Operation True Promise II - dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel

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UKBengali said:
Looks like I underestimated the range of the cruise missiles but the point about relatively easy ability to shoot them down still stands.

As long as a site is well defended with short to medium range air defences, most if not all cruise missiles will be shot down.
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The more shot down the better.
 
A submarine attack scenario is high on the possibility scale IMO. They don't need to be in the Persian Gulf either (can't anyway). It also explains two significant things:
  • Tankers have been flown in the area in a dramatized way. Possibly a feint.
  • The time it's taking for a response allowing for the subs to get into position.
  • Fits well with the 'storied Zionia' narrative
This scenario has actually been top of my mind since TP II.
 
TallGuy said:
@Persian Gulf @Fasbre2

why are we so focused that Israel has options only in Airforce?

they have 5 submarines that have gone quite. easch with atleast 8 Cruise missiles thats forty cruise missiles enough to Telnof style on Isphan or Shiraz AB?

have you heard anything regarding the naval front? its too quiteeverybody looking at IDF/AF and aircraft rufueling at qater or bahrain.

i am sure these submarines are already in Gulf of oman, tfrom there sea-land geography adds up.

any opinion?
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@TallGuy - if you read one of my earlier posts,I actually focused on use of dolphin and Popeyes…
 
UKBengali said:
This means two things:

1. Iran has access to near real-time satellite intelligence(or HUMINT) as they knew the exact location of a mobile radar.

2. They have missiles with CEP of under 10m.
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3 - or an active radar seeker with a manoveuring warhead.
 
Ali_Baba said:
3 - or an active radar seeker with a manoveuring warhead.
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As this was a radar being targeted then the seeker would be passive to home in on the emissions.

I so hope this is true as this would be devastating for the entity as this means they are totally defenceless against Iran as their ABM would be “blinded” before the missiles rain down with precision.
 
UKBengali said:
As this was a radar being targeted then the seeker would be passive to home in on the emissions.

I so hope this is true as this would be devastating for the entity as this means they are totally defenceless against Iran as their ABM would be “blinded” before the missiles rain down with precision.
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yep - passive. My bad.

A radar homing missile by its nature is precise and not reliant on its CEP. A pure CEP missile would be imprecise, depending on its ability to track its location.

It makes you wonder if any ballistic missile war heads can have a small AESA radar to provide a SAR image for terminal guidance? It would be an expensive warhead, but then the target could justify the cost. It is the sort of thing you would expect China and the bigger players to look at for sure.

Iran is good at radar, so maybe you cannot discount the possibility. It would help overcome CEP issues.
 
Ali_Baba said:
yep - passive. My bad.

A radar homing missile by its nature is precise and not reliant on its CEP. A pure CEP missile would be imprecise, depending on its ability to track its location.

It makes you wonder if any ballistic missile war heads can have a small AESA radar to provide a SAR image for terminal guidance? It would be an expensive warhead, but then the target could justify the cost. It is the sort of thing you would expect China and the bigger players to look at for sure.

Iran is good at radar, so maybe you cannot discount the possibility. It would help overcome CEP issues.
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That missile that supposedly took out the radar would have been a Fattah HGV that cannot be intercepted due to unpredictable trajectory.

There are reports that Iran used missiles with following CEP on October 1st:

1. 10m

2. 30m

3. 150m

The impacts far away from structures/runway would have been of type 3.

What counts is how many of 1 and 2 they have. Iran’s current in production missiles are going to tend towards 1 and 2. Hopefully they are producing dozens a month now at least.
 
Did iran launch any spy satellite over middle east ? or does it have access to apy satellite data from china or russia under a treaty
 
maverick said:
Did iran launch any spy satellite over middle east ? or does it have access to apy satellite data from china or russia under a treaty
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Iran designed its own spy satellite that was manufactured by Russia with 1m resolution.
 
UKBengali said:
Iran designed its own spy satellite that was manufactured by Russia with 1m resolution.
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Most likely they might be getting the real time info on the location of systems..

Do iranian MRBM/IRBMs have the capability of mid course guidance correction ?
 
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Reichsmarschall said:
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if this news is true then it seems like itan has human intelligence on the ground, someone took this video ??
 
jauk said:
Another analysis of TP II. Conclusion: Iran has developed a very effective saturation and depletion strategy which is currently not stoppable. Iran has taken an incremental strategy with a sharp increase in usage and success in each strike.

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In the next attack, Iran should target the Iron Dome batteries. I think there are only 10 or 12. Then it will be open season for Hezbollah rockets.
 
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