PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[Signalian]

Welcome back sir, indeed a key lesson. I have consistently argued that due to these factors, also lessons from our own war we fought, AD is the least effective link and somewhat a resource blackhole, the economy just isn't there. In order to deter Indians from launching a million drones next time, we need to change our stated ROEs. Openly threaten to wreck their economic targets, if they start the show this time, and drive their economy back years, only deterrence will work here, AD would help little....

There was no worthwhile deterrence or combat preparedness against Israeli drones/loitering munitions as well as Brahmos fired by SU30 in 2025.

If the skirmish lingers on for more than 10 days, Pakistan will start to lose edge owing to the fact that all the surprises that Pakistan Armed forces will throw at India (e.g PL-15, HQ-9 etc) will not be effective as India will adapt and re-configure its tactics. Pakistan didnt expect an intrusion of 80+ drones (courtesy Israel), that was a nasty surprise by India. Brahmos was expected, so were the other air to surface attacks by all strike platforms of IAF through israeli help. India didnt expect a network integrated battlefield airspace domination by Pakistan but that edge can be challenged as war continues.

Finally, a hard fact. China didnt help Pakistan the same way, in which Israel helped India. One of the ways would have been delivery of remaining J-10s on adhoc basis, even ex-PLAAF, to bolster numbers. 42 x AESA equipped PAF aircrafts VS 70-80 x IAF fighters isn't a rosy picture.

India knows the Israeli drones penetrated deep into Pakistani territory, then why send expensive aircrafts in the air to launch missiles. Iran showed how long range, fast speed drones can be effective 1000s of km away. The dynamics are changing.

 

[Signalian]

It seems like it’s under development, I hope it turns out like KF-21, I want Pakistan to have a stealthy sexy Jet, although JF-17 is cool, but it’s ugly in appearance.

What edge has stealth of F-22 or F-35 given USAF or IAF against Iran to win the conflict ?

How many A2A kills have been made by F-22 or F-35 against outdated F-4s and Mig-29s.

Iran reverted to drones and most USAF/IAF A2A kills have been against drones of all kinds. IAF used AH64s for A2A kills against drones using mmw radar to lock onto them and then using 30mm cannon to gun them down. Thats what warfare has come to for Israel even after induction of F-35.

The conflict shows that stealth aircrafts are not the game changer that they were thought to be, neither do they decide the outcome. I am not against tech advancement but dont ignore the change in dynamics of combat through recent conflicts.

If PAF deploys stealth aircrafts, even say J-35, the cost of protecting it in hangars, its airfield, its support infra etc against IAF brahmos will be a major headache rather than keeping it airborne for hours and hours against IAF. Imagine the cost of loss of 2-3 x J-35 and then think of replacing them.

and yes cost is the major factor for Pakistan for induction of any aircraft. China isn't giving anything free like it used too (e.g F-6s or artillery guns etc).

 

[Samurai]

Sir, strategic bombers are still relevant. That's why the US, Russia and China are keeping them operational. In fact, the US has been using it extensively to take out AD and hard targets such as the recent use in Iran War. Stealth and cover by jet fighters will enhance its survivability coupled with earlier operations by platforms for EA and SEAD to suppress AD.

Yeah, they are relevant, but as others have pointed out, you need air superiority first and for that to happen, Pakistan need its core fleet to be able to achieve that without loses. Also the geography matters because, US, Russia or China's strategic assets have to travel to long distances to strike with heavy payloads and they are escorted by fighter jets which happens only after air superiority is achieved. In Pak-India scenario, having a strategic bomber fleet waiting to strike right next into your neighbor's territory is a tough stretch and also having its own risks, when the enemy can target those assets with long range missiles. Also we haven't talked about the economics of having and maintaining such bombers.

 

[White Privilege]

There was no worthwhile deterrence or combat preparedness against Israeli drones/loitering munitions as well as Brahmos fired by SU30 in 2025.

If the skirmish lingers on for more than 10 days, Pakistan will start to lose edge owing to the fact that all the surprises that Pakistan Armed forces will throw at India (e.g PL-15, HQ-9 etc) will not be effective as India will adapt and re-configure its tactics. Pakistan didnt expect an intrusion of 80+ drones (courtesy Israel), that was a nasty surprise by India. Brahmos was expected, so were the other air to surface attacks by all strike platforms of IAF through israeli help. India didnt expect a network integrated battlefield airspace domination by Pakistan but that edge can be challenged as war continues.

Finally, a hard fact. China didnt help Pakistan the same way, in which Israel helped India. One of the ways would have been delivery of remaining J-10s on adhoc basis, even ex-PLAAF, to bolster numbers. 42 x AESA equipped PAF aircrafts VS 70-80 x IAF fighters isn't a rosy picture.

India knows the Israeli drones penetrated deep into Pakistani territory, then why send expensive aircrafts in the air to launch missiles. Iran showed how long range, fast speed drones can be effective 1000s of km away. The dynamics are changing.

I would partially agree, there is no deterrence to drone and missile warfare by India, right now, as Indians have already crossed that threshold and have been emboldened. Sindoor 2.0 is going to happen , however what we do when that happens, will determine whether we re-establish deterrence and prevent a 3.0, or not. We will have to prevent the skirmish from lingering on and finish it in a few hours, force the Indians completely off balance,otherwise we will suffer, as u said.It appears we will have to actually wreck havoc to Indian economic targets and create a massive shock for their economy. They can absorb a small war, a quid pro quo plus so we will a e to go very big. Surely Indians can counter launch their drones and missiles but we will have to take that on the chin and make sure we do atleast 100x more damage, and show exactly 0.0 restraint. We show restraint we are done.

On the AD side, it is not all bad however I believe we need a new, out of the box vision. We must think offensively not defensive. Surface to air missiles are expensive, so instead use it to interdict Indian aircraft deep inside their own territory. Induct/develop SAMS that can shoot targets beyond 500+ km and use it in our dogfights as force multipliers. Our PL-15Es have been gamed as well so we will need a longer stick and we cannot keep mount bigger heavier missiles on fighter jets, instead use 'offensive SAMS'.

 

[Par 5]

I have previously advocated for 'balloon mounted radars'.I am not sure if PAF plans this but it looks very useful.

PAF needs to consider and invest in locally developing HAPS (High Altitude Psedo Satellite) Balloons that can be equipped with multitude of sensors for ground and air monitoring