Pakistan has a Problem | Quwa Group - My Counter Thoughts

[mythbuster]

Despite victories one needs a critical view and always look for improvements. Pakistan needs a solid answer to BrahMos. Next time India dares to launch BrahMos, Pakistan needs to have an immediate answer.

We need economy of scales in missile production to counter brahmos threat

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Quwa is looking at present scenario with outdated lens covered with dust and mist .

The first episode had a whiff of the anti-Government, anti-Military rant squeezed in the second half of the episode.

 

[Ak01]

At 5:34 he said that there were two brahmos failure and six to seven hit. Where did he get those figures from.

based off of wreckage pics i have collected. The hit number is likely larger- however ive got two intercepts/fails.

 

[Bratva]

The issue is, and im sure @Quwa and @JamD will agree, but, we have not even scratched the surface, while on the forums, the situation looks all well and good, the reality is, there is significant failings in the 'system'.

While we could sit there and talk about xyz planes intercepted- what benefit does this bring to the discussion? The idea is not to sit there and praise babar etc for shooting down a couple of planes, because in the grand scheme of things, this isnt really very meaningful. This is their job and aircraft losses are expected.

I cant see many other 'successes' from the strikes. BuM was very much an optics driven attack, to feed the thirst of the locals for revenge, there was no meaningful results from the strike and beyond anything, it exposed even further shortfalls in their operational capabilities- but otoh, it was a very limited, hands tied behind the back kind of deal so i guess theres that too.

The thing is, and i cant speak for the others, but i dont find it particularly relevant in the overall picture that the IAF lost a few planes. What we find is this uncovers a real deeper issue, the Indians have *thousands* of BrahMos, if this had broken into a full scale war, i genuinely believe there wouldnt have been any recovering, it would have meant a significant blow to Pakistan. The other aspect which has come to light is effectively, at this point in time, India is able to strike deep, deep in Pakistan, the Idea was that airbases far west are safe- they're not. This changes the entire psychology of the forces, the realisation that nothing is safe is not a small one, it sets a very somber mood. The Indians can effectively retaliate to whatever they want, strike Pakistan far and deep and what they've realised is Pakistan either wont respond, or just give a half arsed, optics driven response to feed the local pop. This is the biggest takeway.

People on this forum easily forgets, Pakistan missile program is under heavy sanctions from USA. USA blacklisted multiple companies even this year. We are bound to be affected by these sanctions. But people forget and think Pak has the capability to churn 100's of missiles at will.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@arslank01

Arsalan sb,

What we find is this uncovers a real deeper issue, the Indians have *thousands* of BrahMos,

Read on some blog that IND has an extraordinary 14000 Brahmos. This seems fanciful given our actual military budget and the per unit cost of Brahmos. My best guess would be closer to 1500-2000 units.

Regards

 

[Ak01]

People on this forum easily forgets, Pakistan missile program is under heavy sanctions from USA. USA blacklisted multiple companies even this year. We are bound to be affected by these sanctions. But people forget and think Pak has the capability to churn 100's of missiles at will.

Exactly- while we throw around things like we should strike back via Raad/Babur- the question should be asked, India used the Upper Tier of their strike assets against us, however, we we're only able to use the lower tier- that too, some TEL's of Fatah let off 2 missiles and wrapped up- what people should be asking is why didnt we use them? Could it have something to do with a lack of stocks perhaps?

 

[Ak01]

@arslank01

Arsalan sb,

What we find is this uncovers a real deeper issue, the Indians have *thousands* of BrahMos,

Read on some blog that IND has an extraordinary 14000 Brahmos. This seems fanciful given our actual military budget and the per unit cost of Brahmos. My best guess would be closer to 1500-2000 units.

Regards

Yep, id put it at around 2000-3000, however, production rates for the next 10 years were put at 200+ per year, so the aim is to effectively double your stocks, that too, with more modern local variants.

 

[Ak01]

The first episode had a whiff of the anti-Government, anti-Military rant squeezed in the second half of the episode.

if criticism is anti nashnul anti govt blah blah then so be it- ironically the three of us have varying political views and i have absolutely none. Im not interested in Pak politics the slightest, couldnt care less about munir, ik, ss, etc... So do with that what you will.

 

[Developereo]

which is the issue. We have been struck by BrahMos before, we couldnt do anything about it then. Its happened again, we had years to prepare, learn and protect. We didnt. This is the issue.

Why can't we use the BrahMos strength against itself? The faster a missile, the less manoeuvrable it is in a given time. It's plain physics.

BrahMos is primarily a line of sight missile. Given that the likely ingress is from the east (India) or south (Indian Navy), we should be using mountains or artificial fortifications as shields in those directions.

There is the off chance that India could use their base in Tajikistan or get creative with Afghanistan, but that can be taken into account.

 

[mythbuster]

Exactly- while we throw around things like we should strike back via Raad/Babur- the question should be asked, India used the Upper Tier of their strike assets against us, however, we we're only able to use the lower tier- that too, some TEL's of Fatah let off 2 missiles and wrapped up- what people should be asking is why didnt we use them? Could it have something to do with a lack of stocks perhaps?

No man , we didn't wrap up after couple missile launches .... it's unwanted exaggeration......our retaliation was massive.

 

[Bratva]

Exactly- while we throw around things like we should strike back via Raad/Babur- the question should be asked, India used the Upper Tier of their strike assets against us, however, we we're only able to use the lower tier- that too, some TEL's of Fatah let off 2 missiles and wrapped up- what people should be asking is why didnt we use them? Could it have something to do with a lack of stocks perhaps?

In 2019, General Bajwa told Hamid Mir the real reason of Pakistan restrain. Our tanks were inoperable due to critical shortage of engine lube/oil from Russia. We are not ready to go to war with India based on the defective inventory we have. . I think people should re-visit Hamid Mir video once again to grasp the reality of Pak Army.

My Wife Chachi, has 2 brothers, One in ISI, one in GHQ, Full Colonel and Brigadier rank. Both said, we have only 12-14 days of supplies and stock to fight intensive war with india, after that Nuclear threshold will come.

Whenever Pakistani officials, Army, Airforce or Politicians use the words restrain ( which they said a lot in this skirmish), Know that they are not gonna use full capability in the skirmish and conserving their inventory and stocks for the conventional war when and where India crosses border and full fledge war begins.

People should also appreciate the fact that our newly purchased ADS saved Pakistan to large extent in this skirmish. What they did, if weren't for them, our 3-4 bases would've been razed completely and easily and acknowledge that Fatah-1 didn't had that wow effect which would make anyone a Field Marshal and Field Marshal promotion is optics based, not merit based.

 

[Falcon26]

The issue is, and im sure @Quwa and @JamD will agree, but, we have not even scratched the surface, while on the forums, the situation looks all well and good, the reality is, there is significant failings in the 'system'.

While we could sit there and talk about xyz planes intercepted- what benefit does this bring to the discussion? The idea is not to sit there and praise babar etc for shooting down a couple of planes, because in the grand scheme of things, this isnt really very meaningful. This is their job and aircraft losses are expected.

I cant see many other 'successes' from the strikes. BuM was very much an optics driven attack, to feed the thirst of the locals for revenge, there was no meaningful results from the strike and beyond anything, it exposed even further shortfalls in their operational capabilities- but otoh, it was a very limited, hands tied behind the back kind of deal so i guess theres that too.

The thing is, and i cant speak for the others, but i dont find it particularly relevant in the overall picture that the IAF lost a few planes. What we find is this uncovers a real deeper issue, the Indians have *thousands* of BrahMos, if this had broken into a full scale war, i genuinely believe there wouldnt have been any recovering, it would have meant a significant blow to Pakistan. The other aspect which has come to light is effectively, at this point in time, India is able to strike deep, deep in Pakistan, the Idea was that airbases far west are safe- they're not. This changes the entire psychology of the forces, the realisation that nothing is safe is not a small one, it sets a very somber mood. The Indians can effectively retaliate to whatever they want, strike Pakistan far and deep and what they've realised is Pakistan either wont respond, or just give a half arsed, optics driven response to feed the local pop. This is the biggest takeway.

Totally agreed BuM was for local consumption and not a real military response. But the downing of 6 Indian fighter jets and the grounding of the Indian Air Force for two days (per their own admission) wasn’t a trivial matter. The Indians never used their Air Force after the initial battle and even by their own admission, fired their munitions on the 10th from extreme ranges.

Pakistan’s response was hampered by army dominated GHQ which turned a clear win on the 7th into an unnecessary mess.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

@alphapak

Pakistan has Babur cruise missiles, but they did not use them.

Why not?

Regards

Babur/Ra'ad are nuclear capable cruise missiles in Pakistan's arsenal.

Pakistan, like rest of the world had assumed Brahmos was also a dual use missile (nuclear capable) as that's what Indians had been claiming for decades and, this weapon was not expected to be used so early on in the conflict, hence, the US and others stepping in.

After the war, Indian officials have been saying that Brahmos is only a conventional cruise missile and not a nuclear capable missile.

All this means is that Pakistan will now update it's war doctrine, take the kiddie gloves off and bring forward the cruise missiles in anticipation of the next war. Basically India's Hindu Extremist Government has turned the region into a nuclear flashpoint.

 

[Falcon26]

In 2019, General Bajwa told Hamid Mir the real reason of Pakistan restrain. Our tanks were inoperable due to critical shortage of engine lube/oil from Russia. We are not ready to go to war with India based on the defective inventory we have. . I think people should re-visit Hamid Mir video once again to grasp the reality of Pak Army.

My Wife Chachi, has 2 brothers, One in ISI, one in GHQ, Full Colonel and Brigadier rank. Both said, we have only 12-14 days of supplies and stock to fight intensive war with india, after that Nuclear threshold will come.

Whenever Pakistani officials, Army, Airforce or Politicians use the words restrain ( which they said a lot in this skirmish), Know that they are not gonna use full capability in the skirmish and conserving their inventory and stocks for the conventional war when and where India crosses border and full fledge war begins.

People should also appreciate the fact that our newly purchased ADS saved Pakistan to large extent in this skirmish. What they did, if weren't for them, our 3-4 bases would've been razed completely and easily and acknowledge that Fatah-1 didn't had that effect and Field Marshal promotion is optics based, not merit based.

The army has always been the weakest link in the Pakistan military. It’s badly run and inefficient which is not surprising given its extracurricular activities.

 

[Ak01]

Why can't we use the BrahMos strength against itself? The faster a missile, the less manoeuvrable it is in a given time. It's plain physics.

BrahMos is primarily a line of sight missile. Given that the likely ingress is from the east (India) or south (Indian Navy), we should be using mountains or artificial fortifications as shields in those directions.

There is the off chance that India could use their base in Tajikistan or get creative with Afghanistan, but that can be taken into account.

The issue is, because of the rate at which it closes in at, you will need an exceptionally agile missile, like CAMM/IRIS-T. This is why we mention, the biggest weight will be carried on the shoulder of really agile MR/SRSAM's, not massive poles like HQ-16/9. This time its not a matter of interception ranges, rather, reaction speed. We need to plug that sr-mrsam gap ASAP with systems like CAMM and co which can get out fast and kill. The MRSAMs were also what did most of the work on the Indian side too, QRSAM/Barak 8.

PA/PAF AD currently looks like this
LRSAM
HQ-9P/BE
HQ16FE
160km+

MRSAM
HQ16B/EV
FD2000
125km+


SRSAM
SOME HQ-16A
40km

CIWS
SPADA
15-20km?

This massive gap between MRSAM-CIWS is the problem.

The reality is the HQ series are derived off of older soviet long range designs, suffering from the same limitations. A one missile does all approach, if you look at other systems, PATRIOT, IRIS T, S400 etc, they all use different missiles for different target type, because u simply cannot just have one missile that will be amazing against hypersonics but also long range fighter engagements etc. We need to plug that gap