The experts of the AUTOSTAT agency have announced a forecast for sales of new passenger cars in 2024. They have little doubt that the Russian car market this year will be higher than last year\'s results (1.06 million vehicles). Nevertheless, in the pessimistic scenario of development, the...
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AUTOSTAT agency reported how many cars will be sold in 2024
The experts of the AUTOSTAT agency have announced a forecast for sales of new passenger cars in 2024. They have little doubt that the Russian car market this year will be higher than last year's results (1.06 million vehicles). Nevertheless, in the pessimistic scenario of development, the agency experts still envisage a market volume of 1 million cars (-6% by 2023). In the basic version, the forecast of the AUTOSTAT agency implies a market growth of 18% to 1.25 million new cars sold in 2024. And the optimistic scenario assumes a figure of 1.4 million vehicles (+32%), but experts do not exclude higher results.
Thus, Sergey Tselikov, Director of the AUTOSTAT agency, considers himself among the super optimists, believing that the market may reach 1.5 million cars (and this is the level of the pre-crisis year 2021). And he backed up his forecast with very strong arguments. Firstly, in 2023, the total volume of imported and manufactured passenger cars totaled more than 1.2 million vehicles. This will lead to quite powerful price wars, especially at the beginning of the year.
And there will be a lot of interesting offers for the consumer, Tselikov believes: "Already now we see how one brand has started to cut prices, while another is offering discounts. I think this trend will be the leitmotif at the beginning of 2024. The second thing is that for the last few years there has been quite a lot of pent-up demand in the car market. Given our car fleet, we actually need to change, renewing the fleet, about 1.8 million cars, but all these years the market has been lower. People actually lengthened the period of ownership, continued to drive on what they had, or switched to second-hand cars. However, there are fewer and fewer relatively “fresh” cars on the "secondary market" and sooner or later we will have to choose something...".
Today there are Russian and Chinese cars to choose from, and a small percentage of other cars imported in parallel. And among Chinese models today one can already find those that are no worse than Korean or even Japanese ones. "Again, cars tend to break down," says Tselikov, "and the maintenance of Mercedes and Land Rovers will cost people quite a lot of money, and they will start to actively explore Chinese models." Besides, in 2023 Russia has finally decided on the enterprises of its car industry - to whom and what goes.
Therefore, 2024, apparently, will be the year of restarting assembly plants that are still idle - they may assemble Chinese cars, but there may be others with changed brand names.