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Russia’s military activity has Japan fearing a dual-front war

Japan scrambled its fighter jets 448 times in nine months last year. Most of the intercepts involved Russian or Chinese aircraft

F-15J Eagle fighter aircraft of the Japan Air Self-Defence Force prepare for take-off at Chitose Air Base, Hokkaido prefecture, in 2017. Photo: AFP

Maria Siow
Published: 12:22pm, 27 May 2026Updated: 3:53pm, 27 May 2026

Japan’s call to maintain “impeccable” defences on its northern frontier reflects Tokyo’s deepening concern over growing Russian military activity in the region, analysts say.

They also point to rapid north-south troop deployment exercises as preparation against a potential “diversionary operation” around Hokkaido: a scenario in which Russia could open a second front if Japan were already focused on a crisis with China in the south.

During a visit to military bases in Hokkaido on Saturday, Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi expressed alarm over Russia’s increasing military activities in its Far East region, saying this made strengthening the defence of Japan’s northernmost main island essential.

Russia’s military posture in the Far East region “is a cause for serious concern along with its strategic cooperation with China”, broadcaster NHK quoted Koizumi as saying.

“Even as the importance of strengthening the defence of the southwestern regions grows, Hokkaido remains a vital region, and it is necessary to continue maintaining an impeccable defence system here,” he added.

Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi holds a press conference on May 19. He has called Russia’s military posture around Japan “a cause for serious concern”. Photo: Kyodo

Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi holds a press conference on May 19. He has called Russia’s military posture around Japan “a cause for serious concern”. Photo: Kyodo

Koizumi had earlier visited the Self-Defence Force’s Makomanai Garrison in Sapporo and Chitose Air Base, around 40km (25 miles) to the southeast.
 

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When you live next door to a massive military power, you pay attention to the small noises across the fence.

Governments watch these subtle shifts closely, moving their own security forces just in case. A quiet chill is settling over the water.

Eyes on the north​

Japanese officials are growing anxious. Moscow is steadily building up a formidable military footprint across the Far East. And Tokyo is reacting fast.

Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi recently toured military bases on the island of Hokkaido. He observed that Moscow is teaming up with Beijing in ways that demand immediate attention from local commanders. This sudden shift has everyone on edge.

According to the Japanese broadcaster NHK, Koizumi stated that Russia’s military posture “is a cause for serious concern along with its strategic cooperation with China”.

He made it incredibly clear that the northern island needs heavy protection right now. NHK quoted him saying, “Even as the importance of strengthening the defence of the southwestern regions grows, Hokkaido remains a vital region, and it is necessary to continue maintaining an impeccable defence system here.”

Shifting the troops​

Tokyo is not just watching from afar. The government is quickly rushing armed units toward the Russian border to secure the entire area. It is a massive logistical challenge.

Weapons are already piling up near the Sea of Okhotsk. Moscow recently placed Su-35 fighter jets and heavy missiles on disputed islands right off the Japanese coast.

Shingo Nagata is a visiting researcher at Kanazawa University. He explained that Hokkaido is now a primary shield for the country. Speaking to the Daily Express, he stated, “In light of these mounting tensions, Hokkaido has undoubtedly become the forefront of Japan’s national defence, alongside the southwestern region.”

Preparing for a crisis
Japanese ground forces are actively practicing rapid troop movements to handle the strain. They want to be ready for complex, overlapping conflicts.

Nagata suggested these ongoing drills are meant to counter a specific Russian tactic. He warned of a potential “diversionary operation around Hokkaido to support China during a crisis”.

The looming threat extends deep underwater. Russia is currently expanding its nuclear submarine facilities on the Kamchatka peninsula. They are planning entirely new deep-sea operations.

The South China Morning Post reported that Koizumi highlighted the arrival of the new submarine Khabarovsk. The minister told the publication, “The movements of Russia’s nuclear submarine fleet will remain a major security concern for Japan.”

 

This is something I have been reading about fir some time now

How the 5th generation fighters are horrendous maintenance nitemares with non availablity 24/48 hours after each flight

To house fly and maintain F35 fleet is horrendous

Hence why the likes of Israel order more F15 eagle albeit heavily upgraded versions
 
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Reactions: Waz

The other big issues is the weapons load is too limited

Israeli use F15 to obliterate targets savings F35 for highly specialised roles only
 

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