maverick
Trusted Member
then they have a piece of shit F16
Operation True Promise II - dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel
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ToddE
Trusted Member
Even with AIM-120C and AIM-9X the F-16 is useless unless it has datalinking with IADS+A/GWACS. Iraq is in no position to do this even if they get 100 x F-16C/Ds. They will need a network of search and track radars, HIMADS/SHORADS, more importantly, they will need FABS in the direction of Jordan. It will take 4-5 years to build this eco-system.
Remember when you are fighting Israel, you are fighting the entire IAF+ELINT/SIGINT/SAT network of US/NATO as well who are all integrated in real time. To defeat or even put up a fight against such a system, the IADS needs to see the event from the starting point (Israel) and then keep it in sight while track radars know where to look for target acquisition, even when the enemy is in the terrain mask. Iranian OTH/PESA network can search and detect enemy crafts but Iraq has no HIMAD track batteries to track the targets. A Fighter aircraft just does not have the inherent KE or radar Scan-Width. Even if it does and fires a salvo of AIM-120s at enemy from around Najaf area, Israelis would just easily launch ALBMs some 300 KM away from nearest Iraqi FAB and run back easily. We see this game happening with Syria all the time where MIG-29M armed with R-77 and HMD slaved R-73 is useless.
Iranian leadership did not have the vision to extend IADS into Iraq, they created buffer zones, and militias in these aligned states but never gave them actual meaningful weaponry to fight back. Better late than never though.
Immortals
Elite Member
Problem with Iraq is they are still in cahoots with Western powers. They rely on the western oil giants to extract the oil from their lands and still have a close relationship with the U.S. they won’t jeopardize. So I think moving big systems like IADS or purchasing fighter jets (ie Kowsar) are too controversial and will make Iraq face Western wrath. They had to get sanctions waivers just to be able to purchase Iranian natural gas and receive power from Iran.
As for military targets your guess is as good as mine, I worry that Bibi knows he has 3-4 months till new President gets sworn in to do whatever he wants and the U.S. will begrudgingly support it’s Zionist baby.
Mr Iran Eye
Registered Member
Flotilla
Trusted Member
Chatter in various channels about a very serious leak with detailed plans on Zionia’s attack on Iran. Possibly intentionally leaked by US to undermine Zionia. Source NGIA:
It is plausible. This picture is from yesterday. While it is not obvious It is a KC135 from Rota air base aheading south east. That points to Middle East. Neither Morocco nor Italy.
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ToddE
Trusted Member
I will say that's an advantage rather than a problem, among the Iran led alliance/crescent, Iraq is probably the only country that can still buy or purchase Western, Chinese, Russian, Iranian weaponry simultaneously without any problem.
Iraq-US is a working relationship and nothing else. They have to run a war torn country in the end, can Iran provide the money to replace US? Their central government is massively aligned with Iran and has never back stabbed us. Because of constant attacks by Turkey, Kurdistan autonomy and now Israeli massacre of Arabs, they will stay close to Iran. Its natural. PMU, the largest (or 2nd largest) of Iranian-backed militias, is rampant there, facilitated by the Government.
When you want your own created alliance to strengthen you support the members. Iran made this terrible mistake in Syria where it never re-built the Syrian military even in a defensive way. Mullahs are short-sighted, they sent few isolated mid ranged SAMS, few Fateh-110s and thought that gonna be enough. They should have started IADS development from Iraq to Syria stretching into Lebanon the day Iran could build even any AD asset itself. A network of Search and Track radars, passive trackers, EOs/IRSTs, Jammers, HIMADS/SHORADS mobile batteries, underground BM/CM bases, even FABS. Fighter jets too whether re-built airframes or newly built. Did not NATO, USSR did the same to project power in other continents? Iran can do that in bordering countries, cant it? especially if the ultimate goal is the safety of these countries AND Iran.
Had dozens of mobile Bavar-373, Sevom Khordad (HIMADS), Azarakhsh (SHORADS) were running around from Karbala to Najaf and Rutbeh, how many 25 m2 RCS bearing ALBM armed F-15s would have been shot down? Same story of Mullahs being short sighted.
This episode will pass, I am sure the Israeli retaliation will be symbolic than anything else. ran needs to arm its allies for future no matter what.
AIPAC is too powerful, does not matter who is in white house, their influence would never be less in power circles of US.
My assumption is that Israeli paralysis in retaliation is some under-the-table deal with Iran involving nuclear threshold. Why do you think FM is flying around in the entire world? most of these countries he went to our just client states or puppets of west (HUGE debts).
UKBengali
Elite Member
@Emirzad
Unfortunately Iran needs to build up is own integrated air defence network before it has any spare to give to Syria/Lebanon.
While there is no concrete information how many Bavar-373s there are right now, it may be at most 12 and for a country like Iran that is still not enough as it needs many dozens.
Yes Iran could have supplied a few more SAMs like MRSAM but the problem is that the entity will just use F-35s and other aircraft with ARMs to destroy them relatively easily and quickly. Iran probably thought that it would be a wasted investment and so focused more on helping Hezbollah attain a large rocket/missile/drone arsenal that could act as some deterrent.
Unfortunately Iran needs to build up is own integrated air defence network before it has any spare to give to Syria/Lebanon.
While there is no concrete information how many Bavar-373s there are right now, it may be at most 12 and for a country like Iran that is still not enough as it needs many dozens.
Yes Iran could have supplied a few more SAMs like MRSAM but the problem is that the entity will just use F-35s and other aircraft with ARMs to destroy them relatively easily and quickly. Iran probably thought that it would be a wasted investment and so focused more on helping Hezbollah attain a large rocket/missile/drone arsenal that could act as some deterrent.
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ToddE
Trusted Member
https://defencepk.com/forums/thread...sets-of-iran-current-and-possibilities.14225/
Discuss it here friend.
I already pointed out the problem with leadership, they are short sighted, they should have industrialized the IADS production quickly and TOTed it ASAP to allies post Syrian civil war.
To give you an idea, Iran could mass produce Mersad/Kamin ARH version of I-Hawks with its own ECCM onboard some 12-14 years ago, forget S-400 equivalent Bavar-373. Why did not we see it being supplied to Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon in peace times?
If F-35 is hard to track it does not mean we should give F-15/F-16 a free pass either.
Ali_Baba
VIP Member
Iraq is a sovereign country and they need to make arragements for themselves on how to protect themselves and their country. I dont see them wanting to become Irans proxy. Just look at what is happening to Irans allies in the region while Iran sits pretty. The central goverment may well be friendly, but there is a lot of distance between that and becoming a tool for Iran ............
Irans problems belong to Iran, not Iraq ... Iraq has enough of its own probmlems to deal with right now.
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Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Liquidator
Trusted Member
1 THAAD it maximum efficiency may protect against around 30 ballistic missiles (and I'm being kind on its interception rate).
Iran has the mitigation. Irans response must be disproportionate under the umbrella of a nuclear deterrence.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
1 THAAD battery has 48 interceptors + 48 reloads = 96 total
they will not have time for reloads so 48 interceptors is maximum
2 interceptors per missile = 24 extra Iranian MRBMs needed
that means Iran's response will cost $24 million more than before
not a big amount
Incorrect. Iraq is sovereign and the majority Shi'a hold both political and military power. The powerful PMU is also part of The Resistance which fires projectiles to Zionia and attack US bases on a regular basis. Iraq and Iran are aligned. Iraq also needs revenue...they are threading the needle very well by exporting oil and importing significant amounts of Iranian goods.
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