Opinion: India Pakistan near conflict - Escalation management non-existent
- Thread starter RajaBaja
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v9s
Registered Member
The disruption of the communication between C&C and Strategic forces right?
MRR Nukes (3rd gen)?
Baibers_1260
Trusted Member
India doesn't believe that Pakistan has the capability to attack New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Calcutta, Chennai, Hyderabad, in addition to IoK and western India.
India is hyping the success of its missile defenses and is secure in its belief in the S-400 shield.
While India may have enough S-400s to shield its air bases and nuclear assets, it is doubtful if all major cities inside India are protected from intermediate range ballistic missile threats, particularly the eastern sea board cities. At this time India has 3 batteries of S-400 units and is set to acquire 2 more by 2025 end. The S-400 is not invincible . By comparison Russia had 56 S-400 batteries deployed in 2020 ; but even when concentrating a significant number of S-400 systems to its critical cities under Ukrainian threat in Crimea, Rostov, Kursk and Belgorad regions, these cities were still hit by Ukrainian missiles. Similarly S-400 batteries were largely in-effective in Syria against Israeli air-launched cruise missiles.
The scenario of mutually assured destruction ( or at least India taking a significant damage ) in a nuclear exchange yet remains. However just as the OP in this thread has defined, mutually assured destruction or significant damage is of least concern to our enemy. Pakistan's future existence is now seriously in doubt.
Deterrence:
The only recourse Pakistan has is try to achieve deterrence, which would mean hugely enhancing offensive missile capabilities; though to saturate a territory as large as India with enough missiles is a daunting task. This is known to the enemy, and in their madness they are unlikely to be deterred by the consequences of provoking a retaliation. There maybe a caveat.
Elsewhere on this forum, I had argued for strikes on religious sites, which even though militarily completely irrelevant ( and currently undefended), hold a deep emotional significance to the masses; especially since these are the only ones of prime importance in the world . Luckily, there are no targets of equivalent importance in Pakistan. There is a slight chance that threats to their religious sites ( possibly evoking an ancient fear) will deter the enemy from a full fledged nuclear showdown. A discreet intentional leak from our defense establishment that these sites are on the list of potential targets, might deter this enemy which has a highly superstitious, and religious. I wouldn't be surprised if the co-ordinates of Ayodhya are already locked into the Ababeel missiles.
The blunt fact is that the India-Pakistan conflict has degenerated into a religious war. For people of a secular mindset on both sides, this is the most unfortunate development which pretty much ends any hope for peace and seals our fate to an inevitable slide to complete destruction. The issue for Pakistan is not if it will survive but HOW it will die and how much pain it will inflict on the enemy as it succumbs.
Lt. Gen. Asim Munir summed it up. "As we go down we will take half the world with us "...
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PAKISTANFOREVER
Trusted Member
mythbuster
SpeedLimited
Absolutely clueless hawks showing off their strategic vision.....first learn the ABC before issuing strategic verdict............ 1 ) Pakistan doesn't follow No first use policy....... 2 ) In the last skirmish India wanted to test Pakistan's nuclear threshold , to her chagrin she found out that it's very low........3) Pakistan will not wait to be conventionally overwhelmed before launching nukes , we will not wait for our airbases to be wiped out........4) if you remember , right at the start of the hostilities Pakistan called NSC meeting , it was hushed up cause Pakistan realised it has an edge in conventional war for now.............. India has been checkmated , it won't dare to attack Pakistan in foreseeable future unless she aquires overwhelming superiority of a super power .
PAKISTANFOREVER
Trusted Member
Agreed, we need to wipe out ALL religious indian hindu sites in india. That will have a devastating effect on indian morale.
For the most part, I agree with you. However, based on how the Pakistan military performed and was able to defeat the indian military in May 2025 despite near impossible odds, it is highly likely that Pakistan has MORE than enough nukes to permanently wipe india OFF the face of the universe and the indians ARE aware of this fact. This is what has been preventing from launching a massive ground attack on Pakistan. HOWEVER, Pakistanis main weakness that the indians are exploiting is our propensity for "restraint". Pakistan needs to remove the shackles of restraint and unleash it self on india like a rottweiler.
PAKISTANFOREVER
Trusted Member
From a rational point of view, you are correct. However we are not dealing with a rational adversary. We are dealing with genocidal maniacs who believe in wiping out the Pakistani people, the Pakistani nation and Islam. That is why Pakistan needs to be more bold and aggressive.
PAKISTANFOREVER
Trusted Member
One silver lining I can see from all of this is that this is forcing Pakistan to become a major military power and to improve our economy. The more powerful our military becomes and the more radicalised india becomes, it is more likely that india will tear itself to shreads from within.
Baibers_1260
Trusted Member
Agree.. and the enemy's estimate of our propensity for restraint may lead to an unfortunate misadventure.
Here are the key points:
- Earlier, our preference of mass martyrdom to surrender, in the face of overwhelming odds evoked a dread in the enemy, because even the so-called limited damage it would sustain was unacceptable. This prevented conflicts from escalating as far back as 2002 when Operation Parakaram was launched and fizzled out as a damp squib.
- Now post-Operation Sindoor, the situation has dramatically changed. A comparison: -In 2002 during Operation Parakaram there was still a strong secular lobby in India and the tensions between Pakistan and India (from India's POV) were over Kashmir, and Terrorism. The existence of Pakistan or its legitimacy was not challenged or an issue in India. Most Indians viewed the issues as difficult but still could be resolved. Now the situation is completely different.
- India has a larger philosophical and ideological agenda which has mass support and which unfortunately cannot be discussed diplomatically at the negotiating table.
- India's ideological position: ( a) Pakistan is an illegitimate and illegal state and should not exist. (b) All of Pakistan is historically Indian territory (c) All citizens of Pakistan are historically Hindus by religion, race and culture. (d) Pakistanis have the choice to reject their religion, change their culture and abandon their language OR face elimination and expulsion from the territory of Greater India.
- India's new normal ideological position has unfortunately read the wrong script on Pakistan's polcy of restraint after Operation and moreover sold the viewpoint to its population. Most Pakistanis don't know this. Graphic images of smashed mosques, gruesome bloodied piles of dead bodies of Pakistani women and children were flashed across hundreds of millions of TV screens, mobile phones, laptops, and tablets and every news bulletin in India would have picture-in-picture video feeds of graphic blasts with flames and debris as the missiles struck mosques The victims of India's missile strikes were not just the enemy but specifically "Muslims" and the targets were specifically mosques. Scenes of the carnage evoked a perverse mass cathartic reaction, with Indian news channels overlaying images of the Bahawalpur mosque side by side with video footage of Gaza suitably sub-titled identifying and comparing the two. Message to the Indian masses: We can kill Muslims as efficiently as our ally .
- The mindset in India's masses has changed with a delusional hysteria and hatred never seen anywhere globally since the rise of Nazis in Germany. It is unrealistic to expect any logic or reason for the enemy to launch the most horrific attack on our people resulting in the greatest slaughter known to mankind since the Mongol invasion.
PAKISTANFOREVER
Trusted Member
I STRONGLY believe that Pakistanis in the west need to mobilise and organise ourselves so that we can our motherland and to ALSO protect ourselves from right wing racists. I know it's off-topic but I believe we can kill 2 birds with 1 stone.
abdulbarijan
Registered Member
1- IMHO, we're headed for another round. Modi likes/wants to be perceived as a "strong leader" to his nation, we often paint him as an irrational actor, except if we see through the lens of politics, his moves make sense for he has now successfully cultivated a nation of far right extremists. His actions went from "surgical strikes" to threats of missile strikes to actual missile strikes in a span of 10 odd years. If anyone thinks he's going to roll back, especially after a couple episodes of getting a through arse whooping, Yeah -- that aint happening.
He has all the more reason now to take more risks, because sane people even on his side of the border are questioning his claims. In simpler words, his "strong man" persona is under question by the opposition that humiliated him calling him "Surrender Modi" on the floor of the house.
2- And this time around, Pakistan absolutely cannot play the " we could've taken down X number of jets, but we chose not to in the interest of peace" -- we cannot do it. Not administering overwhelming levels of pain is one of the reasons why India keeps coming back for more.
He has all the more reason now to take more risks, because sane people even on his side of the border are questioning his claims. In simpler words, his "strong man" persona is under question by the opposition that humiliated him calling him "Surrender Modi" on the floor of the house.
2- And this time around, Pakistan absolutely cannot play the " we could've taken down X number of jets, but we chose not to in the interest of peace" -- we cannot do it. Not administering overwhelming levels of pain is one of the reasons why India keeps coming back for more.
PAKISTANFOREVER
Trusted Member
Add to that the fact that india NOW ABSOLUTELY needs to defeat Pakistan militarily in order to become relevant to america and the west AGAIN. IF not then it will 100% fully prove forever that india cannot EVER defeat Pakistan let alone take on China militarily hence rendering india uuseless. The investments, unfeterred indian immigration to the west, economic concessions and other goodies from america/the west to india will dry up. The blowback would have a MASSIVE negative effect on the indian economy that will be damaging beyond anything they can imagine in their worst nightmare. So YES, there is CERTAINLY going to be a HUGE war between Pakistan and india. It's NO LONGER a matter of IF but WHEN!
Rational Philosopher
Trusted Member
[Unconfirmed]
A classified India–Pakistan National Intelligence Assessment Report prepared by the CIA has been leaked on The Black Vault, a Discord community notorious for releasing controversial U.S. intelligence documents, including material on Russia in 2023.
The full assessment spans 13 pages, but only the cover page and the 'Report Summary' have surfaced, with the leaker demanding $3,000 for the remaining 12 pages.
Even so, the summary contains the key findings and evaluations of the report, including a bombshell revelation: India is reportedly planning an imminent incursion across the international border, drawing inspiration from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A classified India–Pakistan National Intelligence Assessment Report prepared by the CIA has been leaked on The Black Vault, a Discord community notorious for releasing controversial U.S. intelligence documents, including material on Russia in 2023.
The full assessment spans 13 pages, but only the cover page and the 'Report Summary' have surfaced, with the leaker demanding $3,000 for the remaining 12 pages.
Even so, the summary contains the key findings and evaluations of the report, including a bombshell revelation: India is reportedly planning an imminent incursion across the international border, drawing inspiration from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
falcon34
Registered Member
CIA disagrees here, they have been testing new missiles non stop, something will happen, it's just a matter of time
