JF-17 PFX program

[FuturePAF]

Thing is, if we want to 'move up the value added chain' then we'd need to think outside of the final product, and more about the inputs that feed into it. For example, Canada will always be at the cusp of manufacturing a fighter indigenously (to around 75%+) because it wields most of the key industries, e.g., composites, aluminum, gas turbines, etc., and can tap into its industry to source the inputs. What it does not have is a design and development front for the aircraft itself as a lot of that expertise went to the US since sinking (literally) the Avro Arrow. But if you gave the Canadian industry the mandate to indigenize the Gripen, they can do it because the means to do it is all there. They just need the OEM (Saab) to take the lead in design.

The problem with the PAF approach is that it has always been design-focused, but literally zero was given to the industrial back-end. Moreover, most of our leaders have a poor understanding of what the industrial back-end really means, they mostly just think it's the assembly plant, but don't pay much attention to the supply chain feeding into it.

It's going to sound brutal, but even with all that we have put into the JF-17, we didn't move one inch past where we were with the Mirage III/5. In fact, we may be behind in some respects because, with the Mirage III/5 at least, we did have cadres at many, many points who knew the plane inside and out and could re-manufacture parts from scratch at home (which we did/do for the ATAR D-MRO and MRF). In fact, I'd argue that we were maybe just a step behind where the South Africans were who could manufacture new wings, tails, and front-fuselages for the M3/5 (to turn it into the Cheetah), and two steps behind the Israelis who could build an entirely new fighter from it.

The AHQ that conceived of the M3/M5 MRF and ATAR MRO facility had actually built a decent and workable groundwork to evolve from. I can argue that, perhaps, we actually moved backwards with the JF-17 because we didn't apply the lessons that we knew already from the Mirage to the Thunder.

I'll put it this way: We can keep the Mirage 3/5 going without the French, but we can't do the same for the JF-17 without the Chinese. That should really speak volumes of how far we've fallen.

Now, if the goal is to move up the value chain, then we need to focus less on the end product and more on the industries that feed into it.

Whether it's JF-17 or J-35, it's irrelevant; what now matters is, what % of Pakistani-sourced content can we feed into it, and can we increase it? To its credit, HIT actually understands this pretty well. I suspect someone there learned the lessons from the al-Khalid and ensured that Haider would run along more feasible lines. So, for example, instead of focusing on an original 'joint' design at the end of the chain, HIT picked up the VT4 as-is, and worked on local-sourcing where it could (e.g., gun barrel, electronics, and gradually other inputs). In a way, it's good news in that while PAC is faltering, we're seeing best practices emerge out of places we'd least expect, like HIT.

Unfortunately, we're lacking in so many critical and advanced industries, our ability to contribute to the J-35 is extremely limited. The JF-17 we can fare a bit better, I'm sure, but serious investment in those critical industries (aluminum, composites, and so on) is necessary first. This is why thinking at an even simpler level -- e.g., drones, cruise missiles, loitering munitions, etc -- is smarter because we can scale these out by the tens of thousands over the long-term and drive lots of private interest in supporting these outputs. Eventually, the private sector will grow large enough to start taking on more complex programs.

Valid points. What does this indicate the PAF’s vision is for the PFX-Alpha and PFX though? Should we assume the plane will remain basically the same size and power-plant as the JF-17, but continue as an evolutionary design; perhaps a change in the wing and tail designs as shown in the public imagery, but by and large the same platform?

I agree that PAC should not get ahead of its skis, and assure it can build the JF-17 as much locally as possible.

If this is the vision, and cost is still a major limiting factor, then the use of UCAVs/CCAs and the networks to control them will definitely be a pivotal feature of the PAF to come.

 

[puttputt]

Valid points. What does this indicate the PAF’s vision is for the PFX-Alpha and PFX though? Should we assume the plane will remain basically the same size and power-plant as the JF-17, but continue as an evolutionary design; perhaps a change in the wing and tail designs as shown in the public imagery, but by and large the same platform?

I agree that PAC should not get ahead of its skis, and assure it can build the JF-17 as much locally as possible.

If this is the vision, and cost is still a major limiting factor, then the use of UCAVs/CCAs and the networks to control them will definitely be a pivotal feature of the PAF to come.

Yep, I think PFX Alpha will be an upgraded JF-17 of some sort, not too different than what we have with the Block-3. Any additional work on this fighter will require AVIC's input and, knowing the history of the PAF in managing development projects, likely won't move the needle far in building our indigenous capacity.

The more optimal strategy is to pivot to UCAVs, but have NESCOM's AWC take the lead because it has all of the valuable expertise that could relate to this (MALE UAVs, ALCMs, target drones, etc). Even better, partner AWC with Baykar to design, develop, and (with maximum local sourcing possible) produce a Made in Pakistan jet UCAV in large numbers. Defer the bulk of the subassembly and input supply to the Pakistani private sector, create pathways for Turkish companies to invest and grow said Pakistani ventures, and we're cooking.

In about 10-15 years, those same private Pakistani companies could grow large enough to support the KAAN and Hurjet's supply chain. As they build expertise across those platforms, they will reach a point where they can be given an original fighter design and be well provisioned to support said program.

It's all doable, but it'll take about 5-7 years of good all-around policymaking to set the foundations, plus another 10-15 years to reach maturation (i.e, the point where we can pursue an indigenous fighter program in earnest).

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

What will the PFX program replace?

Pakistan's current inventory.

Aircraft​	In Service​
Mirage 3/5	179​
JF-17 Thunder	153​
F-7 P/PG	85​
F-16 Fighting Falcon	75​
J-10C Indus Dragon	20​
Total​	512​

Some of the inventory numbers acquired from this book.

PAF Vision 2030: Inside Pakistan’s Secret Plan to Dominate the Skies - By Zohaib Ahmed

 

[Tariq Habib Afridi]

What will the PFX program replace?

Pakistan's current inventory.

Aircraft​	In Service​
Mirage 3/5	179​
JF-17 Thunder	153​
F-7 P/PG	85​
F-16 Fighting Falcon	75​
J-10C Indus Dragon	20​
Total​	512​

Some of the inventory numbers acquired from this book.

PAF Vision 2030: Inside Pakistan’s Secret Plan to Dominate the Skies - By Zohaib Ahmed

I think we have far lower numbers of Mirage 3/5 and F-7 P/PG? most of them are retired and we may have less than 80 of these jets now in our inventory.
we will also need to retired our 50 block 1 JF-17 and then older F-16 ADF and MLU. All these in my opinion will be replaced by PFX

 

[hasssanali8998]

PFX

or most probably j35

 

[hasssanali8998]

PAF Vision 2030: Inside Pakistan’s Secret Plan to Dominate the Skies - By Zohaib Ahmed

so many mistakes or wrong prediction in this man , like 60 j10ce by 2025 ??

 

[That_Guy]

I think we have far lower numbers of Mirage 3/5 and F-7 P/PG? most of them are retired and we may have less than 80 of these jets now in our inventory.
we will also need to retired our 50 block 1 JF-17 and then older F-16 ADF and MLU. All these in my opinion will be replaced by PFX

Less than 50 F-7s and are on the verge of complete retirement.

Mirage numbers are less than 100 o believe, and slowly coming down, as PAF is trying to keep them running until more modern fighters can be inducted.

Older Thunders that they can still salvage will likely be upgraded to maintain numbers, without outright retiring them.

PAF is unlikely to retire its fleet of F-16s any time soon. They're still a massive backbone for Pakistan, and PAF may look towards turkiye to upgrade them via the ozgur program. There's also rumors that PAF may be looking to buy more second hand Jordanian air force F-16s.

PFX is increasingly looking like a project that's trying make as much of the thunder as indigenous as possible. I don't think it's this secret 4.9 or 5th gen fighter everyone keeps claiming it is. Its just a way for PAF to build a local aerospace industry by essentially learning how the thunder's major foreign components are made, and to see if they can be made locally.

 

[Corax]

What will the PFX program replace?

Pakistan's current inventory.

Aircraft​	In Service​
Mirage 3/5	179​
JF-17 Thunder	153​
F-7 P/PG	85​
F-16 Fighting Falcon	75​
J-10C Indus Dragon	20​
Total​	512​

Some of the inventory numbers acquired from this book.

PAF Vision 2030: Inside Pakistan’s Secret Plan to Dominate the Skies - By Zohaib Ahmed

Extremely unlikely that the PAF will have over 500 PFX. It's not going to be a one for one replacement. PFX will most likely be the "low end", with J35 the "high end", and potentially TFX, albeit a string caveat with that one. You also have to consider UCAS having some limited role. In addition, J10CE, Block 3/4 JF17 and possibly upgraded Vipers will be around for a while still.

 

[hasssanali8998]

PAF may look towards turkiye to upgrade them via the ozgur program

suppose we have money for it , can we do it without us approval

 

[hasssanali8998]

Less than 50 F-7s and are on the verge of complete retirement.

 

[Tariq Habib Afridi]

View attachment 164397

Also i guess he said mirages are also mostly retired only about 40-50 are in service now if i am not mistaken..

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Extremely unlikely that the PAF will have over 500 PFX. It's not going to be a one for one replacement. PFX will most likely be the "low end", with J35 the "high end", and potentially TFX, albeit a string caveat with that one. You also have to consider UCAS having some limited role. In addition, J10CE, Block 3/4 JF17 and possibly upgraded Vipers will be around for a while still.

Yes, I think the previous Air Chief said something like that PAF is looking maintain a fleet of around 350 (or was it 370?) fighter aircraft for the foreseeable future.

153 JF-17 Thunder
75 F-16 Fighting Falcon
20 J-10C Indus Dragon

The above totals to 248.

To reach 350, there's room for another 102 modern fighter aircraft to be inducted by 2035.

 

[hasssanali8998]

Also i guess he said mirages are also mostly retired only about 40-50 are in service now if i am not mistaken..

yeah and we are aiming for 2030 to 2035 timeline

 

[Tariq Habib Afridi]

Less than 50 F-7s and are on the verge of complete retirement.

Mirage numbers are less than 100 o believe, and slowly coming down, as PAF is trying to keep them running until more modern fighters can be inducted.

Older Thunders that they can still salvage will likely be upgraded to maintain numbers, without outright retiring them.

PAF is unlikely to retire its fleet of F-16s any time soon. They're still a massive backbone for Pakistan, and PAF may look towards turkiye to upgrade them via the ozgur program. There's also rumors that PAF may be looking to buy more second hand Jordanian air force F-16s.

PFX is increasingly looking like a project that's trying make as much of the thunder as indigenous as possible. I don't think it's this secret 4.9 or 5th gen fighter everyone keeps claiming it is. Its just a way for PAF to build a local aerospace industry by essentially learning how the thunder's major foreign components are made, and to see if they can be made locally.

I guess the numbers are far less than you speculate.. we have retired most mirages already i guess. Also we only have now the F-7PG and all F-7P are retired.
The last paragraph i totally agree with you on this. still a better approach in my opinion if we could make it 100% indegenious

 

[Ak01]

If we go back to the original ASR's and the indications of what the PAF wanted, the J-35 was not it.

We also have seen no signs of any firm commitment towards the J-35 yet, no matter how much the press releases show J35's, i am yet to spot any indication that an induction is in the works. We would certainly see some things being done, like new constructions at airbases.



for reference, j35 has like a 50+ foot wingspan.

So new HAS are a given at the very least.

Also, we dont see any trainer procurement, this i think is the KEY sign that a NGFA is in the works, the PAF's current training setup, F-7s etc arent going to support pilots very well, yeah basic flying is basic flying, but as we move forward in tech, giving crews exposure from day one to the fundamental technologies they'll employ when flying their eventual type is handy.

Its effectively like training in a cessna, but being thrown in a 737. Yeah, planes fly, itll go up, itll go down, but other than some basic flying, is there anything he can take with him to his 737 job... probably not much.

I do think the TFX aligns far better with what the PAF wants/needs. It also is an opportunity at the moment still, where if we buy in early, we can get some concessions, integration of our payloads more freely etc. I will be very surprised for example if China allows Ra'ad integration on the J-35. They dont need their name on Pakistani nuclear assets, its a bad look for them. The Turks OTOH could give us free reign on what we do in exchange for buying in early for example, i.e PAC could be allowed to freely integrate weapons of its choice, or we could be setup as some sort of industrial partner, even if it is just producing bulkheads like.

Eventually something needs to happen with PAC, Pak knows this. It cant carry on producing jf17s forever. As mirages die, factories become idle, and for PAC to die, even though its a mess, would be a strategic blunder. So, something needs to be built there, will China let us support the J35 supply chain? Probably not. Will the Turks rope us into their ecosystem, VERY Likely. PAC unless you put some serious investment in, wont be producing jets forever, which is fine, who cares, but PAC could transition from a final production facility, into an industrial partner, producing vast swathes of other parts for industry. Imagine if TAI brought manufacturing into Pakistan for the variety of their platforms. PAC would have a factory producing Hurjet bits, one producing TFX bits, the other for Hurkus, etc etc. Its not what people envision for PAC, but i think it might actually be a reasonable way forward. Now if only the PAF sold a stake in PAC to another entity, like TAI for example.

IF, and its a big IF the J-35 makes its way into the PAF, i dont think it would be on its merit or capabilities, but because of Dictator Sidhu Sahib's desire to cement a legacy, so he can retire and tell people he was the one who turned the PAF into a Next Jeneration Air Phorce, as he loves to show off in the press releases. Its all contracts being handed willy nilly to a select few Chinese vendors, but the question is, are they being offered on merit of the product, or again, so small man sidhu can get a kick out of it and make himself feel like hes done something.