that Israel will bomb the Palestinian crews who were holding hostages in the first phase, which may lead to the collapse of the truce. There is an indication of this danger, which is Israel’s killing of more than 100 Palestinian martyrs since the announcement of the truce, which indicates that Israel is still thirsty for blood. .
3- The first stage is enough
This is a belief held by 45% of Israelis who said that Israel must return to fighting after the end of the first phase, and the Hamas movement expressed in many stages of the negotiations its fears that Israel would not enter the second phase after obtaining the largest number of living hostages, especially in light of Calculations that say that by the end of the first phase, the Israeli army will still be in the Gaza Strip, and a return to war after the first phase guarantees the survival of extremists in Netanyahu’s government, in addition to the fact that the administration of President-elect Donald Trump will not mind Israel’s return to war if a hill is presented. Aviv has no justifications for returning to fighting, which is a major challenge that Egypt and Qatar are working to overcome by quickly negotiating the second phase and passing the first phase smoothly and easily.
4- Lack of clarity regarding the day after the war
So far, there are 3 projects for the day after the war stops; The project presented by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the Center for Atlantic Studies, in which it calls for sending foreign forces to manage the Strip temporarily, and the second project presented by the Palestinian Authority in 4 pages, and the third project which says that the day after the war must be Palestinian, and rejects any presence of forces. Foreign or Arab inside the Gaza Strip. Israel may take advantage of this lack of clarity regarding the next day to resume fighting in Gaza.
It is clear that the armistice agreement has great gains for the Palestinian people. Because it is enough for him that the war will stop for 126 days, or 18 weeks, but the challenges remain before everyone, which requires Palestinian unity, Arab support, and international support to end this tragedy.
https://eurasiaar.org/7-مكاسب-و4-تحديات-في-الهدنة-بين-حماس-وإسر/
