Pakistan Missiles - Updates, News & Discussion

JamD said:
Hate to rain on the parade here but these kinds of "clouds" form almost everytime there's an SLV launch at dusk or dawn. It is the rocket exhaust in the upper atmosphere hitting the sun just right. Not saying it could not be something amazing. But likely it is just a BM launched at dawn and people are getting excited because some guy thought this somehow means hypersonic. Just do a Google image search for noctilucent launch clouds.
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So do you reckon they are launch or rentry clouds that appeared near Quetta? Someone calculated around the time of the Chinese launches a few months back, that the BM must be atleast several hundred km range to form such clouds. A quick check with ChatGPT seems to support that assertion. The question I asked was based on a 300km ballistic range rocket:

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I dont think it was a vertical/ near vertical launch, that would have appeared very differently.

Also, by extending the reasoning, I posit with non-expert knowledge, if the launch came from a few hundred kms away (e.g. north punjab), and the splash happened in around Pasni/Gawadar, then such clouds in Quetta would imply a HGV.
 
m52k85 said:
So do you reckon they are launch or rentry clouds that appeared near Quetta? Someone calculated around the time of the Chinese launches a few months back, that the BM must be atleast several hundred km range to form such clouds. A quick check with ChatGPT seems to support that assertion. The question I asked was based on a 300km ballistic range rocket:

View attachment 156709

I dont think it was a vertical/ near vertical launch, that would have appeared very differently.

Also, by extending the reasoning, I posit with non-expert knowledge, if the launch came from a few hundred kms away (e.g. north punjab), and the splash happened in around Pasni/Gawadar, then such clouds in Quetta would imply a HGV.
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It is quite easy to be fooled by ChatGPT because it answers with great confidence. There is no substitute (yet) for actual expertise. I would try to avoid falling into confirmation bias by looking for reasons for this to be an HGV.

Here's what I know:
These are called lenticular clouds. However, the ones we are seeing are formed by rocket plumes. You can debate whether or not to use the name lenticular, however, the clouds we are seeing are formed at very high altitudes at which regular cloud formation is rare. These clouds form when rocket exhaust cools rapidly in (I believe) the stratosphere. The striking visuals are due to the sun hitting them just right at dusk or dawn. They are seen regularly with SpaceX launches that happen near dusk/dawn.

Even if I assume a low number like 20km for their height and assume I am in Quetta, I can theoretically see them from 500 km away - Sonmiani is 550 km away. It could be launched from somewhere else like DG Khan too. Also BMs are never launched vertically (except sounding rockets maybe), you don't want to hit yourself, obviously.

The point is that this is a very high altitude phenomenon and I wouldn't start guessing launch locations and trajectories based on where this was seen.
 
Simply put, if the videos are not doctored, the following can be noted:

  • This was a rocket plume at high altitude
  • Unusual because this is inconsistent with previous launches from Pk. Generally seen with liquid-fueled upper stages (orbital or near orbital)
  • The second video that surfaced showed pulsed firing, or a rapid change in attitude. This could be consistent with a skipping trajectory, OR with a pulsed motor to maintain or increase missile speed during the glide/coast phase
  • Given the altitude, it is at least a medium-range system. The NOTAM was telling too
  • There is reason to speculate that it could be air-launched. If the notam area was used, it would be consistent with a flight from the northern region, release over northern, altitude gain over central Pakistan, and gliding through the southern region, splashing in the Arabian Sea at a designated point.

    An ALBM (with some maneuvering?) seems like the best-fit scenario. This is all guesswork based on available info.


 
The message was good enough, no announcement is needed. Now the Hinduvta leadership will know that they are not safe anywhere in their country... it will be highly stupid of them to attack pakistan after seeing what Pakistan can do..

Let me hear them talk about Brahamos now.
 
maverick said:
The message was good enough, no announcement is needed. Now the Hinduvta leadership will know that they are not safe anywhere in their country... it will be highly stupid of them to attack pakistan after seeing what Pakistan can do..

Let me hear them talk about Brahamos now.
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When we have procured J-10CE and we were saying we have the first look, first shoot capability, did they believed? they still do attacked us. This morning saga is not even confirmed by us so they dont be bothered
 
Two things here.

1- It is no coincidence that only a few days ago FM Asim Munir said:

“Should a fresh wave of hostilities be triggered, Pakistan would respond much beyond the expectations of the initiators,” COAS Munir warned.

“With diminishing distinctions between conflict and communication zones, the REACH and lethality of our weapon systems will shatter the misconceived immunity of India’s GEOGRAPHIC warspace.

2- There is no reason for NOT ANNOUNCING this test. The reason is very simple - if such a test was conducted successfully, an announcement would LITERALLY STOP INDIA IN ITS TRACKS ! So in my view - announce it because cowards like Indian and Taliban do not understand "strategic ambiguity".
 
MapleKing said:
"Never Believe Anything Until It Is Officially Denied"
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Yup, its been officially denied twice. Two government run or government tool organisations were activated. The Minion nobody knows, Mehekma Mosamyaat, or Meteorology department and Dawn news.
Met department calling it a type of cloud which doesnt look remotely like that and Dwan news Quoting that.
So now i beleive even more than before that it was caused by something pointy
 
www.dawn.com

Every missile test Pakistan has conducted in recent months

Missiles range from ground-launched cruise missiles to medium-range ballistic platforms.
www.dawn.com

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".................
The Twilight Glow which have created flurry of discussions
  • The rocket's exhaust plume, released at a very high altitude, becomes illuminated by the sun, even though the sun is below the horizon for observers on the ground.
  • The particles in the exhaust plume—water, carbon dioxide, and other byproducts—refract the sunlight. These particles function like tiny prisms, scattering the light into a rainbow of colors and creating the glowing, cloud-like appearance.
  • The unusual shape, sometimes called a "space jellyfish," is caused by the high-altitude winds dispersing the exhaust plume

" Hypersonic missile trails can appear like northern lights due to two main phenomena: the "twilight phenomenon,"

where the trail reflects sunlight at high altitudes, and the ionization of air molecules in the wake of a re-entry vehicle.

While the colorful, spiral "space jellyfish" effect is caused by the twilight phenomenon from frozen fuel, the glowing wake behind a re-entry vehicle is from the ionization of air particles. "

"On September 29, around 6 pm local time, a large solid-fuel booster was launched from northern China, following a path that maximized its visibility across several provinces.

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The launch produced a bright, silver-white plume that changed into colorful veils as the sun illuminated the high exhaust at about 70-110 km (45-70 miles)."



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