Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

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Nuffle said:
Cavoli definitely didn't look at the effort Russia's allies can make to sustain the Russians in the post-2027 war. All he did was make an analysis considering Russian stockpiles and the rate of Russian production. You can read what he said here:

Furthermore, WOTR completely disagrees with you:

warontherocks.com

Russia Can Afford to Take a Beating in Ukraine

Russian forces in Ukraine are suffering casualties at more than 400,000 per year — enough to pack the house at the world’s four largest stadiums. Losses
warontherocks.com warontherocks.com
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Those aren’t new production models, those are refurbished Soviet era tanks and armor in those figures. Again, Russian new production doesn’t come anywhere close to their loss rate.

Russian deep storage is approaching critical levels if this war continues into 2026/27. That’s a fact, and supported by satellite evidence.

It’s time to face reality. Russia has lost this war. Their strategic objectives in February 2022 have been defeated. They’ve been reduced to fighting for fields and small towns that no one outside of Ukraine had ever heard of prior to this war. They’ve been doing this now for the last couple years, and losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers and thousands of pieces of equipment in the process.

And for what? So Putin can save face and justify his evil war to his population. Only fools believe he conducted this war for the Donetsk Oblast. As I said a year ago, whether Russia captures the Donbass or not, it doesn’t change the strategic outcomes of this war.

A couple thousand Russian soldiers are dead or wounded every week trying to take some field outside Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka. Thats what this war has been reduced to for the Russians.

If this was the US military I’d be humiliated. There’s no more justification for this war, but Russia is ruled by a dictator with evil ambitions, who is advised by yes men who give him rosy reports on how great Russian forces are performing and if they only fight for another 6 months they’ll achieve a grand strategic breakthrough.

It’s time for Russia to pack it up and go home, admit they’re humiliating loss, and begin the reparation and reconstruction process of Ukraine.
 
F-22Raptor said:
Those aren’t new production models, those are refurbished Soviet era tanks and armor in those figures. Again, Russian new production doesn’t come anywhere close to their loss rate.

Russian deep storage is approaching critical levels if this war continues into 2026/27. That’s a fact, and supported by satellite evidence.

It’s time to face reality. Russia has lost this war. Their strategic objectives in February 2022 have been defeated. They’ve been reduced to fighting for fields and small towns that no one outside of Ukraine had ever heard of prior to this war. They’ve been doing this now for the last couple years, and losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers and thousands of pieces of equipment in the process.

And for what? So Putin can save face and justify his evil war to his population. Only fools believe he conducted this war for the Donetsk Oblast. As I said a year ago, whether Russia captures the Donbass or not, it doesn’t change the strategic outcomes of this war.

A couple thousand Russian soldiers are dead or wounded every week trying to take some field outside Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka. Thats what this war has been reduced to for the Russians.

If this was the US military I’d be humiliated. There’s no more justification for this war, but Russia is ruled by a dictator with evil ambitions, who is advised by yes men who give him rosy reports on how great Russian forces are performing and if they only fight for another 6 months they’ll achieve a grand strategic breakthrough.

It’s time for Russia to pack it up and go home, admit they’re humiliating loss, and begin the reparation and reconstruction process of Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Russia’s goal was clearly to put in a pro-Russian president, British intelligence put forward some names that were possible candidates after the coup attempt in February 2022 and the initial show of force, but since then, Russian goals have clearly changed. It is quite clear that the Russian goal now is to continue the attrition to eliminate the Ukrainian threat as a permanent objective of the Russian leadership, Ukraine has always been a red line for the Kremlin and now they will stop at nothing to achieve this goal, even if the Russians sacrifice their army. If it is a strategic loss to achieve this goal, they will do it, regardless of any other repercussions. There is nothing that will stop them now and they have the human, industrial and military resources to achieve this.

I think the one who needs to face reality is you. Even Zaluzhnyi is aware of this reality. The Russians are not going anywhere and the Ukrainians will not be able to regain any piece of land unless there is a total Russian military collapse in Ukraine, which is likely, because the Russians are getting stronger and the Ukrainians are getting weaker. Even brigade commanders are resigning and criticizing the Ukrainian military leadership, there is nothing to indicate an imminent Russian collapse, so the war may last another two years and Ukraine's chances are slim, if not impossible.
 
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Nuffle said:
Russia’s goal was clearly to put in a pro-Russian president, British intelligence put forward some names that were possible candidates after the coup attempt in February 2022 and the initial show of force, but since then, Russian goals have clearly changed. It is quite clear that the Russian goal now is to continue the attrition to eliminate the Ukrainian threat as a permanent objective of the Russian leadership, Ukraine has always been a red line for the Kremlin and now they will stop at nothing to achieve this goal, even if the Russians sacrifice their army. If it is a strategic loss to achieve this goal, they will do it, regardless of any other repercussions. There is nothing that will stop them now and they have the human, industrial and military resources to achieve this.

I think the one who needs to face reality is you. Even Zaluzhnyi is aware of this reality. The Russians are not going anywhere and the Ukrainians will not be able to regain any piece of land unless there is a total Russian military collapse in Ukraine, which is likely, because the Russians are getting stronger and the Ukrainians are getting weaker. Even brigade commanders are resigning and criticizing the Ukrainian military leadership, there is nothing to indicate an imminent Russian collapse, so the war may last another two years and Ukraine's chances are slim, if not impossible.
Click to expand...

Yes, Russias goals changed because they were defeated not because they had a change of heart. I’m happy to see you admit the Russians have been strategically defeated, that’s progress.

Ukraine is now an economic and security partner with the West. They are vehemently anti Russian and will be for generations. NATO has expanded. A Russian red line? That red line was crushed, and now they’re wasting vast amounts of manpower and equipment trying to take fields in the Donestsk Oblast. The joke is on you.

As for a war of attrition, Russia clearly has the manpower advantage, as for military resources, that’s being depleted and the satellite evidence supports that.

Ukraine has a very strong defense and there’s no evidence Ukraines lines will collapse. Russia certainly isn’t getting stronger.



Trump softens on Putin as Russia’s military edge weakens, officials say​


“Russia is not able to take any ground, and this is the situation pretty much since the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive” in 2023, the Ukrainian official said. “Despite the fact that they still have three-to-one superiority in number of troops — and maybe even bigger in terms of [weapons] systems — it’s still not enough.”

While capable of producing at least 200 new tanks a year, Russia has depended heavily on the refurbishment of mothballed Soviet-era ones, an estimated 13,000-tank stockpile at the beginning of the war that Western experts calculate is likely to run out in the next few months.

“The Russians can continue fighting, but … the force will become more and more de-mechanized over time, and that does put a timeline on how long they can sustain the current way they operate,” Watling said.
If no ceasefire is arranged, Russia is likely to use its narrowing window of superiority to intensify attacks over the summer in a bid to break through Ukraine’s exhausted ranks, Watling and Barrons said. But it could be Moscow’s last opportunity.

“Russia is actually culminating in its ability to conduct an offensive,” Barrons said. “It is very unlikely now that the Russian military have the equipment, the people, and the training and logistics to mount an offensive that would break the Ukrainian line and — even if they did — to exploit it immediately.”

Even if Russia succeeded in gaining more Ukrainian territory, the Kremlin is unlikely to achieve its stated goal of seizing full control of the four regions it illegally annexed in the fall of 2022 — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — according to Dara Massicot, senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“There’s a difference between pushing the Ukrainians back five to 10 kilometers at a time at high cost versus having the assembled manpower and armor behind that to exploit a breakthrough and to occupy and push through all of those obstacles, even though the Ukrainians are having issues,” Massicot said. “That’s still a really large bill in terms of equipment that they need, and I just don’t see that concentration anywhere.”

 
Footage of a mid-air collision between two Ukrainian, presumably An-196 "Lyuty" drones. The video was filmed in the Lipetsk region of Russia. The "Lyuty" kamikaze drones were developed by the Ukrainian company Ukroboronprom in 2023, we previously wrote about them. The supposed reasons for the collision of the drones are incorrect routing to the target, or automatic maneuvering upon detection of air defense system radiation, which led to the collision.

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F-22Raptor said:
Yes, Russias goals changed because they were defeated not because they had a change of heart. I’m happy to see you admit the Russians have been strategically defeated, that’s progress.

Ukraine is now an economic and security partner with the West. They are vehemently anti Russian and will be for generations. NATO has expanded. A Russian red line? That red line was crushed, and now they’re wasting vast amounts of manpower and equipment trying to take fields in the Donestsk Oblast. The joke is on you.

As for a war of attrition, Russia clearly has the manpower advantage, as for military resources, that’s being depleted and the satellite evidence supports that.

Ukraine has a very strong defense and there’s no evidence Ukraines lines will collapse. Russia certainly isn’t getting stronger.



Trump softens on Putin as Russia’s military edge weakens, officials say​


“Russia is not able to take any ground, and this is the situation pretty much since the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive” in 2023, the Ukrainian official said. “Despite the fact that they still have three-to-one superiority in number of troops — and maybe even bigger in terms of [weapons] systems — it’s still not enough.”

While capable of producing at least 200 new tanks a year, Russia has depended heavily on the refurbishment of mothballed Soviet-era ones, an estimated 13,000-tank stockpile at the beginning of the war that Western experts calculate is likely to run out in the next few months.

“The Russians can continue fighting, but … the force will become more and more de-mechanized over time, and that does put a timeline on how long they can sustain the current way they operate,” Watling said.
If no ceasefire is arranged, Russia is likely to use its narrowing window of superiority to intensify attacks over the summer in a bid to break through Ukraine’s exhausted ranks, Watling and Barrons said. But it could be Moscow’s last opportunity.

“Russia is actually culminating in its ability to conduct an offensive,” Barrons said. “It is very unlikely now that the Russian military have the equipment, the people, and the training and logistics to mount an offensive that would break the Ukrainian line and — even if they did — to exploit it immediately.”

Even if Russia succeeded in gaining more Ukrainian territory, the Kremlin is unlikely to achieve its stated goal of seizing full control of the four regions it illegally annexed in the fall of 2022 — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — according to Dara Massicot, senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“There’s a difference between pushing the Ukrainians back five to 10 kilometers at a time at high cost versus having the assembled manpower and armor behind that to exploit a breakthrough and to occupy and push through all of those obstacles, even though the Ukrainians are having issues,” Massicot said. “That’s still a really large bill in terms of equipment that they need, and I just don’t see that concentration anywhere.”

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Dude, you were talking to some one who last year said Ukrainian line will collapse once Russia roll over Pokrovsk, and then the entire Ukrainian line would collapse.

It's pointless to talk about a "Russian Victory" even if Russia manage to take the entire Donbas region, at this rate, the casualty and the strategic implication would make it anything but. And if I were to command a platoon and assault a hill as a part of an operation, I took the hill but suffer 50% casualty, I didn't win that battle even if I took that hill.

The point for a complete Russian victory is over 1 and a half years ago, at best Russia now is looking at Insurgency on their occupied territories, at worse this will keep happening IN RUSSIA

www.wam.ae

WAM

www.wam.ae www.wam.ae


and that's aren't pretty.
 
Ali_Baba said:
Pakistan needs an equivalent of this platform to help buzz New Delhi !!
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Modern day Stuka sound?

Btw, I agree that if a war kicks off again, New Delhi (including Noida where Godi media sit) needs to hear the sound of their warmongering.

Btw, here are the cartoons used as part of Russian soldiers training for the war in Ukraine.

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Ali_Baba said:
Pakistan needs an equivalent of this platform to help buzz New Delhi !!
Click to expand...
Honestly speaking it was disappointing that we did not fire something like Shahid-136 in response to the Indian harpys . All that we fired was the pipe drone Yiha-III , which was flying like a kite, so slow. We need something like shahid-136 in large numbers, next round is not that far. I hope the tops brass realize this sooner than later.
 
j_hungary said:
Dude, you were talking to some one who last year said Ukrainian line will collapse once Russia roll over Pokrovsk, and then the entire Ukrainian line would collapse.

It's pointless to talk about a "Russian Victory" even if Russia manage to take the entire Donbas region, at this rate, the casualty and the strategic implication would make it anything but. And if I were to command a platoon and assault a hill as a part of an operation, I took the hill but suffer 50% casualty, I didn't win that battle even if I took that hill.
Click to expand...
Look who's back, the American fortune teller who only makes wrong predictions.

I challenge you to find a comment of mine saying that if Russia took Pokrovsk, Ukraine would collapse. In fact, I said the exact opposite of that almost two months ago:
Nuffle

Post in thread 'Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates'

F-22Raptor said:
Gen Cavoli also stated Ukraine is unlikely to collapse, they hold strong defensive positions today, and their ability to generate forces and reinforce those positions are improving weekly.
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Ukraine will not collapse in the short term, because the Russians are still unable to suppress the Ukrainian Recon Fire Complex. The only thing that is keeping Ukraine standing is this, otherwise they would have collapsed already.
 
F-22Raptor said:
Yes, Russias goals changed because they were defeated not because they had a change of heart. I’m happy to see you admit the Russians have been strategically defeated, that’s progress.

Ukraine is now an economic and security partner with the West. They are vehemently anti Russian and will be for generations. NATO has expanded. A Russian red line? That red line was crushed, and now they’re wasting vast amounts of manpower and equipment trying to take fields in the Donestsk Oblast. The joke is on you.

As for a war of attrition, Russia clearly has the manpower advantage, as for military resources, that’s being depleted and the satellite evidence supports that.

Ukraine has a very strong defense and there’s no evidence Ukraines lines will collapse. Russia certainly isn’t getting stronger.
Click to expand...
Russia has suffered setbacks, it has not been defeated. And its objectives change as the situation changes. I admit that the Russians have suffered defeats, because unlike you and others here, even though I hope the war continues, after all, the longer Europe continues this war the better for Brazil, I am not a denier or propagandist.

Ukraine is already gone. Its infrastructure is destroyed. Millions have taken refuge. Millions have died, or are injured or have had their limbs amputated or are on the verge of being one of the three. The economy is destroyed. Demographics are collapsing.

Ukraine will never again be a threat to Russia, regardless of whoever wants it, but I believe that Europe, like the US, is comfortable seeing the Ukrainians fight against the Russians, after all, no American or European blood is being paid for in this war.

At this rate, all that will be left are women and children.

And Russia can take this much longer than Ukraine can. Unless NATO enters the war, Ukraine has already lost this war, even if Russia has already lost strategically, but Ukraine is finished as a country and a state. To deny this is to deny reality.
 
j_hungary said:
Dude, you were talking to some one who last year said Ukrainian line will collapse once Russia roll over Pokrovsk, and then the entire Ukrainian line would collapse.

It's pointless to talk about a "Russian Victory" even if Russia manage to take the entire Donbas region, at this rate, the casualty and the strategic implication would make it anything but. And if I were to command a platoon and assault a hill as a part of an operation, I took the hill but suffer 50% casualty, I didn't win that battle even if I took that hill.

The point for a complete Russian victory is over 1 and a half years ago, at best Russia now is looking at Insurgency on their occupied territories, at worse this will keep happening IN RUSSIA

www.wam.ae

WAM

www.wam.ae www.wam.ae


and that's aren't pretty.
Click to expand...

Exactly, and I’ve been saying for the last year whether Russia takes the Donbass or not it doesn’t change the strategic outcomes of the war.

The fact people here still insist this war was over the Donbass minerals is absolutely hilarious. It’s cope lord levels of cope.

Russia has long since lost this war. For gods sake, Russia is fighting for the last year in the fields of Pokrovsk with 100K+ dead and wounded this year alone. It’s insanity, but Putin has this obsession with murdering and subjugating Ukrainians. I think deep down Putin knows he can no longer justify the war which is why he throws so many bodies at the front in hope of a breakthrough. And I have no doubt his military hierarchy are feeding him false reports about how great things are going.
 
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Shaheds continue to wreak havoc across Ukraine
 
On Saturday, former CIA official Ray McGovern said the recent contact between Putin and Trump makes it clear that regardless of when and where negotiations between Moscow and Kiev continue, the conflict will end on Russia's terms, and the head of state made that abundantly clear to the White House host.
So I wonder how the powerful news went unnoticed that on Friday Donnie kicked out (within 30 minutes) 100 “staffers” at the National Security Council, the very people who are supposed to process and give real data to the President of the United States. The entire Russian section there was kicked out. Right, why? And because as long as the U.S. President believed in fairy tales about the Russian Army's hundred hundred and fifty million 200s and other propaganda from 404, he could be manipulated. But Sam explained to him that American generals are only good at bullshit and don't know the real war at all. It's called, “Get Private Trump out of the fog, and out of himself”.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
 
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