Oscar
Moderator
It depends on who they have finally calling the shots. The rather simplistic assumption is that regardless of rational or irrational - regimes built on religious themes are working on the common "political religious" theme as their main motivation when it is usually far from the truth. I forget how many times I stated this but at the end you could have had a pastafarian revolution in Iran with the flying spaghetti monster and yet they would still be focused on proxies and extending their influence net. Moreover, because of the initialization of the IRGC as a separate force with separate command structures, Iran really does have an issue at times of the right hand not knowing what the left is up to.Only if they are still trying to be nice at that point.
Or they can fire a missile or three, again.
It's the frikkin Persian empire - one of the original world powers - not going to lose that characteristic that easy. For that matter the relationship with Pakistan eased because they realized when Israeli F-35s were flying 100km from Tehran they need to pipe down and save their assets so you had their entire transport fleet parked half at Quetta and Karachi along with other critical equipment while "show of force" cover was provided to ensure those assets being chased down by the IDF would not violate Pakistan airspace. to the extent that Pakistan had to send certain messages saying it was only going to ensure safety of "civilian" assets seeking refuge and did not want to be dragged into this conflict.
The Iranians have every reason to be humble & contrite at this point because they realized they had no other neighbor even willing to discuss this. But to consider it long lasting genuineness is to consider Pakistan's overtures to trump or vice versa or any international relationship genuine. It's transactional in ways most people never look into, transactions that go well beyond just monetary or physical material but words and commitments.
Put on one of my favorite movies yesterday - Redford and Pitt's "Spy Game" - the movie may seem far fetched and fictional - but the idea that a senior or group of senior operatives in an intelligence agency(or bureaucracy or cabinet or anything else) can run their own parallel operations for personal reasons isn't far from reality.






