Japan Defence and General News Discussions

MH.Yang said:
I suggest not immigrating to Japan. China has issued the strictest regulatory ban on Japan in history, involving thousands of goods. And yesterday, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs made it clear that Japan must completely disarm. This means that unless Japan disbands all military forces, including the Self Defense Forces, China's control ban will undoubtedly be prolonged. Regardless of whether the Japanese government is at fault or not, Japan's economy must confront China head-on. Immigrating to Japan at this time is a foolish choice.
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Demanding Japan to disarm? Are you serious? That will never happen.
Ccp should be a bit more relax. Japan military budget is $56 billion for 2026 compared to China or the US military spending projected to reach $1.5 trillion is water drop in ocean. Overall Japan economy is shrinking its army is weak, they don’t have 50 army brigades, they can’t wage war.
 
Viet said:
Demanding Japan to disarm? Are you serious? That will never happen.
Ccp should be a bit more relax. Japan military budget is $56 billion for 2026 compared to China or the US military spending projected to reach $1.5 trillion is water drop in ocean. Overall Japan economy is shrinking its army is weak, they don’t have 50 army brigades, they can’t wage war.
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The demand announced by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning yesterday was not disarmament, but the immediate dissolution of Japanese armed forces in accordance with <Potsdam Proclamation> and <Cairo Declaration>. That is to say, disband all military organizations, including the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. Of course Japan will not agree, so this time the sanctions will last for a long, long time.
 
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Viet said:
Demanding Japan to disarm? Are you serious? That will never happen.
Ccp should be a bit more relax. Japan military budget is $56 billion for 2026 compared to China or the US military spending projected to reach $1.5 trillion is water drop in ocean. Overall Japan economy is shrinking its army is weak, they don’t have 50 army brigades, they can’t wage war.
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China not only wants to disarm Japan, China also wants to deindustrialized Japan. If you look at the just announced sweeping ban of exporting directly or through third parties any Chinese materials, products and tech that can be used for dual uses and purposes in Japan that certainly includes rare earth minerals and others, and if you look at China's scheduled ban of importing critical Japanese materials used to make chips, you know what I mean. It's going to heavily damage if not destroy Japanese industries because they heavily depend on Chinese materials, parts and markets. They get what they ask for when they try to poke in the eyes of the dragon.
 
ety said:
China not only wants to disarm Japan, China also wants to deindustrialized Japan. If you look at the just announced sweeping ban of exporting directly or through third parties any Chinese materials, products and tech that can be used for dual uses and purposes in Japan that certainly includes rare earth minerals and others, and if you look at China's scheduled ban of importing critical Japanese materials used to make chips, you know what I mean. It's going to heavily damage if not destroy Japanese industries because they heavily depend on Chinese materials, parts and markets. They get what they ask for when they try to poke in the eyes of the dragon.
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Japan only really trails Korea and Taiwan in leading-edge fab capacity and the biggest consumer chip brands. But in the supply chain around fabs, especially process materials and chemicals (photoresists, high-purity gases, silicon wafers, CMP consumables), along with a major share of fab equipment and test, Japan has a huge amount of influence.

Yield and reliability don't come from fabs alone. They depend heavily on upstream tools, materials, and process control, and Japan has real leverage there. In semiconductor B2B, Japan is a critical supplier, and more influential than most people realize.
 
ety said:
China not only wants to disarm Japan, China also wants to deindustrialized Japan. If you look at the just announced sweeping ban of exporting directly or through third parties any Chinese materials, products and tech that can be used for dual uses and purposes in Japan that certainly includes rare earth minerals and others, and if you look at China's scheduled ban of importing critical Japanese materials used to make chips, you know what I mean. It's going to heavily damage if not destroy Japanese industries because they heavily depend on Chinese materials, parts and markets. They get what they ask for when they try to poke in the eyes of the dragon.
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Should not impose maximum demands on Japan, it will end very ugly otherwise. and China will not go unscathed. I read the dual use restrictions. From what I understand Ccp only imposes on rare earth and associated technology. The Japanese will find a way out.
 
MH.Yang said:
The warships of China's North Sea Fleet are located in Qingdao Port, not far from the mainland of Japan. This is a good opportunity for Japan to launch another attack similar to the Pearl Harbor attack, and they can try to gamble on their national fortune again.
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All the wars Japan waged on whether against China, Russia or US had been Pear Harbor style surprise attacks. These sneaky Japanese can't be trusted.
 
Viet said:
Should not impose maximum demands on Japan, it will end very ugly otherwise. and China will not go unscathed. I read the dual use restrictions. From what I understand Ccp only imposes on rare earth and associated technology. The Japanese will find a way out.
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No, not just rare earth and related tech, all dual uses material, products and tech.


1767946213993.png

Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 1 of 2026: Announcement on Strengthening Export Controls on Dual-Use Items to Japan
[Issuing Authority] Bureau of Safety and Control
[Document Number] Announcement No. 1 of 2026 issued by the Ministry of Commerce
[Date of Issuance] January 6, 2026

In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and other laws and regulations, and in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has been decided to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan. The relevant matters are hereby announced as follows:

Export of all dual-use items to Japanese military users, for military purposes, and for any other end-user purposes that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities is prohibited.

Any organization or individual from any country or region that violates the above provisions by transferring or providing relevant dual-use items originating from the People's Republic of China to organizations or individuals in Japan will be held legally liable.

This announcement shall take effect from the date of its publication.

Ministry of Commerce

January 6, 2026





For a complete list:


 
Yellow is Okay said:
Japan only really trails Korea and Taiwan in leading-edge fab capacity and the biggest consumer chip brands. But in the supply chain around fabs, especially process materials and chemicals (photoresists, high-purity gases, silicon wafers, CMP consumables), along with a major share of fab equipment and test, Japan has a huge amount of influence.

Yield and reliability don't come from fabs alone. They depend heavily on upstream tools, materials, and process control, and Japan has real leverage there. In semiconductor B2B, Japan is a critical supplier, and more influential than most people realize.
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Yes. But do you know which country monopolizes the raw materials used to manufacture the goods exported by Japan, such as photoresist?

As for high-precision instruments and so on, it happens to be China's willingness to implement trade controls. Chinese companies are already able to provide these products, but the companies that use these products still have old supply chain dependencies. So we need the Japanese government to proactively ban the sale of these goods to China and give the market to Chinese companies.
 
ety said:
No, not just rare earth and related tech, all dual uses material, products and tech.


View attachment 171033

Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 1 of 2026: Announcement on Strengthening Export Controls on Dual-Use Items to Japan
[Issuing Authority] Bureau of Safety and Control
[Document Number] Announcement No. 1 of 2026 issued by the Ministry of Commerce
[Date of Issuance] January 6, 2026

In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and other laws and regulations, and in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it has been decided to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan. The relevant matters are hereby announced as follows:

Export of all dual-use items to Japanese military users, for military purposes, and for any other end-user purposes that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities is prohibited.

Any organization or individual from any country or region that violates the above provisions by transferring or providing relevant dual-use items originating from the People's Republic of China to organizations or individuals in Japan will be held legally liable.

This announcement shall take effect from the date of its publication.

Ministry of Commerce

January 6, 2026





For a complete list:


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That’s madness if fully implemented. a total trade blockade. Every product, every good can be used for military. Where do you draw the line? $300 billion that’s a big chunk of money in China-Japan trade volumes.
Vietnam recently largely replaced trades Thailand fallout with Cambodia. But no way we can compensate Japan.
 
Viet said:
Should not impose maximum demands on Japan, it will end very ugly otherwise. and China will not go unscathed. I read the dual use restrictions. From what I understand Ccp only imposes on rare earth and associated technology. The Japanese will find a way out.
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If we want negotiations, then it will only increase the number of goods that are controlled step by step. To ban thousands of goods at a time is to tell Japanese government that we will not negotiate with it and only accept its surrender.
 
MH.Yang said:
If we want negotiations, then it will only increase the number of goods that are controlled step by step. To ban thousands of goods at a time is to tell Japanese government that we will not negotiate with it and only accept its surrender.
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The maximum demand you can expect is Sanae Takaichi withdraws her statement about Taiwan. you can’t expect her to surrender.
China exports machine is running well but not property market, domestic economy, employment market. Why pushing the limit? You will feel the pain from the fallout, too.
But anyway like Thailand and Cambodia, it’s not our business.
 
Viet said:
The maximum demand you can expect is Sanae Takaichi withdraws her statement about Taiwan. you can’t expect her to surrender.
China exports machine is running well but not property market, domestic economy, employment market. Why pushing the limit? You will feel the pain from the fallout, too.
But anyway like Thailand and Cambodia, it’s not our business.
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Even if Hayao Takashi resigns, this Sino Japanese diplomatic crisis is unlikely to end. Either Japan will demilitarize, or Japan will deindustrialize. Or Japan could sneak attack China's Beihai Fleet and declare war on China. As long as Japan could beat China in war, it could also the treaty it wanted.

btw: There are reports that China and Russia are about to jointly ban Japanese aircraft from using the airspace of the two countries.
 
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Viet said:
Demanding Japan to disarm? Are you serious? That will never happen.
Ccp should be a bit more relax. Japan military budget is $56 billion for 2026 compared to China or the US military spending projected to reach $1.5 trillion is water drop in ocean. Overall Japan economy is shrinking its army is weak, they don’t have 50 army brigades, they can’t wage war.
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Japan will be disarmed or de-industrialized, and the resistance is futile.

And China is also using Japan as an experiment, since these measures will later apply to the US.
 
Viet said:
Should not impose maximum demands on Japan, it will end very ugly otherwise. and China will not go unscathed. I read the dual use restrictions. From what I understand Ccp only imposes on rare earth and associated technology. The Japanese will find a way out.
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Also, Japan is an indispensable part of the western semiconductor supply chain.

Japan's entire semiconductor industry is way more important than the TSMC.

Japan's photoresist is one of the most crucial components for ASML's DUV/EUV lithography machines.

China has developed its own photoresist, and Japan has put this sanction on China years ago, so China will now destroy Japan's photoresist industry by banning all raw materials.

It is one stone two birds for China, and Trump's amateur admin is simply too dumb to figure out.
 
This is basically denying Japan's access to the China led supply chain, not much less than a war time total embargo actually. Thousands of Japanese companies in the manufacturing sector will go bankrupt in less than a year and people will starve.

Trump goes after Chinas business interests in the Americas then China goes after US treaty ally in Asia, this will be the new norm I guess
 
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