Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

[KingQamaR]

What we’re headed for post settlement is a North/South Korea type scenario where the vast majority of Ukraine and government are aligned with the West and NATO forces are in Ukraine by the tens of thousands.

Thats a massive victory for the US/Ukraine and huge defeat for Russia. Even with the loss of some territory, Ukraine still comes out strategically ahead.

This is basically the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war but eastern European version. The Russians defense 3 trenches lines were in depth is the key to Russian victory like it was for the (Iraqis), if the Ukrainians are unable to overcome these trench's which they have not they will experience what the Iranians did in 1988, and then Russian forces go on the offense and take more land before Ukraine submits to a ceasefire, It will take some time to get there, but the precedent is there.

 

[F-22Raptor]

that's just not true ... Russia gained more territory in 48 hours (100sqkm) than Ukraine did in its entire 2023 counteroffensive.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Ukraine gained more territory during its offensive last year than Russia has gained from November-April.

It’s not as obvious because it was spread along the entire front instead of focused on a single area like Avdiivka.

 

[Harbyharb]

Russias rate of loss is at the point where in 18-24 months they will no longer have the stockpiles necessary to replace those losses. Russian new production is nowhere near high enough to replace its armor losses. Its artillery pieces have also been heavily depleted. At least 50%. Of its prewar towed and SPG howitzers have been pulled from storage.

The first half of that statement is partially true, but that is assuming that the rate of loss for armoured vehicles will stay persistent, whereby early 2026 Russia should start to run out of T-72B3s and T-80BVMs. That is very obviously changing though - the advent of those turtle tanks, or rather "blyatmobiles" as they are referred to from both sides that blatantly sacrifice vision for all-round cope cages and mine rollers is explained by the Russian frontline troops noticing a stark drop in usage of AT weapons by Ukrainian units, entirely shifting to FPV drones. This is consistent with Ukrainian reports where expendable conscript units are not trained to operate shoulder rockets and heavily rely on their parent units to provide anti-armour support. The use of "blyatmobiles", and the dynamics it revealed, have already started showing its impact. Besides, even with little to no armour support, it has never stopped Ukrainian units from hard-heading their way into counter-offensives with light vehicles like Bradleys and M113s, and even wheeled vehicles ranging from MRAPs to civilian pick-ups.

The latter half of pre-war towed SPGs being pulled from storage is not proof of Russian artillery attrition, as Ukrainian counter-battery ability has been very notably absent since last year's counteroffensive. This act of pulling storage pieces, primarily D-30 pieces as they are the most numerous and in generally good condition, is a result of Russia reviving its group army reserve artillery units and restarting the usage of 122mm howitzers, which is a niche that's very notably missing in the pre-war BTG template, where the logistical strain and lack of raw weight delivery rate caused by reliance on 152mm shells have been heavily criticized.

 

[F-22Raptor]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Persian Gulf]

Ukraine gained more territory during its offensive last year than Russia has gained from November-April.

that is no longer the case if you include May

 

[F-22Raptor]

The first half of that statement is partially true, but that is assuming that the rate of loss for armoured vehicles will stay persistent, whereby early 2026 Russia should start to run out of T-72B3s and T-80BVMs. That is very obviously changing though - the advent of those turtle tanks, or rather "blyatmobiles" as they are referred to from both sides that blatantly sacrifice vision for all-round cope cages and mine rollers is explained by the Russian frontline troops noticing a stark drop in usage of AT weapons by Ukrainian units, entirely shifting to FPV drones. This is consistent with Ukrainian reports where expendable conscript units are not trained to operate shoulder rockets and heavily rely on their parent units to provide anti-armour support. The use of "blyatmobiles", and the dynamics it revealed, have already started showing its impact. Besides, even with little to no armour support, it has never stopped Ukrainian units from hard-heading their way into counter-offensives with light vehicles like Bradleys and M113s, and even wheeled vehicles ranging from MRAPs to civilian pick-ups.

The latter half of pre-war towed SPGs being pulled from storage is not proof of Russian artillery attrition, as Ukrainian counter-battery ability has been very notably absent since last year's counteroffensive. This act of pulling storage pieces, primarily D-30 pieces as they are the most numerous and in generally good condition, is a result of Russia reviving its group army reserve artillery units and restarting the usage of 122mm howitzers, which is a niche that's very notably missing in the pre-war BTG template, where the logistical strain and lack of raw weight delivery rate caused by reliance on 152mm shells have been heavily criticized.

Those rust buckets have only been seen in small numbers and are not indicative of a larger trend. Of course Ukraine will have to maintain the rate of attrition, but Russias armor force is absolutely headed for extinction if loss rates persist. Already this year, Russia has lost 550+ tanks and 1,200+ IFVs.


Artillery attrition is harder to analyze due to their distance from the frontline, but OSINTers have done some excellent analysis. High Marsed has done some great work on Russian artillery and their storage numbers. I suggest to read through his threads.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[Harbyharb]

Those rust buckets have only been seen in small numbers and are not indicative of a larger trend. Of course Ukraine will have to maintain the rate of attrition, but Russias armor force is absolutely headed for extinction if loss rates persist. Already this year, Russia has lost 550+ tanks and 1,200+ IFVs.


Artillery attrition is harder to analyze due to their distance from the frontline, but OSINTers have done some excellent analysis. High Marsed has done some great work on Russian artillery and their storage numbers. I suggest to read through his threads.

What I'm claiming is, that Ukraine is losing AT and front-line support capabilities, while Russian forces have continued to improvise. Aside from blyatmobiles, lately, in the Avdivvka front and Kharkiv, Russian forces have instead resorted to storming positions with BTRs and even ATVs, which resulted in success despite the retaliating Ukrainian mortar fire. If an army is running low on tanks and IFVs, they will figure out how to manage without, go figure.

My analysis does take into account OSINTers counting for Russian storage. What I'm saying is, that while there's less artillery in storage, it's not due to them being destroyed on the frontlines, but more artillery pieces are being used. Keep in mind that before the start of the SMO, the Russian army planned to entirely replace all howitzer artillery pieces with Msta-S, Msta-B, and Giasint-B, especially replacing all 122mm howitzer pieces with 120mm gun mortar systems, such as 2S31 and 2S34. The retirement of old artillery pieces and the slow rate of production of new systems have created a very notable gap in the Russian army's multi-tiered fire support systems, with its effect very keenly felt by many frontline units, especially during the first year into the SMO. Now with both industry and manpower undergoing mobilization, this diminishing storage is a testament to how more Russian units are being mobilized and existing units stand to be better armed.

 

[F-22Raptor]

What I'm claiming is, that Ukraine is losing AT and front-line support capabilities, while Russian forces have continued to improvise. Aside from blyatmobiles, lately, in the Avdivvka front and Kharkiv, Russian forces have instead resorted to storming positions with BTRs and even ATVs, which resulted in success despite the retaliating Ukrainian mortar fire. If an army is running low on tanks and IFVs, they will figure out how to manage without, go figure.

My analysis does take into account OSINTers counting for Russian storage. What I'm saying is, that while there's less artillery in storage, it's not due to them being destroyed on the frontlines, but more artillery pieces are being used. Keep in mind that before the start of the SMO, the Russian army planned to entirely replace all howitzer artillery pieces with Msta-S, Msta-B, and Giasint-B, especially replacing all 122mm howitzer pieces with 120mm gun mortar systems, such as 2S31 and 2S34. The retirement of old artillery pieces and the slow rate of production of new systems have created a very notable gap in the Russian army's multi-tiered fire support systems, with its effect very keenly felt by many frontline units, especially during the first year into the SMO. Now with both industry and manpower undergoing mobilization, this diminishing storage is a testament to how more Russian units are being mobilized and existing units stand to be better armed.

No, they aren’t losing AT capabilities. In fact, the US is sending new supplies of Javelin, TOW, and AT-4 anti armor systems in the latest packages. Russias use of golf carts and motorcycles have had almost no effect. They’ve tried that over and over in Robotyne. They continue to get destroyed.

Your artillery analysis is pure guesswork. You have no real insight into Russian artillery attrition rate. And a lot of Russian towed pieces are being cannibalized for their barrels. Under your assumption, pulled howitzers from storage will actually decline. I think your living in fantasy world, and updated satellite footage of those bases will tell the tale in the next 6-12 months.

 

[Harbyharb]

No, they aren’t losing AT capabilities. In fact, the US is sending new supplies of Javelin, TOW, and AT-4 anti armor systems in the latest packages. Russias use of golf carts and motorcycles have had almost no effect. They’ve tried that over and over in Robotyne. They continue to get destroyed.

Your artillery analysis is pure guesswork. You have no real insight into Russian artillery attrition rate. And a lot of Russian towed pieces are being cannibalized for their barrels. Under your assumption, pulled howitzers from storage will actually decline. I think your living in fantasy world, and updated satellite footage of those bases will tell the tale in the next 6-12 months.

I don't deny that Russian forces have achieved little gains in Robotyne specifically, but I would criticize your heedless understatement in the potential of "golf carts" and "motorcycles". As it has been proven over and over again in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria, and now in Ukraine...

...in a relatively stagnant front, conducting limited offensives around ridgelines and road networks, ATVs are completely valid platforms for harassment, transportation, and even assault. Especially if you are trying to reduce the usage and dependence on armoured vehicles, and their smaller frontline footprint and greater off-road speed (especially compared to soviet-russian tanks with relatively low off-road mobility) can better allow an assault force to exploit moments of weakness (i.e enemy units rotating in and out of a trench line).

My "guesswork" is based on a combination of Western publications such as RUSI and Dr Lester W. Grau, as well as an official Russian statement regarding the details around their "partial mobilization" circa 2022, which includes the reconstruction of group army artillery arm structure and reserve artillery corp. And yes, we certainly will see in 6-12 months. Whereas 2023 is certainly a turning point in the initiative and power balance, 2024 and 2025 will see said shift being more clearly reflected in the front lines.

 

[Harbyharb]

No, they aren’t losing AT capabilities. In fact, the US is sending new supplies of Javelin, TOW, and AT-4 anti armor systems in the latest packages. Russias use of golf carts and motorcycles have had almost no effect. They’ve tried that over and over in Robotyne. They continue to get destroyed.

Your artillery analysis is pure guesswork. You have no real insight into Russian artillery attrition rate. And a lot of Russian towed pieces are being cannibalized for their barrels. Under your assumption, pulled howitzers from storage will actually decline. I think your living in fantasy world, and updated satellite footage of those bases will tell the tale in the next 6-12 months.

Oh, and I forgot to add
View attachment 1715530061153.png
There are things that we have a virtually bottomless reserve of that could be sent to Ukraine. Unfortunately, AT systems, especially Javelin, are not among them.

But hey, at least they are not running out of M113s and 105mm yeet pipes anytime soon.

 

[Viet]

A kick in Putin’s face

Ukraine moving the celebration of the end of WW2 from May 9 to May 8, the day when the Deutsche Wehrmacht signed off the unconditional surrender. With the step Ukraine will be further allied with the western military powers.

Aktuelle Videos

Das Beste aus tagesschau, tagesthemen und tagesschau24

www.tagesschau.de

 

[Viet]

Great idea but extremely dangerous trick
Copied from Vietnam war

Ukrainian Aviation Adopts Vietnam-Era Tactics Against Russian Air Defenses

Ukrainian pilots are reportedly using so-called “wild weasel” tactics to entice Russian air defense radars to switch on before hitting them with Western-supplied anti-radar missiles.

www.kyivpost.com

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

 

[F-22Raptor]

I don't deny that Russian forces have achieved little gains in Robotyne specifically, but I would criticize your heedless understatement in the potential of "golf carts" and "motorcycles". As it has been proven over and over again in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria, and now in Ukraine...
View attachment 39894View attachment 39895View attachment 39898
...in a relatively stagnant front, conducting limited offensives around ridgelines and road networks, ATVs are completely valid platforms for harassment, transportation, and even assault. Especially if you are trying to reduce the usage and dependence on armoured vehicles, and their smaller frontline footprint and greater off-road speed (especially compared to soviet-russian tanks with relatively low off-road mobility) can better allow an assault force to exploit moments of weakness (i.e enemy units rotating in and out of a trench line).

My "guesswork" is based on a combination of Western publications such as RUSI and Dr Lester W. Grau, as well as an official Russian statement regarding the details around their "partial mobilization" circa 2022, which includes the reconstruction of group army artillery arm structure and reserve artillery corp. And yes, we certainly will see in 6-12 months. Whereas 2023 is certainly a turning point in the initiative and power balance, 2024 and 2025 will see said shift being more clearly reflected in the front lines.

No, you’re vastly overstating those ATVs. The Russians use them out of necessity, not because of their effectiveness.

A yes, your estimate that Russian artillery aren’t being attrited is almost certainly wrong, as updated satellite imagery will prove in the medium term. You don’t pull 9,000 pieces of artillery from storage if you aren’t being attrited, that includes cannibilization.

 

[TopGun786]

Y

Thankyou for this - i 10000% agree with what you have said - they are my sentiments perfectly expressed and reflect my change of position from the start of the Ukraine war - to what it is now. You timeline is reflective of the change in my views and the underlying logic for the change in my views based on what I have seen in occupried Palestine, and the support by the cheerleaders of Genocide which are the USA/UK/Germany/France.

I suspect quite a few people have changed their views on the same basis - i dont think i am lone on this forum with this change.

You are right. I also have seen quite a few members here which changed their views after knowing how USA and west have so many faces and double standards.
About Russia I must say, personally, I do not believe Russia is our "friend" or "ally". I said these words many times before and I am repeating again.
Russia has her own dark history. Russia's (especially USSR) hands are also coloured with blood of myslims and other minorities in past. Russia is the biggest ally and arms provider to our biggest enemy, India. That's why I myself never "cheer" for Russia when they make any achievement or gain or harm NATO. However I appreciate and like the fact when they do so.
An enemy's enemy is a friend. Russia is our "helper" now. She is doing our work and causing great harm to USA and especially European allies. Russia must win to end the rule of NATO and unipolar world. Even if Russia loses west will not be able to wage any new wars in Muslim lands any sooner.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Oh, and I forgot to add
View attachment 39903
There are things that we have a virtually bottomless reserve of that could be sent to Ukraine. Unfortunately, AT systems, especially Javelin, are not among them.

But hey, at least they are not running out of M113s and 105mm yeet pipes anytime soon.

AT systems have been a consistent item included in nearly every Ukraine package.

Max Javelin production rate for 2025 is 2,100 missiles/year. Max rate for TOWs is 24,000/year.

AT systems aren’t an issue, biggest issue was expansion of artillery production as that’s the biggest killer on the battlefield. Thats now at 36,000/month for 155mm. That will expand to 57,000/month in September and 70,000/month in December. With the supplemental funds, that expands to 102,000/month in September ‘25.

By the end of 2025, US and Europe combined will be producing over 3M 155mm shells per year.