Pakistan-India Conflict 2025: News Updates and Discussion

[maverik]

Can you please elaborate on these "war drums"? Its more wishful thinking on Pakistanis than anything else? We need to be careful what we wish for. We cant assume Indians will make same mistake as 19 and 25

Read my post again i didnt say we should start it indians are upto something and it may not be a skirmish like before

 

[pakistanitarzan]

Read my post again i didnt say we should start it indians are upto something and it may not be a skirmish like before

Im asking what makes you think Indians are up to something? Can you please elaborate?

 

[maverik]

Im asking what makes you think Indians are up to something? Can you please elaborate?

many things he has summarized it very well

 

[pakistanitarzan]

many things he has summarized it very well

I have seen this video bhai. Doesn't usually their typical pattern starts with false flag though? Unless they do preemptive!

 

[K2RULEZ]

The Indians are very triggered since the last few days.

 

[falcon34]

many things he has summarized it very well

After what happened to them in may last year they won't do it until they have an ace up their sleeves

 

[maverik]

I have seen this video bhai. Doesn't usually their typical pattern starts with false flag though? Unless they do preemptive!

This time, they might mimic a surprise attack like their fatherland. The strategy is transparent: starting with the BLA in Balochistan(herof3?), North with the TTA and TTP, and targeting AJK through the JAAC(they already practiced road closers). However, my assessment is that they intend to seize territory this time around(American ambassador speech), and their panicked reaction when the Pakistan Army deployed 250 SH-5, probing gaps in our airdefense through drones in AJK, last time they fired brahmos which fell in Mia channu to see how we counter it..

 

[White Privilege]

So regarding the Bholari strike, I had opined about three distinct possibilities here:

Post in thread 'PAF J-10CE News Updates and Discussions part ll'

May 16, 2026

Why a AWAC was Stationed so near the enemy Border- and why AIR DEFENCE failed here - what’s lecture for future?

The way SAAB2000 was targeted, there could be one of the three possibilities:

1. Indians had been tracking that particular a/c and exactly knew where it landed prior to the strike. There was this confusion regarding the cessation of hostilities and PAF was caught off guard. The enemy could track the plane right up to the hanger where it was parked, either through the almost real time satellite imagery from their own birds in the space or guessed the parking location once...

• Falgrine

• 
• 

After listening to this certain AM Kapoor here:

it seems that it was a case of an educated guess hitting its mark i.e. the first possibility I tried to hint on.

Earlier in the same podcast, the AM rightfully did not accept the claim for the much propagandized SAAB2000 kill by the S400. While it is true that the missile was launched at the 3 Sqn guys flying at the very edge of the S400 envelope, they detected the launch well in time and dived down to run. Could have been tricky if the corrective action was taken a bit later.

The point is that according to the Indian AM, they could gather data on and study the PAF AEWC patterns before and during the actual conflict, which lead to the targeting attempt on the particular a/c landing at Bholari.

This makes me intrigued about the following:

1. Its seemed that PAF decision makers took the Indian ceasefire acceptance on the face value. The SAAB2000 was flown into the Bholari while it sits so near (in relative terms) to the border. Given the fluid situation, why such a risky stand down was authorized at that time and location. PAF knew the Brahmos range so why 3 Sqn guys were diverted there.

2. You have redundancies in the infrastructure built to avoid this very scenario. Apparently there was only one hanger and once Indians had tracked the SAB2000 down to the Bholari AFB, they just had to wait for the plane to get inside it and then lob their Brahmoses. Had there been a few more such infrastructures (large hangers) or better, a few larger hardened/underground pens for HVAA, the risk of what happened could have been drastically curtailed.


3. Was the flight profile and EMCON discipline of the SAAB2000 crew really up to the mark. SAAB is a bigger a/c and on the active sensors it would have appeared quite easily. InAF Passive sensors could have picked the emissions from an even longer distance. Shouldn't the EriEye crew have flown low well before coming to land at Bholari and followed a complete electronic silence. Would it have still been detected. Do the Indians even have an OTH radar coverage.

He (the Indian AM guy) also somewhat indicated that he 'went rogue' and ordered the strike to proceed when hostilities were near the end, this indicates that Bharatis backstabbed us

 

[K2RULEZ]

After what happened to them in may last year they won't do it until they have an ace up their sleeves

The Indians are so triggered.

 

[Oscar]

Actually they did same harkat on 10th May (interestingly at same midnight time) -- Again amritsar / lahore area -- and subsequently after more than an hour they launched attacks on PAF bases -- so i wouldn't say it was just random error on 8th

They launched missiles at nothing and triggered a self destruct?
or perhaps wanted Pakistani radars to light up so they could avoid/jam those corridors.

Which as tactics go is smart - unless off course you are using complete missiles with advanced guidance and controls on them that - if you used 9M96E costs $500k per missile and if you use the 48N6 its nearly $1 million .
That is a very expensive self destruct.