Pakistan has a Problem | Quwa Group - My Counter Thoughts

[MS Sandhu]

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I have listened to this podcast
It was very well laid out and thought provoking in nature.Thanks to Quwa for this master piece.

But I have some concerns.
1- China doesn't face brahmos threat but in reality China is actually facing Brahmos from now.Philipines is becoming active ground against China
US has deployed serious missile systems + now they are putting up Brahmos also for rapid forward response.
So China is also facing Brahmos in at least naval domain and in future, Hypersonic Cruise Missiles are also coming to South China Sea via Japan, Australia and co with US partnership.
So threat environment for China is rapidly taking new dimension significantly similar to that of Pak.

2- Countering Brahmos with Hypersonic Ballistics is no go. I don't agree with this.
I already pointed this out in argument with @Rationalist that Pak should not go back to SCM tech but pursue a ballistic based Hypersonic.Who introruced the Supersonic threshold in subcontinent? It was india and now there are going for ballistic based Hypersonic anti ship weapons that will also see versatile use
So pak going for ballistic based Hypersonics for conventional use is not really nuclear escalation and makes sense to prepare for next round.
Even Russians are using Hypersonic Aero ballistic missiles like Kinzhal in real combat .

So these were two points where i disagree with Asim & @arslank01

 

[alphapak]

Pakistan has Babur cruise missiles,
but they did not use them.

 

[mythbuster]

Quwa is looking at present scenario with outdated lens covered with dust and mist .

 

[Falcon26]

Not sure why, but @Quwa seems to have taken an alarmist point of view. Their previous podcast was awkward in many ways. Healthy skepticism is always good but shouldn’t degenerate into reflexive pessimism. There’s a line between caution and undue alarm, and they seemed to have crossed it.

The May skirmishes certainly exposed Pakistan’s gaps in air defense and GHQ’s unfounded and irresponsible “maturity & restraint” nonsense but there were many many positives as well. Pakistan’s successes were globally acknowledged, something Quwa doesn’t seem to find relevant.

A lot of respect for what Bilal Khan, Arslan & the aviation engineer guest (forgot his name) are doing but skepticism should be in a healthy dose not over flavor the whole thing.

 

[Waz]

Pakistan has Babur cruise missiles,
but they did not use them.

They might have upset the Indians, who were raining down Brahmos strikes.

 

[Developereo]

Quwa is looking at present scenario with outdated lens covered with dust and mist .

I didn't hear anything new or insightful that is not discussed here a hundred times already. We have known about the BrahMos since 2016 and everybody is walking around with their pants down as if this came out of the blue.

 

[mythbuster]

Not sure why, but @Quwa seems to have taken an alarmist point of view. Their previous podcast was awkward in many ways. Healthy skepticism is always good but shouldn’t degenerate into reflexive pessimism. There’s a line between caution and undue alarm, and they seemed to have crossed it.

The May skirmishes certainly exposed Pakistan’s gaps in air defense and GHQ’s unfounded and irresponsible “maturity & restraint” nonsense but there were many many positives as well. Pakistan’s successes were globally acknowledged, something Quwa doesn’t seem to find relevant.

A lot of respect for what Bilal Khan, Arslan & the aviation engineer guest (forgot his name) are doing but skepticism should be in a healthy dose not over flavor the whole thing.

Self aggrandisement and projection of himself as a balanced and objective analyst..... it's human nature.

 

[Ak01]

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I have listened to this podcast
It was very well laid out and thought provoking in nature.Thanks to Quwa for this master piece.

But I have some concerns.
1- China doesn't face brahmos threat but in reality China is actually facing Brahmos from now.Philipines is becoming active ground against China
US has deployed serious missile systems + now they are putting up Brahmos also for rapid forward response.
So China is also facing Brahmos in at least naval domain and in future, Hypersonic Cruise Missiles are also coming to South China Sea via Japan, Australia and co with US partnership.
So threat environment for China is rapidly taking new dimension significantly similar to that of Pak.

2- Countering Brahmos with Hypersonic Ballistics is no go. I don't agree with this.
I already pointed this out in argument with @Rationalist that Pak should not go back to SCM tech but pursue a ballistic based Hypersonic.Who introruced the Supersonic threshold in subcontinent? It was india and now there are going for ballistic based Hypersonic anti ship weapons that will also see versatile use
So pak going for ballistic based Hypersonics for conventional use is not really nuclear escalation and makes sense to prepare for next round.
Even Russians are using Hypersonic Aero ballistic missiles like Kinzhal in real combat .

So these were two points where i disagree with Asim & @arslank01

Just some clarification-
The brahmos threat China faces is quite different- the reason why its alot worse for us is the lack of strategic depth- as i mentioned, we have seconds from detect to intercept, whereas they have quite the ability to be able to detect, decide, intercept etc. We effectively need to launch whatever we can, and fast, once we spot. Thats the real issue, which is why we drew parallels to Israel (who has to use data from sensors in other countries etc to be able to prepare for an attack and thwart successfully) and some of the smaller European states.

In terms of your second point- the reality is, ballistic missiles are ballistic missiles, they're alot more limited in what can be done and also, relatively 'easier' to intercept- predictable ish trajectories etc. I personally disagree with relying wholly on ballistics like the PN may do by equipping ships with SMASH for example- but in the same sense, i also disagree with looking at finding a counter to Brahmos, as opposed to looking into the future and having a solution that can meet tomorrows needs. We can see the effectiveness of ballistics against a well defended adversary via the iran/israel clashes- from what we saw, there wasnt anything remarkable achieved by Iran. Personally, HACM/LRHW are the kind of solutions we should look towards, but really and truly, these are beyond our means and will require Chinese/Russian experience and a significant financial backing

 

[Rational Philosopher]

Pakistan has Babur cruise missiles,
but they did not use them.

Babur is subsonic.

BrahMos travels at Mach 3.

 

[Dalit]

Not sure why, but @Quwa seems to have taken an alarmist point of view. Their previous podcast was awkward in many ways. Healthy skepticism is always good but shouldn’t degenerate into reflexive pessimism. There’s a line between caution and undue alarm, and they seemed to have crossed it.

The May skirmishes certainly exposed Pakistan’s gaps in air defense and GHQ’s unfounded and irresponsible “maturity & restraint” nonsense but there were many many positives as well. Pakistan’s successes were globally acknowledged, something Quwa doesn’t seem to find relevant.

A lot of respect for what Bilal Khan, Arslan & the aviation engineer guest (forgot his name) are doing but skepticism should be in a healthy dose not over flavor the whole thing.

Despite victories one needs a critical view and always look for improvements. Pakistan needs a solid answer to BrahMos. Next time India dares to launch BrahMos, Pakistan needs to have an immediate answer.

 

[Ak01]

Not sure why, but @Quwa seems to have taken an alarmist point of view. Their previous podcast was awkward in many ways. Healthy skepticism is always good but shouldn’t degenerate into reflexive pessimism. There’s a line between caution and undue alarm, and they seemed to have crossed it.

The May skirmishes certainly exposed Pakistan’s gaps in air defense and GHQ’s unfounded and irresponsible “maturity & restraint” nonsense but there were many many positives as well. Pakistan’s successes were globally acknowledged, something Quwa doesn’t seem to find relevant.

A lot of respect for what Bilal Khan, Arslan & the aviation engineer guest (forgot his name) are doing but skepticism should be in a healthy dose not over flavor the whole thing.

The issue is, and im sure @Quwa and @JamD will agree, but, we have not even scratched the surface, while on the forums, the situation looks all well and good, the reality is, there is significant failings in the 'system'.

While we could sit there and talk about xyz planes intercepted- what benefit does this bring to the discussion? The idea is not to sit there and praise babar etc for shooting down a couple of planes, because in the grand scheme of things, this isnt really very meaningful. This is their job and aircraft losses are expected.

I cant see many other 'successes' from the strikes. BuM was very much an optics driven attack, to feed the thirst of the locals for revenge, there was no meaningful results from the strike and beyond anything, it exposed even further shortfalls in their operational capabilities- but otoh, it was a very limited, hands tied behind the back kind of deal so i guess theres that too.

The thing is, and i cant speak for the others, but i dont find it particularly relevant in the overall picture that the IAF lost a few planes. What we find is this uncovers a real deeper issue, the Indians have *thousands* of BrahMos, if this had broken into a full scale war, i genuinely believe there wouldnt have been any recovering, it would have meant a significant blow to Pakistan. The other aspect which has come to light is effectively, at this point in time, India is able to strike deep, deep in Pakistan, the Idea was that airbases far west are safe- they're not. This changes the entire psychology of the forces, the realisation that nothing is safe is not a small one, it sets a very somber mood. The Indians can effectively retaliate to whatever they want, strike Pakistan far and deep and what they've realised is Pakistan either wont respond, or just give a half arsed, optics driven response to feed the local pop. This is the biggest takeway.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@alphapak

Pakistan has Babur cruise missiles, but they did not use them.

Why not?

Regards

 

[Ak01]

I didn't hear anything new or insightful that is not discussed here a hundred times already. We have known about the BrahMos since 2016 and everybody is walking around with their pants down as if this came out of the blue.

which is the issue. We have been struck by BrahMos before, we couldnt do anything about it then. Its happened again, we had years to prepare, learn and protect. We didnt. This is the issue.

In terms of nothing new- unfortunately we're regular users of the forum so our talking points wont change, you will see us discuss the same things here, and there, we cant tailor our talking points for those who have or have not already discussed these matters with us sadly

 

[Ak01]

Pakistan has Babur cruise missiles,
but they did not use them.

They might have upset the Indians, who were raining down Brahmos strikes.

@alphapak

Pakistan has Babur cruise missiles, but they did not use them.

Why not?

Regards

What you should wonder is *how many* they have- this is where you will see the desperation of the situation, vs the thousands of BrahMos stocks.

 

[kambhakt]

At 5:34 he said that there were two brahmos failure and six to seven hit. Where did he get those figures from.