Pakistani Nuclear Forces

Nukes guarantor of peace: National Command Authority adviser​

The Newspaper's Staff Reporter
May 31, 2025

ISLAMABAD: As experts on Friday warned that Indian military provocations, including its recent Operation Sindoor, were testing the limits of Pakistan’s conventional capabilities and nuclear thresholds, risking dangerous miscalculations, National Command Authority Adviser retired Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai emphasised the role of the country’s nuclear weapons in ensuring peace.

“Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program is the sole guarantor of peace and stability in South Asia,” Gen Kidwai said in his keynote at a round table discussion hosted by the Center for International Strategic Studies to mark the 27th anniversary of Pakistan’s 1998 nuclear tests.

Speakers at the event described India’s response as a reckless attempt to challenge Pakistan’s strategic restraint.

Among others who spoke at the meeting were former foreign secretary Sohail Mahmood, director general of the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad; Muhammad Naeem, former chairman of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission; Dr Adil Sultan, dean of Air University; and retired Brig Dr Zahirul Haider Kazmi, adviser on arms control at the Strategic Plans Division.

The speakers warned of an emerging pattern in which India employs false flag operations as pretexts for limited military strikes, ignoring the risks inherent in a nuclearised environment. Such behaviour, they said, could trigger catastrophic misjudgments with far-reaching consequences.

“India has shown a pattern of conducting false flag operations as a casus belli to justify aggressive actions against Pakistan, disregarding the prevailing nuclear environment and deliberately testing the limits of Pakistan’s conventional capabilities and nuclear thresholds,” CISS said in a statement on the discussion.

“Pakistan’s credible nuclear capability, operationalised through Full Spectrum Deterrence, remains the cornerstone of peace in South Asia,” one of the speakers said, arguing that the recent confrontation underscored the continued relevance of nuclear deterrence in preventing conflict escalation.

They also emphasised Pakistan’s readiness to respond to future provocations with a range of kinetic and non-kinetic options, as part of ‘Quid Pro Quo Plus’ strategy — defined as swift, and precise retaliation aimed at deterring escalation and compelling de-escalation.

Published in Dawn, May 31st, 2025
 
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gamaji said:
Please share the link to the actual video. Thanks.
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In 1983, at Kirana Hills, GIK, Gen. K.M. Arif, Munir Ahmad Khan & PAEC scientists smiled — Pakistan had just cold-tested its first nuclear device.
A secret milestone, decades ahead.

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Hakikat ve Hikmet said:
What Pakistan thinks (and acts accordingly) today the rest of the Muslim world thinks it tomorrow....
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Pakistan rushed to get the bomb when it could get it done, while the world was still bogged down in the Cold War and post Soviet issues. By the time Pakistan, validated its status with the opportunity India gave it, it was too late for Pakistan to go back to a threshold state status. Pakistan was lucky to have its status buried by the 2001 American war in Afghanistan, so it became a fait accompli. We are nearly 30 years into Pakistan being an open nuclear power.

But, clearly Pakistan CAN’T afford rest on its laurels, and needs to build up beyond what any power can cripple all of the Pakistani strategic forces.
 
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FuturePAF said:
Pakistan rushed to get the bomb when it could get it done, while the world was still bogged down in the Cold War and post Soviet issues. By the time Pakistan, validated its status with the opportunity India gave it, it was too late for Pakistan to go back to a threshold state status. Pakistan was lucky to have its status buried by the 2001 American war in Afghanistan, so it became a fait accompli. We are nearly 30 years into Pakistan being an open nuclear power.

But, clearly Pakistan can afford rest on its laurels, and needs to build up beyond what any power can cripple all of the Pakistani strategic forces.
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I believe you meant to write "can't afford to-", in the last line.

And agreed. I think Pakistan should consider the following:

— A new generation of strategic missiles with a greater focus on penetration ability. Learning from Iran-Israel missile strikes.

— Assessing our second-strike capability in the event of a decapitation strike. (Effectively, a ballistic missile submarine will be needed for this truly)

— Assessing our command, control, storage and launch parameters, and their survivability.
 
Rationalist said:
I believe you meant to write "can't afford to-", in the last line.

And agreed. I think Pakistan should consider the following:

— A new generation of strategic missiles with a greater focus on penetration ability. Learning from Iran-Israel missile strikes.

— Assessing our second-strike capability in the event of a decapitation strike. (Effectively, a ballistic missile submarine will be needed for this truly)

— Assessing our command, control, storage and launch parameters, and their survivability.
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Yes, that’s what I meant (darn autocorrect :) ). I updated the post accordingly. Thanks.

More so than a ballistic missile submarine, we need underground missile bases where missiles can be fired from within the safety of small launch pads in the mountains; pop out, fire and go back in. Thousands of openings and hundreds of miles of tunnels. The way China does it but knowing enemy IR sensors are constantly watching.

Command and control, storage, and connecting paths need to all be very very deep underground, so that not even the largest bunker busters can get at them.

We definitely need to improve the missiles to ensure they can get through the most modern air defenses anywhere in the world, and expand the arsenal to at least 500 warheads if not a 1000; that too of higher yield; 250 kt like North Korea’s H bombs. Powerful enough that if one gets through, it will be so devastating that in the face of 500 or a 1000 warheads, which the enemy can’t fully account for, they will be deterred by the shear scale of the capability.

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Pakistan should focus on the potential capabilities sitting with the US DTRA office (Defense Threat Reduction Agency). For anyone in the Pakistani strategic circles, what this office entails is a clear and present danger to Pakistani strategic assets given what has happened in Iran.

The US DTRA office is actively working on neutralization plans against a range of threats and Pakistan's nuclear program has got to be one of the priorities for them.

"There's an organization in the US called the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, DTRA. DTRA does a lot of things for our nation, but DTRA is the world's leading expert on deeply buried underground targets.

In 2009, a Defense Threat Reduction Agency officer was brought into a vault at an undisclosed location and briefed on something going on in Iran. For security purposes, I'm not going to share his name. He was shown some photos and some highly classified intelligence of what looked like a major construction project in the mountains of Iran.

He was tasked to study this facility, work with the intelligence community to understand it, and he was soon joined by an additional teammate. For more than 15 years, this officer and his teammate lived and breathed this single target, Fordo, a critical element of Iran's covert nuclear weapons program.

He studied the geology. He watched the Iranians dig it out. He watched the construction, the weather, the discard material, the geology, the construction materials, where the materials came from. He looked at the vent shaft, the exhaust shaft, the electrical systems, the environmental control systems, every nook, every crater, every piece of equipment going in and every piece of equipment going out.

They literally dreamed about this target at night when they slept. They thought about it driving back and forth to work. And they knew from the very first days what this was for. You do not build a multi-layered underground bunker complex with centrifuges and other equipment in a mountain for any peaceful purpose.

They weren't able to discuss this with their family, their wives, their kids, their friends, but they just kept grinding it out. And along the way, they realized we did not have a weapon that could adequately strike and kill this target, so they began a journey to work with industry and other tacticians to develop the GBU-57. They tested it over and over again, tried different options, tried more after that.

They accomplished hundreds of test shots and dropped many full scale weapons against extremely realistic targets for a single purpose, kill this target at the time and place of our nation's choosing. And then, on a day in June of 2025, more than 15 years after they started their life's work, the phone rang and the president of the United States ordered the B-2 force that you've supported to go strike and kill this target........

.....And one last thing. Our adversaries around the world should know that there are other DTRA team members out there studying targets for the same amount of time, and will continue to do so."
 
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