Lessons for Pakistan from the Israel/Iran conflict of June 2025

[Falcon26]

If anything, Indian intelligence network in Pakistan is very effective. The assassinations carried out by RAW was on point. How they were able to track and assassinate the target of interests is interesting. What to say when same networks are turned to target state actors in time of war. If not direct assassinations, they can paint/pinpoint their locations which India can target with Brahmos if they want.

The BLA/Baloch groups are already using magnetic bombs to assassinate Pak army officers. Last year a Major returning from graveyard, a motorbike passed by him in traffic, attached a magnetic bomb to his side door and sped off. Bomb detonated within seconds martyring him.

The Indians had historically done better than ISI when it comes to technical intelligence, whereas ISI had the edge in human intelligence. Over the past decade or so, Indian intelligence has invested heavily in human intelligence while also bolstering their technical intelligence.

ISI on the other hand has focused heavily on domestic issues and politics. Even though the ISI has long considered Afghanistan its own backyard, today its influence there is negligible as anti Pakistan entities like the TTP and BLA operate with impunity.

The ISI, like Pakistan itself, is running on reputation. It has long ceased to be an effective intelligence agency.

 

[Oscar]

The Indians had historically done better than ISI when it comes to technical intelligence, whereas ISI had the edge in human intelligence. Over the past decade or so, Indian intelligence has invested heavily in human intelligence while also bolstering their technical intelligence.

ISI on the other hand has focused heavily on domestic issues and politics. Even though the ISI has long considered Afghanistan its own backyard, today its influence there is negligible as anti Pakistan entities like the TTP and BLA operate with impunity.

The ISI, like Pakistan itself, is running on reputation. It has long ceased to be an effective intelligence agency.

I do not agree with the last part of your post, because saying ISI has “long ceased to be an effective intelligence agency” is too broad and frankly reflects a shallow reading of how intelligence systems actually function. It is fair to argue that India has improved over the last decade, especially by investing more seriously in HUMINT while strengthening its technical capabilities, and it is also fair to say Pakistan’s system has become increasingly reactive and distracted by domestic political priorities. But that is very different from claiming the entire institution now survives on reputation alone.

ISI’s shortcomings are better understood as a result of distorted state priorities from the top, followed by weak coordination and degraded follow-through across the rest of the system. ISI does not own troops, does not run the FIA, does not command provincial police, and does not directly govern formations, FC structures, or the chronically weak administrative framework in places like former FATA and parts of Balochistan. It can support, coordinate, and sometimes temporarily prop up parts of that ecosystem, but it cannot substitute for absent governance, inconsistent policy, or a fragmented state response. Expecting one rotating institution, with changing leadership, limited mandates, and finite resources, to compensate for structural failures across the state is not serious analysis; it is a misunderstanding of what intelligence agencies are actually built to do.

 

[Hopefully Pessimistic]

ISI’s shortcomings are better understood as a result of distorted state priorities from the top, followed by weak coordination and degraded follow-through across the rest of the system. ISI does not own troops, does not run the FIA, does not command provincial police, and does not directly govern formations, FC structures, or the chronically weak administrative framework in places like former FATA and parts of Balochistan. It can support, coordinate, and sometimes temporarily prop up parts of that ecosystem, but it cannot substitute for absent governance, inconsistent policy, or a fragmented state response. Expecting one rotating institution, with changing leadership, limited mandates, and finite resources, to compensate for structural failures across the state is not serious analysis; it is a misunderstanding of what intelligence agencies are actually built to do.

This is one of those national characteristics present in Pakistan that are so deeply engrained in the culture, and hence present in every aspect of life & institution that it's hard to imagine where to begin fixing it. Perhaps generations of effort starting at the early schooling level; though even here there seems to be no effort to try.

But it's a general rule that most things in Pakistan run on very low effort, unserious, inefficient, and incompetent yet expect the totally opposite results.

Once you factor in the shitty internal security and regional balance, you can't help but be bearish on Pakistan's trajectory.

 

[Hopefully Pessimistic]

This is a good check-list but it does ignore the value of intelligence collection which was mentioned here.

https://defencepk.com/forums/thread...its-effects-on-proximities.30725/post-1193888

 

[Falcon26]

I do not agree with the last part of your post, because saying ISI has “long ceased to be an effective intelligence agency” is too broad and frankly reflects a shallow reading of how intelligence systems actually function. It is fair to argue that India has improved over the last decade, especially by investing more seriously in HUMINT while strengthening its technical capabilities, and it is also fair to say Pakistan’s system has become increasingly reactive and distracted by domestic political priorities. But that is very different from claiming the entire institution now survives on reputation alone.

ISI’s shortcomings are better understood as a result of distorted state priorities from the top, followed by weak coordination and degraded follow-through across the rest of the system. ISI does not own troops, does not run the FIA, does not command provincial police, and does not directly govern formations, FC structures, or the chronically weak administrative framework in places like former FATA and parts of Balochistan. It can support, coordinate, and sometimes temporarily prop up parts of that ecosystem, but it cannot substitute for absent governance, inconsistent policy, or a fragmented state response. Expecting one rotating institution, with changing leadership, limited mandates, and finite resources, to compensate for structural failures across the state is not serious analysis; it is a misunderstanding of what intelligence agencies are actually built to do.

Fair pushback, but I would argue the ISI isn’t even doing its primary job. No one expects the ISI to compensate for the broader state failure afflicting Pakistan. That’s given. But it lacks in its primary role of intelligence collections and analysis.

For example, Pakistan spent the entire Afghanistan war clandestinely aiding the Taliban. It got sanctioned and isolated for it. As soon as the Americans and NATO left, their supposed proxy turned rogue and initiated an active project of dismantling the Pakistani state.

The ongoing operations by Pakistan inside Afghanistan reflects this basic failure. The ISI didn’t know what it was getting into by supporting the Taliban. Today the Taliban are closer to India than Pakistan. That reflects an intelligence failure of epic proportions. Not to mention the ISI’s failure in locating senior BLA and TTP leadership in Afghanistan. Mossad with substantially less experience in Iran is able to eliminate to the entire cadre of Iranian leadership. RAW is executing operations in Canada and the US.

The ISI’s only known overseas operations in recent years was murdering a Pakistani journalist in cold blood in Kenya.

Ps

One of the most wanted people in Pakistan is a former ISI agent who went rogue and has engineered some of the biggest attacks in Pakistan. So the ISI can’t even handle its own agents.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Dear Pakistan, if a war broke out between Pakistan and India, India will show Pakistan with missiles. We better take our assets either deep in ground or in mountains...

 

[SuperMAG]

Pakistan has strong airforce, strong enough to hold USA-Israel-India for a month, but once its done its finished, no plan b, no war of attrition like iran, no underground bases.

All the bases air, navy and ground will be razed to the ground, almost all leaders will die in decapitation strike.

The only way forward will be nukes and those will end pakistan, india and possibly Israel, but not us. that's a big if they dont get to our nukes first.

The main reason iran is holding on because of their underground cities, that's the only way forward for USA, the only way for attrition war, only guaranteed way for second strike. but iran doesn't have nukes.

i know we have no money, i know most army leaders are skeptical to change but you need to evolve, from here on out, we have to work for underground bases in full speed.

in 10 years we need to have at least 10 major underground bases. and it should not be for one branch only, it should be total army air force and navy and their local production.

I know it will cost money we don't have but it's the highest importance to have both above and below underground bases.

The underground bases should contain all the:

- Multiply command and control in each base in case some are lost
- Rocket force arsenal with production and upgradtion.
- Nuclear arsenal with upgradation and production
- Loitering drone arsenal with production
- Navy drone's arsenal both above and below water
- Some airforce munitions and jets.
- Local air defense production radar and missiles
- Anti tank and Manpads with their production capabilities
- Armor Arsenal

All have to be localized to the last component, if the components are not localized then at least have absurd amount of stock components that we import while the rest will be produced here.

Those bases can also be used for barracks and underground protection for armor, and army personal when under bombardment and the base defenses.

So what's the first thing to do,

1. Make budget adjustments, and mark locations in the map with mountains above and should be in the center of the country map so its not easy to attack it on ground.

2. Import those big ass underground machines from china and start drilling.

3. Once some are done slowly move arsenal and production there. and replace the ones in the ground with excat replica decoy like the iran did with ir capabilities.

The biggest obstacle in the is the budget, other than that we should just twakal alallah.
Sorry for big post, what do you guys think, please post suggestions and adjustments.

My suggestions still holds the main point, underground military is the way to go to survive without air force. Iran war provides a lot of lessons.

 

[hasssanali8998]

Mossad with substantially less experience in Iran is able to eliminate to the entire cadre of Iranian leadership

they have been there since the time of shah

 

[RescueRanger]

they have been there since the time of shah

This is the part people forget. Mossad are deeply embedded inside Iran. Not even up for debate.

 

[Hopefully Pessimistic]

ISI could do what RAW is doing too but its spread thin in domestic politics, domestic insurgencies, Afghanistan, etc...

 

[kimjongun]

The Assassination's RAW is doing is possibile in a country such as us , where unemployment is an all time high , People are savages and can kill someone for some dollars . Infact Raw gives thousand of dollars for a hit and run , which is very profitable for the local shooter . The same cannot be done in india without significant planning and trial and error , the avg foe may be poor but they wont be killing a person that easily , slipping of info will be frequent and seeing how Nationalistic India is they will inform someone else.

 

[Falcon26]

The Assassination's RAW is doing is possibile in a country such as us , where unemployment is an all time high , People are savages and can kill someone for some dollars . Infact Raw gives thousand of dollars for a hit and run , which is very profitable for the local shooter . The same cannot be done in india without significant planning and trial and error , the avg foe may be poor but they wont be killing a person that easily , slipping of info will be frequent and seeing how Nationalistic India is they will inform someone else.

The radicalization of Pakistani society and the introduction of weapons started in the 1980s and the state never had any strategic planning to control the blowback effects of the Afghanistan war. Again, guess who dropped the ball?

By the way, Indians kill each other for much less. India has one of the biggest underground mafia cartels in the world. It’s just that ISI doesn’t have the space to operate in India due to the fact they are already too preoccupied in political engineering and harassing students in Pakistan. Also, RAW and other Indian security agencies will hunt them down in no time.

 

[Distant_Observer]

Pakistanis chimping out for Iran and this is what they think of your Kashmir.

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[RescueRanger]

The lesson... Sometimes you just have to unleash your inner Sultan Rahi:

 

[Yasser76]

The Indians had historically done better than ISI when it comes to technical intelligence, whereas ISI had the edge in human intelligence. Over the past decade or so, Indian intelligence has invested heavily in human intelligence while also bolstering their technical intelligence.

ISI on the other hand has focused heavily on domestic issues and politics. Even though the ISI has long considered Afghanistan its own backyard, today its influence there is negligible as anti Pakistan entities like the TTP and BLA operate with impunity.

The ISI, like Pakistan itself, is running on reputation. It has long ceased to be an effective intelligence agency.

The fact you do not know about ISI's successes is a sign of how good it is. If PAF is a league above IAF. ISI is about 3 leagues above RAW. ISI plays against Mossad and the CIA on a daily basis. RAW cannot even stop Bangladesh from going anti-indian.