Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

[Persian Gulf]

Hezbollah didn't need to help in that case, Iran wasn't going to fall after the first few days when things stabalized, and it wasn't isolated. Hezbollah is isolated, its a very different scenario.

It would be a mistake for the IRGC to not help, this is same foolish "strategic patience" that cost them these couple of years. They are picking off the fronts, one at a time, b/c the cowardice is preventing them from fighting back as a collective. After they wipe out Hezbollah, they will come for Iran eventually.

when Nasrallah was killed, an IRGC general was killed with him in the same bunker. reports now say Hezbollah is continuing to arm itself through some supply routes in Syria and sea routes. who do you think is doing the supplying? and credible reports emerged that after Nasrallah and senior leadership were killed, Iran dispatched senior IRGC officers to help organise and rebuild the C&C structure of Hezbollah. so Iran is already heavily involved in many ways.

in any case, it's not clear that Iran's mostly inaccurate MRBMs could have much impact on an Israeli invasion of south Lebanon, unless we aim for large 'soft' targets and their cities again. nor would Iranians support going to war and getting Tehran flattened to save Hezbollah. There's no logic in bringing a war to your doorstep to save Hezbollah if your objective is to avoid bringing war to your doorstep.

finally, a combined Iran-Hezbollah war on Israel would really get the US and Europe (and most of the Middle East) angry enough to work together to help Israel to crush both for good.

 

[Shags101]

While its true that the mullah regime -not Iran itself- plays a negative role in neighboring states you cant pin everything on them. The reality isnt so black and white; there are countless internal factors at play in each of these situations.

Take Iraqs Hashd Shaabi for example, its an Iraqi organization born from Iraqi society. The blame falls on them and their political leaders who willingly act as puppets for a bunch of illiterate mullahs.


The same applies to Yemen, Syria, Hezbollah, and the rest, they are all native to their own countries. If you want to reduce the influence of the IR regime the only real solution is to strengthen the state. Look at Lebanon: the country is paralyzed and unsure what to do with an armed militia operating freely inside its borders. How can any state function like that?


My point is this: Arab countries and societies must rise up and free themselves from the grip of the IR regime. While the Iranian people are fighting the regimes head you are facing its weakened tentacles and the last few years have already shown that those tentacles can be cut.

About Israels support for the IR, yes, it did happen, but it was very limited and only took place in the early 1980s.

Arabs and Muslim in general need to rise up from their own leaders.Iran isn’t the big bad in every country in the middle east Israel plays a far more destabilizing actor in many of these countries it’s making it look like Iran was playing children’s games.

Yemen has been at war for many years sad to say yeah Iran backed the winning group instead of telling the Houthis to sit down and reconcile for the best of Yemen we have this current state but honestly you have GCC playing games on the other side so honestly not like you can call out Iran without calling out a few gcc nations who were complicit in this idiot war.

Iraq is now basically Shias with Iran Sunnis keeping their heads down avoiding conflict and let’s be honest Kurds who are being covertly aided by Israel.

Syria can’t really argue that one Iran should have made Bashar step down after they saved his behind they messed up Bashar wasn’t a friend to anyone.

Iran he

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Zios seem to be plotting, alleging Hezbollah is receiving weapons shipments via Syria.

If they do attack Lebanon with a ground invasion, would Iran and Iraq help?

Iraqi resistance is limited it more or less comparable to Houthi they may even have some kind of mrbm that we haven’t seen but not much else other than drones and cruise missiles of inferior quality compared to Iran I don’t see them marching through Syria to Israel or Jordan to Israel.
Iran I feel like they are definitely up to something definitely maybe not a true promise type event but definitely something to stun the Israelis we all know Hezbollah and Iran have long memories and definitely Iran is an eye or eye country.
We have seen the strikes on Hezbollah but weird mostly low level or mid level people if you believe the Israelis we know they have quietly sent thousands of people in civilian attire to south Lebanon because these people live there I think Hezbollah is preparing for the upcoming Israeli invasion it’s going to happen very soon.

 

[Shags101]

when Nasrallah was killed, an IRGC general was killed with him in the same bunker. reports now say Hezbollah is continuing to arm itself through some supply routes in Syria and sea routes. who do you think is doing the supplying? and credible reports emerged that after Nasrallah and senior leadership were killed, Iran dispatched senior IRGC officers to help organise and rebuild the C&C structure of Hezbollah. so Iran is already heavily involved in many ways.

in any case, it's not clear that Iran's mostly inaccurate MRBMs could have much impact on an Israeli invasion of south Lebanon, unless we aim for large 'soft' targets and their cities again. nor would Iranians support going to war and getting Tehran flattened to save Hezbollah. There's no logic in bringing a war to your doorstep to save Hezbollah if your objective is to avoid bringing war to your doorstep.

finally, a combined Iran-Hezbollah war on Israel would really get the US and Europe (and most of the Middle East) angry enough to work together to help Israel to crush both for good.

With every true promise event Iran has shown a better ability to target Israeli targets if there is ever a new Iranian attack on Israel caused either from a preemptive or retaliatory attack I think the next round you will see far more direct hits

 

[Jalz]

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Zios seem to be plotting, alleging Hezbollah is receiving weapons shipments via Syria.

If they do attack Lebanon with a ground invasion, would Iran and Iraq help?

They will help by sending advisors and weapons. Iranian air defense force performed horribly during the 12 day war. In a new Israel Iran war Israel could deal more damage to Iran than Iran can to Israel. For that reason alone I doubt the IRGC would help.


"Cease-fire at risk"

 

[Persian Gulf]

With every true promise event Iran has shown a better ability to target Israeli targets if there is ever a new Iranian attack on Israel caused either from a preemptive or retaliatory attack I think the next round you will see far more direct hits

I am not sure about that

to me it seems TP2 had the best success rate, with 4-5 direct hits from 180 missiles

TP3 had more hits but they were mostly against city targets rather than large air bases. they changed the targets because of the failures of TP1 and TP2

 

[Shags101]

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Zios seem to be plotting, alleging Hezbollah is receiving weapons shipments via Syria.

If they do attack Lebanon with a ground invasion, would Iran and Iraq help?

Israel prepares for growing threat from Iraq | The Jerusalem Post

The main method of attack would likely involve launching missiles and drones from Iraqi territory, following a pattern similar to the one used during the first days of the Israel-Hamas War.

www.jpost.com

I was reading this article they brought up my joking land invasion through Syria or Jordan(which I was just joking)but shows you the Israelis are not so subtly gearing up for another round.
To be fair if it was just a ground invasion with no chance of Air Force to strike thousands of armed me.tanks and armored personnel carriers they might make some head way but it would come down to a fight with hts and turkey so they wouldn’t be able to do it and we make jokes about Jordan but same deal with them it wouldn’t go far sometimes the Israelis must think the world is stupid ir at least America(trump)

 

[hyperman]

when Nasrallah was killed, an IRGC general was killed with him in the same bunker. reports now say Hezbollah is continuing to arm itself through some supply routes in Syria and sea routes. who do you think is doing the supplying? and credible reports emerged that after Nasrallah and senior leadership were killed, Iran dispatched senior IRGC officers to help organise and rebuild the C&C structure of Hezbollah. so Iran is already heavily involved in many ways.

in any case, it's not clear that Iran's mostly inaccurate MRBMs could have much impact on an Israeli invasion of south Lebanon, unless we aim for large 'soft' targets and their cities again. nor would Iranians support going to war and getting Tehran flattened to save Hezbollah. There's no logic in bringing a war to your doorstep to save Hezbollah if your objective is to avoid bringing war to your doorstep.

finally, a combined Iran-Hezbollah war on Israel would really get the US and Europe (and most of the Middle East) angry enough to work together to help Israel to crush both for good.

They will come for Iran after Hezbollah. You take out the smaller pieces on the chess board before going for the king, but if Iran decided they are going to just sit it out, then after they are done in other places, they will come for Iran, and there will be no one else left to help..

 

[Sarhang]

Arabs and Muslim in general need to rise up from their own leaders.Iran isn’t the big bad in every country in the middle east Israel plays a far more destabilizing actor in many of these countries it’s making it look like Iran was playing children’s games.

Yemen has been at war for many years sad to say yeah Iran backed the winning group instead of telling the Houthis to sit down and reconcile for the best of Yemen we have this current state but honestly you have GCC playing games on the other side so honestly not like you can call out Iran without calling out a few gcc nations who were complicit in this idiot war.

Iraq is now basically Shias with Iran Sunnis keeping their heads down avoiding conflict and let’s be honest Kurds who are being covertly aided by Israel.

Syria can’t really argue that one Iran should have made Bashar step down after they saved his behind they messed up Bashar wasn’t a friend to anyone.

Iran he

Iraqi resistance is limited it more or less comparable to Houthi they may even have some kind of mrbm that we haven’t seen but not much else other than drones and cruise missiles of inferior quality compared to Iran I don’t see them marching through Syria to Israel or Jordan to Israel.
Iran I feel like they are definitely up to something definitely maybe not a true promise type event but definitely something to stun the Israelis we all know Hezbollah and Iran have long memories and definitely Iran is an eye or eye country.
We have seen the strikes on Hezbollah but weird mostly low level or mid level people if you believe the Israelis we know they have quietly sent thousands of people in civilian attire to south Lebanon because these people live there I think Hezbollah is preparing for the upcoming Israeli invasion it’s going to happen very soon.

The IR is actively undermining the state in all of these countries. In any normal country, the only legitimate actor allowed to carry weapons should be the state, not some militia or ''resistance group''. Thats how a functioning nation operates. But since the Middle East isnt exactly normal this whole argument almost feels pointless.

And yes, Israel has its own issues and plays dirty too but let’s be honest, they are not out there funding and arming militias across half a dozen countries like the IR does.

 

[Sarhang]

I am not sure about that

to me it seems TP2 had the best success rate, with 4-5 direct hits from 180 missiles

TP3 had more hits but they were mostly against city targets rather than large air bases. they changed the targets because of the failures of TP1 and TP2

TP1 was a huge failure. TP2 looked basically a fireworks show. TP3 started off better but got worn down by the end of the 12th day. There were days when only 5–20 missiles were launched... most of which got intercepted anyway.


If the war had gone on for a full month you wouldd have seen a sharp drop in launches maybe even several days in a row with no fire at all.

 

[Sarhang]

when Nasrallah was killed, an IRGC general was killed with him in the same bunker. reports now say Hezbollah is continuing to arm itself through some supply routes in Syria and sea routes. who do you think is doing the supplying? and credible reports emerged that after Nasrallah and senior leadership were killed, Iran dispatched senior IRGC officers to help organise and rebuild the C&C structure of Hezbollah. so Iran is already heavily involved in many ways.

in any case, it's not clear that Iran's mostly inaccurate MRBMs could have much impact on an Israeli invasion of south Lebanon, unless we aim for large 'soft' targets and their cities again. nor would Iranians support going to war and getting Tehran flattened to save Hezbollah. There's no logic in bringing a war to your doorstep to save Hezbollah if your objective is to avoid bringing war to your doorstep.

finally, a combined Iran-Hezbollah war on Israel would really get the US and Europe (and most of the Middle East) angry enough to work together to help Israel to crush both for good.

What the Palestinian user said earlier is actually quite legitimate.

He argued that if Hezbollah and the IR had gone all in, with zero hesitation, into fullscale war against Israel the latter would have been seriously deterred after taking a few major blows something like the 2006 war, but far more intense given Hezbollahs massive missile stockpile.

But hesitation after hesitation slowly drained the groups momentum.

I personally believe the order from the IR was to keep the confrontation limited and that is to show resistance but avoid a full war with Israel.

And to be fair you cant entirely blame the IR either.. most Lebanese citizens definitely wouldnt want their country turning into a second Gaza Strip.

 

[Jalz]

They will come for Iran after Hezbollah. You take out the smaller pieces on the chess board before going for the king, but if Iran decided they are going to just sit it out, then after they are done in other places, they will come for Iran, and there will be no one else left to help..

Hezbollah didn't get involved when Iran was attacked. Israel sufficiently weakened Hezbollah last time that they could fight Iran without worrying about their northern front.

 

[Persian Gulf]

They will come for Iran after Hezbollah. You take out the smaller pieces on the chess board before going for the king, but if Iran decided they are going to just sit it out, then after they are done in other places, they will come for Iran, and there will be no one else left to help..

Israel attacked Iran regardless of Hezbollah existing. Iran tried spending billions on Hezbollah to outsource its security but that failed so now strategy has shifted to spending that money on domestic military capabilities instead

 

[Persian Gulf]

TP1 was a huge failure. TP2 looked basically a fireworks show. TP3 started off better but got worn down by the end of the 12th day. There were days when only 5–20 missiles were launched... most of which got intercepted anyway.


If the war had gone on for a full month you wouldd have seen a sharp drop in launches maybe even several days in a row with no fire at all.

TP3 only started better because IRI adjusted targets to cities after failures of TP1 and TP2

Iran's MRBMs seem to have 100-500m CEP during wartime. which is sufficient for randomly hitting big cities but useless for tactical military objectives.

 

[Shags101]

They will come for Iran after Hezbollah. You take out the smaller pieces on the chess board before going for the king, but if Iran decided they are going to just sit it out, then after they are done in other places, they will come for Iran, and there will be no one else left to help..

They already came for Iran and they actually couldn’t finish the job they started they had to ask for a ceasefire because their interceptors were running low and their skies would have been just as vulnerable as Irans skies were.

Israel will never be able to eradicate groups like Hezbollah Houthi or various other groups yeah they wounded Hezbollah but what doesn’t kill you tends to make you stronger and wiser and probably a hell of lot more pissed off hamas is still standing and as we speak regrouping will they be like before no but they will evolve into Hamas 3.0 etc.

Iran will change with the growth of its society for better or worse, Saudis Arabia has changed from a couple of decades some ways better some ways worse same with turkey same with uae these guys aren’t falling or rising from outside influences nor is Iran by Israel America isn’t going to send a million soldiers to invade Iran and occupy it I think they have at least learned their lessons from Afghanistan

 

[hyperman]

Israel sufficiently weakened Hezbollah last time that they could fight Iran without worrying about their northern front.

yeah, and thats what I'm saying this "strategic patience" isn't really "strategic". All it is, is a reluctance to fight. And eventually it allowed for Israel pick off Hezbollah, without any response from Iran. What its shown, is this whole "axis", isn't an axis. Atleast Hezbollah tried I'll give them that, they aren't as pathetic as the Iraqi PMUs.