I tend to agree with you about the cost effectiveness of any Pakistani production line of PL-15E. A key point of interest, however, is the minimum efficient scale for this missile, i.e., what is the minimum number of units that must be produced to make its production line cost-effective. I am not sure if you have any idea of that number though.
No one knows this number.
Combined analysis from CCTV footage and other official news reports:
1. This production line isn't just an assembly line; it also produces components.
2. China has developed several missiles based on the PL-15 air-to-air missile. They are all produced on this production line, including, of course, the PL-15E and LD-8A.
3. Currently, all of China's J-10, J-11, J-15, J-16, J-20, and J-35 fighter jets use these missiles. They are also used by several large and medium-sized Chinese UAVs, as well as future sixth-generation fighter jets and the latest CCA. In other words, this production line serves this enormous demand.
By combining the PLA's own needs with those of the foreign trade market, you can estimate this number.
First, the required number of these missiles (especially if produced in Pakistan) will dramatically increase (much beyond 240 that PAF originally acquired) in the wake of Pak-Saudi defence pact. Moreover, there are significant chances that this pact will expand when at least a few more countries join it. So, the overall requirement for such a missile can easily increase to at least a few thousand pops.
No country would allow this.
I export my technology to you through a ToT model, allowing you to produce your own products. I will only allow it for your own use. But no one will allow you to seize my market share by exporting these products. This is a basic industry rule, unless my own production capacity is insufficient or my production line is shut down.
Second, As I mentioned in my earlier post, the goal should be to absorb the related tech and then come up with quite a few variants of this missile. In that case, not only the cost of setting up the initial production line can be amortized to include those units too, but also the economy of scale can be benefitted.
I've already analyzed this issue in other threads.
The PL-15 air-to-air missile itself isn't highly classified. Its operating principles and basic technology are public. ------The Chinese Ministry of Defense has absolutely no concerns about other countries reverse engineering it.
The real core issues lie in materials technology and precision machining. These capabilities are solely related to a country's industrial capabilities in these areas. The United States and some developed European countries possess these technologies. However, their problems are:
1. They can't make missiles with the same technical specifications using this same principle so small. CCTV previously demonstrated highly precise micro-AESA machining technology.
2. The spacer in the center of the dual-pulse solid rocket motor. When the first stage of solid fuel burns, the spacer must ensure that the combustion does not affect the second stage of solid fuel. When the second stage of solid fuel ignites, the spacer must instantly shatter and be ejected along with the flames. This requires specialized materials technology.
If Pakistan truly wants to research these technologies, it would be wise to send its technicians to Chinese universities.
I think it will offer an opportunity for Pak to attain that capability faster and probably cost-effectively too. Once Pak does achieve that, it will be in a position to upgrade or even design new missiles on its own. Please note that the mutual interests of the two iron brothers are so solidly overlap that security of one is indeed required for that of the other.
I don't want to discuss politics anymore. Some Pakistani friends here say I am anti-Pakistan.
