PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[Aamir Hussain]

PAF has its work cut out in terms of aircraft obsolescence that will include replacement of PG's and various Mirage variants in the next 3 years. That would mean replacement of almost 100 plus aircraft! Adding at least 60 J-10CE on top of the already ordered lot or later sub variants and inducting 40 plus J-35 makes sense. Otherwise PAF will be reducing the number of squadrons, very soon.

Furthermore, F-16's were restricted to BARCAPS and that itself is a handicap for the force. I have not heard if PG's were used even for point defense during the brief conflict.

Given the above, logically, I for one, see J-10CE's numbers going up and even some modifications, as a result of BuM (No pun intended) will be entertained and incorporated due to higher number of procured aircraft including facilities for overhaul etc.

As we stand today no further orders are envisaged for JF-17 Block III

Otherwise by 2027 the fleet will have:
40+ J-35 based upon strong indications from inside sources
36 J-10CE (original order)
150 JF-17 various blocks (No further block III aircrafts have been ordered)
76 F-16 various blocks (Very soon some of the older variants need to be retired)

Therefore, a follow-on order of J-10CE is going to happen to replace the PG's. Furthermore, given the gap in actual authorized strength IAF and actual numbers on ground and strong efforts to bridge this gap by GoI, maintaining 370+ front line aircraft is a must for PAF.

My humble observation

 

[Michael]

Adding at least 60 J-10CE on top of the already ordered lot or later sub variants and inducting 40 plus J-35 makes sense.
......
As we stand today no further orders are envisaged for JF-17 Block III

Your plan is too idealistic. Pakistan's current economic situation cannot support it.

Let’s take the PAF’s previous order for 20 J-10CE fighter jets as an example.​

20x J-10CE + 10x WS-10B + 240x PL-15E + Full range of training and maintenance services​

Total contract value: RMB 12.87 billion​

If 60x J-10CE are purchased, PL-15E AAM and WS-10B spare engines are still needed, and maintenance services are also needed. However, the training services can be completed by PAF itself, and there is no need to go to China for training. Some training costs can be saved. Of course, China can continue to provide training.​

We will temporarily calculate according to the previous price, that is, the total price of 60x J-10CE fighters (including weapons, spare parts and services) is 38.61 billion RMB.​

​

The price of the FC-31 fighter (J-35 foreign trade version) is currently uncertain. We estimate that its bare metal price is about twice that of the J-10CE. At the same time, since the FC-31 is a twin-engine fighter, its spare engine ratio is 2:1, that is, one fighter is equipped with one spare engine. 40x FC-31 fighters need to be equipped with 40 WS-21 spare engines.​

My personal rough assessment:​

40x FC-31 fighters + 40x WS-21 spare engines + about 480x PL-15E + full training and maintenance services​

The total price exceeds 50 billion RMB.​

The total purchase expenditure amounted to approximately RMB 90 billion.

This does not include the costs that the PAF will have to spend on airport renovations to accommodate these fighters, upgrades to the air force command system, additional expenses for flight training, etc.

Given Pakistan's current economic situation and the assessment of future economic development, it is difficult for it to support such huge expenditure.

The JF-17B3 will remain the absolute main fighter of the PAF for a long time now and in the future. After all, its cost determines its value.

For PAF, the ideal fighter ratio is: FC-31 / J-10CE / JF-17B3 = 1 : 4 : 16

All existing old fighters are converted into UCAVs. F-16 fighters can be used for daily homeland defense missions.

This approach ensures that the PAF remains an advanced air force and that Pakistan's economy can support it.

 

[Cipher212]

PAF has its work cut out in terms of aircraft obsolescence that will include replacement of PG's and various Mirage variants in the next 3 years. That would mean replacement of almost 100 plus aircraft! Adding at least 60 J-10CE on top of the already ordered lot or later sub variants and inducting 40 plus J-35 makes sense. Otherwise PAF will be reducing the number of squadrons, very soon.

Furthermore, F-16's were restricted to BARCAPS and that itself is a handicap for the force. I have not heard if PG's were used even for point defense during the brief conflict.

Given the above, logically, I for one, see J-10CE's numbers going up and even some modifications, as a result of BuM (No pun intended) will be entertained and incorporated due to higher number of procured aircraft including facilities for overhaul etc.

As we stand today no further orders are envisaged for JF-17 Block III

Otherwise by 2027 the fleet will have:
40+ J-35 based upon strong indications from inside sources
36 J-10CE (original order)
150 JF-17 various blocks (No further block III aircrafts have been ordered)
76 F-16 various blocks (Very soon some of the older variants need to be retired)

Therefore, a follow-on order of J-10CE is going to happen to replace the PG's. Furthermore, given the gap in actual authorized strength IAF and actual numbers on ground and strong efforts to bridge this gap by GoI, maintaining 370+ front line aircraft is a must for PAF.

My humble observation

This is expensive. More JF-17 Block 3s need to be built instead. Preferably with a few upgrades, like IRST and a better engine.

 

[Cesur]

Your plan is too idealistic. Pakistan's current economic situation cannot support it.

Let’s take the PAF’s previous order for 20 J-10CE fighter jets as an example.​

20x J-10CE + 10x WS-10B + 240x PL-15E + Full range of training and maintenance services​

Total contract value: RMB 12.87 billion​

If 60x J-10CE are purchased, PL-15E AAM and WS-10B spare engines are still needed, and maintenance services are also needed. However, the training services can be completed by PAF itself, and there is no need to go to China for training. Some training costs can be saved. Of course, China can continue to provide training.​

We will temporarily calculate according to the previous price, that is, the total price of 60x J-10CE fighters (including weapons, spare parts and services) is 38.61 billion RMB.​

​

The price of the FC-31 fighter (J-35 foreign trade version) is currently uncertain. We estimate that its bare metal price is about twice that of the J-10CE. At the same time, since the FC-31 is a twin-engine fighter, its spare engine ratio is 2:1, that is, one fighter is equipped with one spare engine. 40x FC-31 fighters need to be equipped with 40 WS-21 spare engines.​

My personal rough assessment:​

40x FC-31 fighters + 40x WS-21 spare engines + about 480x PL-15E + full training and maintenance services​

The total price exceeds 50 billion RMB.​

The total purchase expenditure amounted to approximately RMB 90 billion.

This does not include the costs that the PAF will have to spend on airport renovations to accommodate these fighters, upgrades to the air force command system, additional expenses for flight training, etc.

Given Pakistan's current economic situation and the assessment of future economic development, it is difficult for it to support such huge expenditure.

The JF-17B3 will remain the absolute main fighter of the PAF for a long time now and in the future. After all, its cost determines its value.

For PAF, the ideal fighter ratio is: FC-31 / J-10CE / JF-17B3 = 1 : 4 : 16

All existing old fighters are converted into UCAVs. F-16 fighters can be used for daily homeland defense missions.

This approach ensures that the PAF remains an advanced air force and that Pakistan's economy can support it.

I recall a PAF official noting that the 4.5++ generation PFX will be introduced in 2 to 4 years. In my view, that’s a better option because it would likely be more affordable to procure larger numbers, replace older airframes, and it would be technologically superior to both the JF-17 Block 3 and possibly the J-10C. The order for 40 J-35s would remain unchanged and PAF could generate some revenue and use the $4.2 billion JF-17 deal with Azerbaijan too

 

[Michael]

I recall a PAF official noting that the 4.5++ generation PFX will be introduced in 2 to 4 years. In my view, that’s a better option because it would likely be more affordable to procure larger numbers, replace older airframes, and it would be technologically superior to both the JF-17 Block 3 and possibly the J-10C. The order for 40 J-35s would remain unchanged and PAF could generate some revenue by using the $4.2 billion JF-17 deal with Azerbaijan

the 4.5++ generation ?
Currently in the international military field, there is no such statement.
In the official description of the PLA. The stricter description is that the J-10C is a 4th-Gen fighter, and its avionics level is close to that of a 4.5th-Gen fighter. The looser description is that the J-10C is a 4.5th-Gen fighter.
As for the JF-17B3, you can analyze it yourself.
As for the PFX, it does not exist at present.

PFX will be introduced in 2 to 4 years ?
There is no possibility of this.
Whether it can finally get out of the PPT and become a real fighter depends on Pakistan's international political game.
As for the time, it depends on how much support AVIC is willing to provide. At the same time, it will only get more expensive, not cheaper.

40 J-35s would remain unchanged ?
To date, the PAF has not placed a purchase order for the J-35. So, this is a rumor.

 

[hussain0216]

Pakistan doesn't tend to put in large orders, if anything Pakistan tends to buy smaller more affordable batches

I think we have a understanding with allies that this is our economic situation at the moment whilst we attempt to gradually expand the economy

So what's more likely is orders for J10-J35 etc in batches of 10-20 and possible further orders down the line

With this in mind I see a initial order of J35s coming to Pakistan quite quickly, where Pakistan will then spend a few years training pilots, getting to know the aircraft, working out plans and strategies and then when further funds become available, THEN placing a further order

 

[White Privilege]

PAF has its work cut out in terms of aircraft obsolescence that will include replacement of PG's and various Mirage variants in the next 3 years. That would mean replacement of almost 100 plus aircraft! Adding at least 60 J-10CE on top of the already ordered lot or later sub variants and inducting 40 plus J-35 makes sense. Otherwise PAF will be reducing the number of squadrons, very soon.

Furthermore, F-16's were restricted to BARCAPS and that itself is a handicap for the force. I have not heard if PG's were used even for point defense during the brief conflict.

Given the above, logically, I for one, see J-10CE's numbers going up and even some modifications, as a result of BuM (No pun intended) will be entertained and incorporated due to higher number of procured aircraft including facilities for overhaul etc.

As we stand today no further orders are envisaged for JF-17 Block III

Otherwise by 2027 the fleet will have:
40+ J-35 based upon strong indications from inside sources
36 J-10CE (original order)
150 JF-17 various blocks (No further block III aircrafts have been ordered)
76 F-16 various blocks (Very soon some of the older variants need to be retired)

Therefore, a follow-on order of J-10CE is going to happen to replace the PG's. Furthermore, given the gap in actual authorized strength IAF and actual numbers on ground and strong efforts to bridge this gap by GoI, maintaining 370+ front line aircraft is a must for PAF.

My humble observation

what to do if IAF is a no show after the initial battering like this time?? PAF would just be wasting fuel, even being 90+ % sure that IAF would not take to the sky. Instead Indians would bring out Brahmos and similar weapons again.I believe we should invest in ways to attack Indian military nerve centers and command and control hubs cheaply and promptly, taking out the decision makers would hamper Indian belligerence more that any mass platform loss. This means a high hypersonic capable deep ground penetrator missile(s).

 

[MH.Yang]

PAF has its work cut out in terms of aircraft obsolescence that will include replacement of PG's and various Mirage variants in the next 3 years. That would mean replacement of almost 100 plus aircraft! Adding at least 60 J-10CE on top of the already ordered lot or later sub variants and inducting 40 plus J-35 makes sense. Otherwise PAF will be reducing the number of squadrons, very soon.

Furthermore, F-16's were restricted to BARCAPS and that itself is a handicap for the force. I have not heard if PG's were used even for point defense during the brief conflict.

Given the above, logically, I for one, see J-10CE's numbers going up and even some modifications, as a result of BuM (No pun intended) will be entertained and incorporated due to higher number of procured aircraft including facilities for overhaul etc.

As we stand today no further orders are envisaged for JF-17 Block III

Otherwise by 2027 the fleet will have:
40+ J-35 based upon strong indications from inside sources
36 J-10CE (original order)
150 JF-17 various blocks (No further block III aircrafts have been ordered)
76 F-16 various blocks (Very soon some of the older variants need to be retired)

Therefore, a follow-on order of J-10CE is going to happen to replace the PG's. Furthermore, given the gap in actual authorized strength IAF and actual numbers on ground and strong efforts to bridge this gap by GoI, maintaining 370+ front line aircraft is a must for PAF.

My humble observation

The J-7PGs and Mirages that still have airframe life should not be retired prematurely and should be used to retain squadrons and pilot numbers. Long term, 36 J35s, 60 J-10Cs, about 200 JF-17s, and F-16s downsized to 3 squadrons.

 

[Cesur]

the 4.5++ generation ?
Currently in the international military field, there is no such statement.
In the official description of the PLA. The stricter description is that the J-10C is a 4th-Gen fighter, and its avionics level is close to that of a 4.5th-Gen fighter. The looser description is that the J-10C is a 4.5th-Gen fighter.
As for the JF-17B3, you can analyze it yourself.
As for the PFX, it does not exist at present.

PFX will be introduced in 2 to 4 years ?
There is no possibility of this.
Whether it can finally get out of the PPT and become a real fighter depends on Pakistan's international political game.
As for the time, it depends on how much support AVIC is willing to provide. At the same time, it will only get more expensive, not cheaper.

40 J-35s would remain unchanged ?
To date, the PAF has not placed a purchase order for the J-35. So, this is a rumor.

As far as we are all aware the PAF has not placed any new orders for JF-17 Block 3 which means there are other plans.

Even if the PAF intends to upgrade 100 of the 150 Block 1 and 2 airframes to Block 3 standard, there are clear drawbacks. Many of those jets have accumulated significant flight hours, their wings aren’t reinforced for a full weapons load, and the nose cone likely cannot house a substantially larger radar. From an outsider’s perspective, the upgrade doesn’t seem practical. The only model that really makes sense to upgrade would be the dual-seat JF-17B just 26 units.

So as things stand the PAF has to work on 2 issues. Quantity and Quality. It needs to replace Mirage 3 and 5 and F-7PG as there are still between 100-150 units and get 5th generation platforms.

The 20 J-10Cs were initially purchased as a stop gap since India purchased Rafales. Seeing the recent qualitative success against the adversary, that number may go up. But I predict not more than 1 or 2 additional squadrons of 20 planes for a total of 40-60 in inventory.

I can’t specify a timeline, but I believe the J-35 and PFX (similar to the KF-21) represent our future. Financial constraints will be less of a concern as the government and armed forces will prioritize increased funding for the PAF. Everyone recognizes the significance of air power, and future conflicts will hinge on air superiority. Furthermore, I anticipate Pakistan’s GDP growth doubling from 2.5% to 5% over the next 18–24 months, along with higher tax revenues, which will free up additional resources. Moreover, exports of the JF-17 Block 3 to Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Bangladesh will generate substantial revenue too and the special relationship between China and Pakistan is always there to make something happen if required like we saw with the J-10C deal

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Funny video on the J-10---starting at around 1:25

enjoy

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[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

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Who can that be I wonder ?

 

[Aamir Hussain]

The J-7PGs and Mirages that still have airframe life should not be retired prematurely and should be used to retain squadrons and pilot numbers. Long term, 36 J35s, 60 J-10Cs, about 200 JF-17s, and F-16s downsized to 3 squadrons.

Mirages are at the end of their service life and with the advent of S-400 are at an disadvantage. PG's without the PL-15 BVR capability are sitting ducks. They might be useful to patrol the western borders for a while though. Let us not strike out IAF, they will learn and regroup. In the next exchange of pleasantries, between the two forces, things will change.

 

[Oscar]

 

[MS Sandhu]

Your plan is too idealistic. Pakistan's current economic situation cannot support it.

Let’s take the PAF’s previous order for 20 J-10CE fighter jets as an example.​

20x J-10CE + 10x WS-10B + 240x PL-15E + Full range of training and maintenance services​

Total contract value: RMB 12.87 billion​

If 60x J-10CE are purchased, PL-15E AAM and WS-10B spare engines are still needed, and maintenance services are also needed. However, the training services can be completed by PAF itself, and there is no need to go to China for training. Some training costs can be saved. Of course, China can continue to provide training.​

We will temporarily calculate according to the previous price, that is, the total price of 60x J-10CE fighters (including weapons, spare parts and services) is 38.61 billion RMB.​

​

The price of the FC-31 fighter (J-35 foreign trade version) is currently uncertain. We estimate that its bare metal price is about twice that of the J-10CE. At the same time, since the FC-31 is a twin-engine fighter, its spare engine ratio is 2:1, that is, one fighter is equipped with one spare engine. 40x FC-31 fighters need to be equipped with 40 WS-21 spare engines.​

My personal rough assessment:​

40x FC-31 fighters + 40x WS-21 spare engines + about 480x PL-15E + full training and maintenance services​

The total price exceeds 50 billion RMB.​

The total purchase expenditure amounted to approximately RMB 90 billion.

This does not include the costs that the PAF will have to spend on airport renovations to accommodate these fighters, upgrades to the air force command system, additional expenses for flight training, etc.

Given Pakistan's current economic situation and the assessment of future economic development, it is difficult for it to support such huge expenditure.

The JF-17B3 will remain the absolute main fighter of the PAF for a long time now and in the future. After all, its cost determines its value.

For PAF, the ideal fighter ratio is: FC-31 / J-10CE / JF-17B3 = 1 : 4 : 16

All existing old fighters are converted into UCAVs. F-16 fighters can be used for daily homeland defense missions.

This approach ensures that the PAF remains an advanced air force and that Pakistan's economy can support it.

During Gulf War 1991 ,US fielded 1000+ fighters.
But brought only 42 F117 fighters
From which only 36 were used in battlefield.

So Stealth Fighters are not required in large numbers when you have sizeable supportive fleet of 4+Gen fighters.
Almost 30-40 stealth fighters in multiple batches across the 30s is achievable for PAF along with some more small batches of J10Cs.

 

[MasterChief]

Who can that be I wonder ?

Might be able to get an indication depending on electronic antennas on these J10s..... those for China had different antennas compared with J10s for PAF