Operation True Promise II - dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel

[UKBengali]

Air Lora at OTH radars and some kind of internal drone quadcopter strikes against BM production facilities makes most sense to me. limited casualties and Iran could downplay it, but still strong enough to send a message

I don't think Iran will downplay this as this gives the entity "escalation dominance" as Iran's ballistic missile attack last week was retaliation for killing of Haniyah and Nasrallah.

Iran now probably realises that they should have reacted to the quadcopter attack last April as failure to do so just emboldened the entity and led directly to the killing of Haniyah and then Nasrullah, although Hezbollah meekness played a more significant part in this.

 

[Awwad]

There's been talk by pro-israeli commentators that Israel could attack

-nuclear installations
-Oil & Gas installations

IMO, Israel will not do nothing of such sort as that will warrant a bigger Iranian response towards similar high value israeli targets. I think what Israel can do is similar to what Iranians did. That striking an Iranian airbase or a missile base.

 

[Bengal71]

mass casualties would be very disproportionate and lead to massive Iranian response

cyber attack on nuclear facilities is limited in impact and provides good excuse for iran to enrich to 90%. cyber attack on military sites would look weak, they need a direct strike

Air Lora at OTH radars and some kind of internal drone quadcopter strikes against BM production facilities makes most sense to me. limited casualties and Iran could downplay it, but still strong enough to send a message

I am not suggesting it will definitely be a cyber attack or on nuclear or missiles facilities. It could be any creative way that nobody thought about. Who would've thought about the exploding walki talkies.

As for excuse for 90%, there was always a good excuse and that is Iran's very existence. If that excuse wasn't sufficient, nothing will be sufficient.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I am not suggesting it will definitely be a cyber attack or on nuclear or missiles facilities. It could be any creative way that nobody thought about. Who would've thought about the exploding walki talkies.

As for excuse for 90%, there was always a good excuse and that is Iran's very existence. If that excuse wasn't sufficient, nothing will be sufficient.

Iran needs an excuse since it tries to tell the world it abides by NPT and only wants a civilian program

attack on nuclear program is perfect excuse to withdraw from NPT and enrich to 90%

 

[Developereo]

1. mass casualties would be very disproportionate and lead to massive Iranian response

cyber attack on nuclear facilities is limited in impact and provides good excuse for iran to enrich to 90%. cyber attack on military sites would look weak, they need a direct strike

Air Lora at OTH radars and some kind of internal drone quadcopter strikes against BM production facilities makes most sense to me. limited casualties and Iran could downplay it, but still strong enough to send a message

My guess is that the targets would be the top Iranian military command leaders, similar to the Ismail Haniyeh assassination. Maybe even political leaders.

The reason is that

1. This is what they have been doing in Lebanon to Hezbollah.
2. It will put Iranian retaliation in confusion if the people planning the retaliation are killed.
3. It may lead to overthrow of current government, which is what US and Israel agree on most completely.
4. If several important people are killed in one shot, then it will be paraded by Western media as a historic first.

I suspect the delay in Israeli response is to gather movement patterns for these targets and to position kill teams within Iran.

They may do a few conventional strikes as a distraction but their main goal would be these key assassinations.

 

[UKBengali]

My guess is that the targets would be the top Iranian military command leaders, similar to the Ismail Haniyeh assassination. Maybe even political leaders.

The reason is that

1. This is what they have been doing in Lebanon to Hezbollah.
2. It will put Iranian retaliation in confusion if the people planning the retaliation are killed.
3. It may lead to overthrow of current government, which is what US and Israel agree on most completely.
4. If several important people are killed in one shot, then it will be paraded by Western media as a historic first.

I suspect the delay in Israeli response is to gather movement patterns for these targets and to position kill teams within Iran.

They may do a few conventional strikes as a distraction but their main goal would be these key assassinations.

Iran is not Lebanon next door with massive amount of traitors, western embassies/ngos etc. Yes there are some but nowhere near as much as in Lebanon.

To take out the biggest people like Nasrullah and his supposed successor they had to drop 60-80 tons of bunker busting bombs to a place next door with no air defences.

Again people simply overestimate the capability of the entity.

 

[Bengal71]

Iran needs an excuse since it tries to tell the world it abides by NPT and only wants a civilian program

attack on nuclear program is perfect excuse to withdraw from NPT and enrich to 90%

If that's the excuse that's required to build the nukes, then it's nothing but incompetence and delusion on the part of the Mullahs. You don't get into this kind of regional game with nuclear powers like Israel and its backers, it's not a game of soccer where the worst outcome is you lose a match.

Anyway, I am relatively confident Iran already has nukes. But I could be wrong. If the mullahs didn't build the nukes and entered this game and Iran somehow gets nuked by Israel as a result of this, the mullahs should be dragged to the streets by people for their incompetence. If you find them alive after nuking, that is.

 

[Developereo]

Iran is not Lebanon next door with massive amount of traitors, western embassies/ngos etc. Yes there are some but nowhere near as much as in Lebanon.

To take out the biggest people like Nasrullah and his supposed successor they had to drop 60-80 tons of bunker busting bombs to a place next door with no air defences.

Again people simply overestimate the capability of the entity.

They killed Haniyeh in Tehran with a precise strike. They have killed other Iranians within Iran with targeted operations.

Keep in mind that this operation will have full access to the entire US military technology, including spy tech and targeting tech. The US will supply the tech, Israel will supply the HUMINT. There are a lot of people in Iran who are either poor or who don't like the current government for whatever reason.

 

[UKBengali]

They killed Haniyeh in Tehran with a precise strike. They have killed other Iranians within Iran with targeted operations.

Keep in mind that this operation will have full access to the entire US military technology, including spy tech and targeting tech. The US will supply the tech, Israel will supply the HUMINT.

Haniyeh assasination was incompetence of the highest order.

He was placed in a known location and the rooms did not have basic security checks and so bombs were placed in them.

I would like to give the Iranians some credit that they learnt something from that.

 

[Persian Gulf]

They killed Haniyeh in Tehran with a precise strike. They have killed other Iranians within Iran with targeted operations.

Keep in mind that this operation will have full access to the entire US military technology, including spy tech and targeting tech. The US will supply the tech, Israel will supply the HUMINT. There are a lot of people in Iran who are either poor or who don't like the current government for whatever reason.

Haniyeh stayed in a known diplomatic guest house

military officials should stay underground

Israel cannot drop 80 tons of bombs at once on a bunker in Tehran

 

[Bengal71]

My guess is that the targets would be the top Iranian military command leaders, similar to the Ismail Haniyeh assassination. Maybe even political leaders.

The reason is that

1. This is what they have been doing in Lebanon to Hezbollah.
2. It will put Iranian retaliation in confusion if the people planning the retaliation are killed.
3. It may lead to overthrow of current government, which is what US and Israel agree on most completely.
4. If several important people are killed in one shot, then it will be paraded by Western media as a historic first.

I suspect the delay in Israeli response is to gather movement patterns for these targets and to position kill teams within Iran.

They may do a few conventional strikes as a distraction but their main goal would be these key assassinations.

Yeah this is most likely, I think they are going to go after top political leadership

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yeah this is most likely, I think they are going to go after top political leadership

Khamenei is 85 already and the main obstacle to an Iranian nuclear weapon

top IRGC/Iranian army leadership are old generation all in their mid 60s (Bagheri, Salami, Hajizadeh, Fadavi, Mousavi, Heydari, Sahabifard, Jafari) waiting to be replaced by more dynamic, competent, and aggressive modern generation

I don't think they will target these guys

 

[Bengal71]

Haniyeh stayed in a known diplomatic guest house

military officials should stay underground

Israel cannot drop 80 tons of bombs at once on a bunker in Tehran

But all military and political leaders can't be underground.

Israel has demonstrated that they are highly competent and Iranian secret services demonstrated their incompetence. I am fairly confident now that President Raisi's helicopter accident was an assassination.

 

[Developereo]

Haniyeh stayed in a known diplomatic guest house

military officials should stay underground

Israel cannot drop 80 tons of bombs at once on a bunker in Tehran

Their top priority will be to make sure the retaliation command structure is disrupted, either political, military, or both.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Their top priority will be to make sure the retaliation command structure is disrupted, either political, military, or both.

even Hezbollah's C&C structure has been restored after unprecedented strikes decimating many of the top leaders

Iran is a far more resilient institution and there is no realistic prospect of loss of C&C even if they take out entire SNSC at once