We will have a long term low level insurgency in both KP tribal areas and Balochistan
That's just because of the people there,
If the people were different it would be resolved decades ago, because it's fundamentally a ethnocentric issue
Not religion, not money, not resources, it's all ethnicity and everything else is a excuse
But we can deal low level localized problems with police and FC and even take steps to give a level of local autonomy
But what we can't accept is the local and the Afghan whether in KP or Balochistan join up to commit major attacks against our country
Because that can't be ignored, it can't be tolerated
It has already resulted in millions of Afghans being thrown out and if it continues, Pakistan will be forced to use its military like a actual HAMMER
, where both Afghan and Baloch areas in Afghanistan will take heavy heavy punishment
With major operations in KP and Balochistan and a cleansing across Pakistan
We are being forced into this situation and these enemies will regret pushing us so far
I mean there is a bad side to it, even with a low intensity insurgency that will scare of any chance of local and foreign investments, aim is to change the lives of locals which is hard because you can't change them unless they want to be changed in the first place, and open to it.
Remember Rasool Allah asked Meccan's that their ransom will be paid if they educate 10 Muslim kids, education is a big weapon against the idiots but problem is that you build schools and they will blow it up, and TTP see this that there is no outrage among the locals so they feel emboldened to do it again, highly educated people who join military, cadets, Air force or FC to raise in rank are killed, lots of young able bodies are dying even from the side of Security forces, with no local outrage so where does it ends?
Best Pakistan can do is that clear the Baluchistan by FORCE, and leave KPK into a low intensity insurgency, let that whole Affair be a local issue... let FC/Tribal fight the TTP/Afghanistan, increase screening of anyone leaving KPK to rest of the Pakistan, seal of Afghan border and you may have a chance, because we can't do everything right because of course its Pakistan, we will at best get 2 out of 10 things right.
And now as Afghans show their true colors, they will keep bugging KPK/FATA with insurgency because they know that if they fighting then eventually they will get something out of it, just like America after Fuqqing them for 2 decades left at their own accord, sooner or later some other power will eventually find its way into Afghanistan. Because its useless piece of land with drugs, bacha bazi and thousands of unpardh jahil fighting age men who have no prospect of future, so most of them will join groups like TTP/AQ/ISIS/BLA just so they can feed their family of 3 wives and 100 kids 2 waqt ki roti, as depressing as it sounds they are themselves to be blamed no one else.
I mean i still believe a large scale operation at the similar level of how Saddam dealt with Kurds or how Jordan dealt with Palestinian insurgency via Zia will do the job, Baluchistan doesn't have a large population, once you start clearing it off you will see massive decline in attacks, I'd say divide the Baluchistan into 3-4 districts, they should have their own Levies or FC, transfer the power to local govt, kick out the Sardar's (which will be harderst thing to do) these people practically worship their Tribal sardar's who Fuq them royally while they enjoy lives in their mansions and EU.
I don't see any major hope for Kpk because the lack of self awareness among the people, to solve a problem you have to first acknowledge that there is a problem in the first place, the locals will keep blaming 1980's, America, Soveits, British, Mughals, heck I was once told that Islam was imposed on the KPKians, they didn't asked for it... that's the level of ethno-nationalism is embeded into that society and its not going anywhere no matter how many Army or FC kill the Terrorists, If Islam couldn't help them or Pakistani nationalism can't then nothing will, we will be seeing that same in 2070 that a suicide bomber will blast a school and people on PDF will be saying its because Pakistan's 1980's policies.