Pentagon official: The Kingdom of
#Saudi Arabia possesses two factories for manufacturing ballistic and strategic missiles with a warhead weighing up to three tons and a range of up to 2200 km.
- The missile factory was revealed by CNN in 2022
- The factory was acquired from China and
#Saudi experts were trained to acquire the necessary expertise and knowledge.
I don't think that they or any outsiders for that matter have any real clues about the scale and scope of the Saudi Arabian ballistic missile program and all the many known and unknown (publicly at least) facilities.
Even most of the local individuals involved (outside of the top, top military, intelligence and government leadership), either directly or indirectly with this sector, are only privy to their own select work in this program and facilities - never all of it. This is done deliberately by every country, when dealing with sensitive matters, in order to prevent leaks.
Those claims were the same 35+ years ago and just 10 + years ago. Only a fool would believe that KSA, with all of our resources, knowledge and allies, have not accelerated this and other defense programs considerably in all spheres.
All the amateur OSINT users, foreign as well as locals that you see, are also not privy to anything groundbreaking. They are just looking at satellite imagery, visible changes throughout the years and what little has been made public and from that data making their own wrong or right conclusions.
The reality, outside of those in the know, is that nobody really knows the inner details with any certainty.
Recent events in the region are unlikely to change this.
Lastly even if KSA actively started using ballistic missiles as a offensive weapon in conflict x or y, all the inner workings would never be disclosed.
So we are left with deductions, speculations, rumors etc. until and unless something, other than what is already officially known, emerges.
In any case you don't win any wars or conflicts with missiles. They are a good offensive weapon to have, in particular if you have access to nuclear weapons, but 100-200 F-35 can do more than 100.000 ballistic missiles as well as carry more payload as well as having a much longer lifespan.
KSA's ballistic missiles, if not nuclear-tipped or at least designed to deliver toxic agents, are not going to win you any wars against serious adversaries on their own. We saw that even small GCC states, even if impacted by a lot of ballistic missiles (granted most where shot down) did not suffer anything remotely existential. Same thing has been seen in Ukraine where Russia has been pounding Ukraine on a daily/weekly basis with far more deadlier ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Russia being one of te main missiles powers on the planet If not the foremost - at least in terms of sheer numbers, claimed reach and payload.
The reality is that today, in order to truly defeat your adversary, you need boots on the ground.
This has become more difficult than ever with the rise of AI, drones etc. The battlefield is very different than just 20 years ago.
If you are a country of a sufficient size, with somewhat favorable geography, your regime/country is not going to collapse due to a few bombardments.
Otherwise the Russians, having daily/weekly attacked Ukraine with 100's of drones and ballistic missiles (at times in the 1000's), would have long ago conquered Kiev let alone rest of Ukraine. Instead they are barely making any progress and the progress they are making is due to "meat grinder" tactics (boots on the ground) with enormous casualties as a consequence.
War today requires a very different approach across the board.
I see the need for a multifaceted approach, highly dynamic and flexible with various command centers that are able to do their work jointly or alone. Across all branches of the army. All connected with a nation's key industrial sectors.
In short, war has become more difficult for everyone involved. If you are an average ground trooper, against a somewhat capable adversary, especially if you are the attacking party, you are more exposed and vulnerable than ever, even if the average soldier now is better equipped than ever before.
AI and automatization will just increase the challenges in the future.
I would not be surprised if most of the fighting, in the not too distant future, will be done by AI agents and non-humans. With humans, when necessary, just keeping oversight and making adjustments.
