Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

[j_hungary]

Russia is a storehouse of mineral and agricultural products They can sell those to the world market So they should have no problem with funding the war. China is next door and a consumer of everything Their economy is complementary like Canada and US. All they need is to build infrastructure connecting the 2 countries which they are doing now. With China's BRI initiative. and Siberia II China needs to prepare for the day when the West blockades the Malacca Straits.

Unlike the West Russia still values traditional family values and children are a big part of it. The Russian demographic is healthy. Russian casualties are exaggerated but the Uki. The Russians are not gang press to join the army they are volunteer and they have no problem with recruitment They can easily raise a million army with no problem. Russia lost 22 million people in a great patriotic war but they still manage!

You need to know 2 things about Russian mineral.

1.) Most of them are low grade, you need to pump money to refine it, for example, Russia don't export smooth iron ore at all, while Australian Ore can sell up to $140 a ton, Russian ore can only sell for $110 a ton

2.) Mineral Market in Russia is not really that big, roughly 40 billion of their GDP pre-war (Probably half post war with sanction). that is not going to be able to sustain anything. You are talking about a 2 trillion-dollar economy there, even with oil and gas, it's not even cover 20% the GDP. The debt level for Russia is VERY high and the holder is very limited (basically between India and China) means if either or both stop supporting Russia, Russia economy is doomed and nobody in the world will lend Russia money simply because Russian currency worth nothing at the moment. Again, would China be willing to keep pumping money into the dark hole?

And Russian demographic is everything but healthy, again, you are talking about 5 to 7 years shorter on average in median term, that's almost a decade. You are talking about a general decline of roughly $10000-$14000/capita GDP losses in that 5 to 7 year(assuming Russian earn on average $2000 a month), it would have been okay for high earning country like the US or Australia or Switzerland when their GDP/capita is between $50000-$70000, Russian GDP per capita is around $15000 a year, losing that amount over 7 years is going to be detrimental to their economy.

And finally, Russia is NOT the only party that fought in Great Patriotic War, it was fought as a whole of Soviet Union, and you know what, Ukraine loses is similar to Russia even when Ukraine was 1/4 of their population. So no, Russia probably can't take credit on that.

 

[Mobius]

Heeeeeee Hoooooooo, Let's Goooooooo!!!

 

[Mobius]

 

[Mobius]

 

[Mobius]

FORWARDSSSS!!!!

 

[Mobius]

 

[Mobius]

F22/Viet/Solarwarden/GetYaWigSplit.....Time is running out. Quickly go help your chump.

 

[Mobius]

They only getting started.....lol!!!

 

[Viet]

And continuing war is a good deal for Ukraine? well I guess they like destroyed cities and villages. 10 million became refugees, and 600,000 men died. countless children lost their mom and dad?

If Ukraine cedes the territory it can’t survive. it’s better to fight to the death than ending in gulags. At least you reserve the honor.

 

[Persian Gulf]

If Ukraine cedes the territory it can’t survive. it’s better to fight to the death than ending in gulags. At least you reserve the honor.

there are no gulags. treatment of POWs here has been a million times better than how Israel is treating Palestinian POWs for example

when Russia annexes territory it doesn't kick anyone out or send them to torture camps, it invests a lot to rebuild the city

Russia has annexed 3 territories and controls 73% of the total. they are almost there. any negotiated settlement will clearly be based on those territories becoming independent or remaining with Russia. Or Ukraine can fight to the death as you kindly recommend.

 

[Viet]

there are no gulags. treatment of POWs here has been a million times better than how Israel is treating Palestinian POWs for example

when Russia annexes territory it doesn't kick anyone out or send them to torture camps, it invests a lot to rebuild the city

Russia has annexed 3 territories and controls 73% of the total. they are almost there. any negotiated settlement will clearly be based on those territories becoming independent or remaining with Russia. Or Ukraine can fight to the death as you kindly recommend.

No gulags?
Bucha, the massacre on Ukraine population is the reason why Ukraine rejects any peace negotiations with Russia. The Ukraine army will fight the bitter end. They know what they expect when the russians take over.

Hungry Children on a Ukraine street during the famine, 1933.PHOTO: GRANGER COLLECTION

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rule-by-starvation-1507319629

 

[Persian Gulf]

No gulags?
Bucha, the massacre on Ukraine population is the reason why Ukraine rejects any peace negotiations with Russia. The Ukraine army will fight the bitter end. They know what they expect when the russians take over.

killing of 80-100 civilians in disputed circumstances is why they want to sacrifice their entire country and so many more lives? there is no logic there.

the only outcome is a negotiated settlement, better they do it now than sacrifice more lives for nothing to arrive at the same destination.

 

[Viet]

killing of 80-100 civilians in disputed circumstances is why they want to sacrifice their entire country and so many more lives? there is no logic there.

the only outcome is a negotiated settlement, better they do it now than sacrifice more lives for nothing to arrive at the same destination.

The likelihood Ukraine cedes territory in exchange for settlement is 0.
Let’s say Ukraine cedes this and that parts of Ukraine to Russia the war will stop? No. Putin has made clear from the beginning he wants to exterminate Ukraine as state.

 

[Hendarto]

You need to know 2 things about Russian mineral.

1.) Most of them are low grade, you need to pump money to refine it, for example, Russia don't export smooth iron ore at all, while Australian Ore can sell up to $140 a ton, Russian ore can only sell for $110 a ton

2.) Mineral Market in Russia is not really that big, roughly 40 billion of their GDP pre-war (Probably half post war with sanction). that is not going to be able to sustain anything. You are talking about a 2 trillion-dollar economy there, even with oil and gas, it's not even cover 20% the GDP. The debt level for Russia is VERY high and the holder is very limited (basically between India and China) means if either or both stop supporting Russia, Russia economy is doomed and nobody in the world will lend Russia money simply because Russian currency worth nothing at the moment. Again, would China be willing to keep pumping money into the dark hole?

And Russian demographic is everything but healthy, again, you are talking about 5 to 7 years shorter on average in median term, that's almost a decade. You are talking about a general decline of roughly $10000-$14000/capita GDP losses in that 5 to 7 year(assuming Russian earn on average $2000 a month), it would have been okay for high earning country like the US or Australia or Switzerland when their GDP/capita is between $50000-$70000, Russian GDP per capita is around $15000 a year, losing that amount over 7 years is going to be detrimental to their economy.

And finally, Russia is NOT the only party that fought in Great Patriotic War, it was fought as a whole of Soviet Union, and you know what, Ukraine loses is similar to Russia even when Ukraine was 1/4 of their population. So no, Russia probably can't take credit on that.

I don't know what you are talking about here is the statistic of the Russian economy Russian debt is only 15 to 20% of GDP vs 89% of European countries
As of the end of 2023, Russia's debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be 16.9%, which is equivalent to a debt level of $292 billion. This is lower than the average of 32.5% of GDP for Eastern Europe.

Balance of payments, international investment position and external debt of the Russian Federation in the 1st quarter of 2024 | Bank of Russia

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the general government gross debt to GDP ratio in the euro area (EA20) stood at 88.6%, compared with 89.6% at the end of the third quarter of 2023. In the EU, the ratio also decreased from 82.4% to 81.7%.

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2022, the government debt to GDP ratio also decreased in both the euro area (from 90.8% to 88.6%) and the EU (from 83.4% to 81.7%).

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the general government debt was made up of:

• 83.4% debt securities in the euro area and 82.9% in the EU,​
• 13.8% loans in the euro area and 14.4% in the EU and​
• 2.8% currency and deposits in the euro area and 2.7% in the EU.​
• https://www.focus-economics.com/cou... debt in Russia averaged,18.9% of GDP in 2022.

 

[j_hungary]

I don't know what you are talking about here is the statistic of the Russian economy Russian debt is only 15 to 20% of GDP vs 89% of European countries
As of the end of 2023, Russia's debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be 16.9%, which is equivalent to a debt level of $292 billion. This is lower than the average of 32.5% of GDP for Eastern Europe.

Balance of payments, international investment position and external debt of the Russian Federation in the 1st quarter of 2024 | Bank of Russia

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the general government gross debt to GDP ratio in the euro area (EA20) stood at 88.6%, compared with 89.6% at the end of the third quarter of 2023. In the EU, the ratio also decreased from 82.4% to 81.7%.

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2022, the government debt to GDP ratio also decreased in both the euro area (from 90.8% to 88.6%) and the EU (from 83.4% to 81.7%).

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the general government debt was made up of:

• 83.4% debt securities in the euro area and 82.9% in the EU,​
• 13.8% loans in the euro area and 14.4% in the EU and​
• 2.8% currency and deposits in the euro area and 2.7% in the EU.​
• https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/russia/public-debt/#:~:text=Public debt in Russia averaged,18.9% of GDP in 2022.

First of all, Russia confiscated all the western asset in Russia, which mean they forcefully write off at least 300 billion (Putin word) of debt, which mean their Debt to GDP ratio is not really reflecting the actual view. On the other hand, EU and the West Sanction mean whatever money Russia owing is now unrecoverable (as they are under sanction) again, that forcibly forgive majority of Russian foreign debt to begin with.

Secondly You can't compare Russia and EU debt. EU debt/bond can generate healthy outcome because of it's credit rating. Ie, banks are willing to loan money to them, and country are willing to buy their bond.

Russia DO NOT CURRENTLY have a credit rating. (S&P did not rate them, Finch and Moody both withdraw their rating), Which mean Russia cannot even get a loan to begin with. In personally finance term. You are comparing with a person who are good on their credit card payment to a dead beat that nobody is going to issue a line of credit to them who still have debt, yes, the deadbeat may not have that much debt to asset issue but then the person who owe more, and able to repay is generally in better health financially, the issue is, how you can repay the debt if no one is going to lend you money, which mean in Russian term, anything other than 0% of Debt to GDP is unhealthy because the prospect of repayment is zero. Any debt would most likely be result in a write off, that's why I keep saying China is going to fill that pit as long as they are supporting Russia, and that debt pit is just going to get bigger and bigger

In financial term, the debt Russia had is a bad debt, ie it cannot ever be recoverable.