POST WAR assessment of recent conflict.

[JamD]

As you can see I started the thread with that very same question. Where was Babur? Something which has been refined, had its range and payload extended. It was developed for such reasons and this was the perfect test scenario. Yet nothing.

As far as Babur is concerned, we have repeatedly said that it has a nuclear role - so I do understand the reluctance to use Baburs. Furthermore, I am sure that Baburs are quite expensive.

However, I did not see massive LM strikes on India. Either we haven't built those stockpiles yet or didn't want to use them. Even F1 F2 are expensive systems that should form the tip of the spear not the entire spear.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Pakistan suffers from lack of strategic depth as its major cities are very close to the Indian border, while India's major cities are far away

Allocating a lot of resources to point defence would not help too much as the attacker usually has the advantage

instead, Pakistan needs low-cost, long-range munitions to counter this and attack targets deep into India if necessary

Iranian Shahed-136 and Shahed-238 drones would be good options. cheap and long range and battle tested at similar distances in Ukraine.

 

[hussain0216]

As far as Babur is concerned, we have repeatedly said that it has a nuclear role - so I do understand the reluctance to use Baburs. Furthermore, I am sure that Baburs are quite expensive.

However, I did not see massive LM strikes on India. Either we haven't built those stockpiles yet or didn't want to use them. Even F1 F2 are expensive systems that should form the tip of the spear not the entire spear.

Both F1 and F2 are not light weapons, they are fast, mobile and deadly

The conflict wasn't that advanced, we had a week or so of back and forth

The longer the conflict went on the more these weapons would have been used?

What would babur or Raad do that Fatah 1 and 2 couldn't within the 450km range

 

[LeGenD]

The PAF demonstrated much professionalism and excellence in clashes. India apparently lost the capability to conduct airstrikes inside Pakistan and switched to using drones and cruise missiles to attack Pakistani infrastructure. The PAF also demonstrated the capability to attack Indian defenses. The ISPR provided valuable information and addressed some misconceptions (see this and this). This is not to say our officials are infallible as information can be cross-checked for accuracy in other reliable sources.

China has surpassed Russia and Europe in developing military technology on some counts. J-10C armed with PL-15E missiles and HQ-9P proved effective in clashes.

The PA demonstrated the importance and utility of the Fatah MRL in attacking high value targets inside India in conventional capacity. The Fatah MRL was originally conceived as a platform ideally suited to launch tactical nukes but it also useful in conventional role.

The unthinkable happened. Scores of Indian drones slipped through Pakistani defenses and reached sensitive areas such as military bases and some drones found their mark in the process. Although many drones were small and lacking in kinetic punch but Indian Army can learn much from experience. This is a domain in which Pakistan Army needs to develop further capability because drones can provide unmatched operational utility and the capacity to attack high value targets from a distance.

Limited disclosure culture. Both Pakistani and Indians can learn about some developments from independent sources but not in local sources due to censorship. Information of losses is found on the web in bits and pieces and there is no attempt to compile it for public knowledge on a single website or platform in official capacity. People in both countries are largely oblivious to challenges and horrors of war and more into boasting or exaggerated claims. The level of cringe on MSM is unmatched. Media personalities are more into overhyping responses with excessive use of "Mooh Toor Jawab" instead of offering a more nuanced view of a developing situation. There is also a Breaking News every minute. Perception of superiority over the other side is created but it is rather unclear that both sides can afford a prolonged conflict situation.

Propaganda warfare. Both sides assume that propaganda warfare is a good practice but it reduces credibility. False claims should be discouraged and debunked. Acceptance of losses shows maturity and makes people aware of the price that is paid to uphold national security. Denials in the face of visual evidence show immaturity and lack of professionalism. Indians need to understand this matter most of all. Don't be a laughing stock.

Pakistani armed forces seem to fight more effectively in the present, Alhamdulillah. This is in part due to development of a better C4ISR system. However, it is unclear that Pakistan can secure IOK in a prolonged conflict situation. Nevertheless, India does not have technological superiority over Pakistan due to shortcomings in its systems.

Public safety. This member has a point. The government needs to create awareness about different threats and what to do. Less focus on smartphones and uploading content on SM for viewership. Place value on saving lives instead of romanticizing risks. There are reports of loss of innocent lives due to lack of awareness.

 

[Rational Philosopher]

Pakistan suffers from lack of strategic depth as its major cities are very close to the Indian border, while India's major cities are far away

Allocating a lot of resources to point defence would not help too much as the attacker usually has the advantage

instead, Pakistan needs low-cost, long-range munitions to counter this and attack targets deep into India if necessary

Iranian Shahed-136 and Shahed-238 drones would be good options. cheap and long range and battle tested at similar distances in Ukraine.

I doubt the Shahed series will be able to reliably penetrate past the neighbouring Indian States at the border though, they fly too slow and can be intercepted before then. It leaves only high-cost high-speed maneuvering warheads.

The strategic depth problem is Pakistan's achilles' heel.

 

[hussain0216]

One thing we also have to remember,

Something will get through

Israel is tiny and it jews hundreds of billions out of the U.S and west to protect itself and STILL whether against irregular forces like Hezbollah or Hamas or against Iran SOMETHING always gets through, or their is no way in stopping it

The same situation in Ukraine and Russia
I Forget how many S400s Moscow has surrounding it but it's been attacked multiple times


Pakistan has a natural weakness we are a smaller nation that is not very wide and our cities are close to the border

So drones, missiles will get through to targets and we must work out a way to protect assets and hit back

Is offense the best defence

If our cities are under attack does Delhi and Mumbai have to be attacked severely



Asset build up is a constant affair
So subs, ships, etc are all being built and kitted out so we will be in a better position in 5 years
Now I know we used drones extensively in this conflict but I still can't work.out which ones and especially which loitering drones we used and whether we can mass produce at home or a reliant on supply


Fatah 1 and Fatah 2 were made specifically for this type of conflict to target areas and high value targets

They are the right choice and then you gradually escalate to baburs, Raads, and SRBMs

India is bigger and will have a natural advantage as much of it is far from Pakistan, it is what it is and we must overcome as best we can

 

[hussain0216]

I doubt the Shahed series will be able to reliably penetrate past the neighbouring Indian States at the border though, they fly too slow and can be intercepted before then. It leaves only high-cost high-speed maneuvering warheads.

The strategic depth problem is Pakistan's achilles' heel.

Whether it's the shaheed or YiHa which we use, their role is to soak up enemy AD missiles to


We can always look at if we need a improvement on YiHa

 

[Waz]

As far as Babur is concerned, we have repeatedly said that it has a nuclear role - so I do understand the reluctance to use Baburs. Furthermore, I am sure that Baburs are quite expensive.

However, I did not see massive LM strikes on India. Either we haven't built those stockpiles yet or didn't want to use them. Even F1 F2 are expensive systems that should form the tip of the spear not the entire spear.

But it's the same for Brahmos i.e. it's nuclear capable. They should come to know that Babur should be a primary conventional attack missile as well, yet it was held back.

 

[Starlord]

As far as Babur is concerned, we have repeatedly said that it has a nuclear role - so I do understand the reluctance to use Baburs. Furthermore, I am sure that Baburs are quite expensive.

However, I did not see massive LM strikes on India. Either we haven't built those stockpiles yet or didn't want to use them. Even F1 F2 are expensive systems that should form the tip of the spear not the entire spear.

WRT to the trajectory and ability to maneuver, avoid detection, was using FATAH a better option compared to Babur ? Fatah is more like a Guided Rocket/Quasi Ballistic while babur is Cruise missile, do you think that use of Fatah was a better idea given all targets hit were within FATAH-1/2 range.

 

[JamD]

Both F1 and F2 are not light weapons, they are fast, mobile and deadly

The conflict wasn't that advanced, we had a week or so of back and forth

The longer the conflict went on the more these weapons would have been used?

What would babur or Raad do that Fatah 1 and 2 couldn't within the 450km range

I don't know how what I wrote gave you the impression that I was advocating the use of Babur instead of F1 or F2.

I am arguing that F1 F2 should've made up 10% of a strike with 100s maybe thousands of LMs.

 

[JamD]

WRT to the trajectory and ability to maneuver, avoid detection, was using FATAH a better option compared to Babur ? Fatah is more like a Guided Rocket/Quasi Ballistic while babur is Cruise missile, do you think that use of Fatah was a better idea given all targets hit were within FATAH-1/2 range.

Honestly, I cannot say for sure how effective Fatah was or how effective Babur may have been. However, if I had to guess, F1/F2 would be harder to shoot down.

 

[JamD]

But it's the same for Brahmos i.e. it's nuclear capable. They should come to know that Babur should be a primary conventional attack missile as well, yet it was held back.

I think initially these used to say nuclear capable but not for a long time. And maybe they've said that they can be modified to carry them. They have established it as a conventional weapon as far as I know.

 

[PakistaniDefender]

At risk of repeating what others have said, our SSM v SAM game was not on top. A couple of drones and Fatah-1 simply won't cut it, we needed to fire cruise missiles and Fatah-2s as well.
PAF completely obliterated the IAF at aerial combat on day one but after this we became too soft on them fearing escalation.

I think Fatah 2 were fired as well

 

[Oscar]

As far as Babur is concerned, we have repeatedly said that it has a nuclear role - so I do understand the reluctance to use Baburs. Furthermore, I am sure that Baburs are quite expensive.

However, I did not see massive LM strikes on India. Either we haven't built those stockpiles yet or didn't want to use them. Even F1 F2 are expensive systems that should form the tip of the spear not the entire spear.

There is messaging attached to every system and platform - which India completely ignored btw - and unfortunately Pakistan’s policy makers in the Moeed Yusuf category are still swallowing that the “norms” established from 87 onwards through “sane” governance in India with Pakistani counterparts are all out the window. In many cases leaving even those that established or were “honoring” these on the Indian side shocked and dismayed but their own “yes men” cheerleader hawks are a different matter altogether.

These “norms” were both mutual and mediated but as is with many things in the establishment the playbook is rarely updated unless its thrown back at their faces with torn pages ala Kargil or otherwise. Even then they’re trying to tape things back.

Then, there is the actual situation of fuel and finances which go well beyond the current crisis to tempoed ops in FATA, Bstan and other areas.

So it was a case of “will it last? What if we need it for later? What if we show it and they learn? What if they use it to do X?”

India showed some of its additional cards and that was concerning - especially with regards to certain mobilization.

It all comes down then to your OODA loop and the choice of “A decision is better than no decision” or “Paralysis by analysis”

 

[Great Mal]

As far as Babur is concerned, we have repeatedly said that it has a nuclear role - so I do understand the reluctance to use Baburs. Furthermore, I am sure that Baburs are quite expensive.

However, I did not see massive LM strikes on India. Either we haven't built those stockpiles yet or didn't want to use them. Even F1 F2 are expensive systems that should form the tip of the spear not the entire spear.

We don't have proper conventional munition piled up, yes, Babur & Raad are excellent systems both being subsonic with a long reach but they are likely expensive & reserved for when shit hits the fan.

Besides Babur & Raad what else do we have? I cant think of anything else. Pakistan learnt a hard lesson we either rework Chinese missiles (supersonic) into proper air launched & ground launched platforms with multi mission seekers for conventional role.

Or we rework SMASH into ground attack launched by Air & ground platforms, but we need to extend the reach 500km should be minimum range for any future missiles.

Pakistan needs to build munitions on the lines of Iran, they have both a conventional Ballistic missile inventory & cruise missile inventory.