PAF F-16 | Discussions

[rafale]

The Block-15s(ADF/AM/BM) are at the last quarter of their service life - but in the DSCA notification there is specific language in multiple contracts (someone keep me honest @Yasser76 @AeronautIR ).

450M package in 2022 - spares contract dedicated to Pakistan fleet sustainment - a blanket contract that covers a lot of pre-existing RFPs/support cases being awarded in one go.

488M wider contract 2026 - for Radars incl APG-66&68 of which Pakistan has a share - so you're a percentage of that overall contract for likely spares.

686M tech upgrade(avionics/networking) 2025 - this is where it is interesting.
"The proposed sale will maintain Pakistan’s capability to meet current and future threats by updating and refurbishing its Block‑52 and Mid Life Upgrade F‑16 fleet."
So you have kept the MLUs "current" - and more so "the proposed sale is intended to extend the service life of Pakistan’s Block‑52 and midlife‑upgrade F‑16 aircraft through 2040 while addressing critical flight safety concerns."

So the MLUs will also be kept operational for another 15 years and "extend service life".
The ADFs are NOT PART of this sustainment which means likely they might even go first so eventually a AM/BM unit will go back to being OCU. But that definitely some type of service life extension of the airframe is involved @AeronautIR ??

Because in general - to ensure life for Block-52 aircraft beyond 8000 hours is depot level work - the F-16A/Bs could potentially part of it - but that needs replacement/strengthen of wing boxes, reskinning wings etc. which could potentially allow F-16AM/BMs to go beyond 8000 hours this is not scoped at all.

So is a full upgrade for the AM/BMs - you need new radars, mission computers - logical?
Im going to say IF THE MONEY EXISTED -
You do 18 Block-52s to full F-16V
and the 45 odd MLUs to V-lite.

Lets say PAF picks the SABR - that is at least 4.5M installed set - incl lets say 10 spares about 350 mil right there all inclusive.

Wiring, power , software, mission computer - 63 jets is around ~5M per jet - additional 300M to just keep it round figure.

V level EW for Block-52s - while upgraded AIDEWS pods remain for MLUs - another 300M

Spares and so on which would be extra, then there is contractor work, billable hours, TA/DA for NG/LM and other folks

So all in all you end up spending about $2.5 billion but the notification ceiling of $3B.

Btw - this notification is max of spend by Pakistan.

For e.g. - when you bought your Block-52s the notification was $5 billion but you actually spent $3.1B.

Thanks for a more factual estimate of costs........but it seems chump change, considering:

1- 2.5 billion USD will not need be paid upfront, it will be split across phases, part of payments will go as advance payment to start the works and part of them as the progress advances, so you are looking at doling 2.5 billion over probably 3-5 years. That is 500million USD per year and easily doable

2- the money spent will guarantee top tier tech for 63 of your fighters, bolstering your 150km+ BVR capable fleet numbers to well over 100.

3-You can proceed with J-35 after that, assuming economy allows and India poses more threats.

4- Years from now on, if you don't do the upgrades now, you might have all the money, but no support in Washington (that you have today), so better take it while you have it.