Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates
- Thread starter ghazi52
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F-22Raptor
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Russian losses now exceed 20,900
j_hungary
Professional
what make me say that? Dude, how about I have a Degree in Business Administration from UNSW and a master's in international economy from International College of Management, Sydney? May I ask what's your education in this speciality?
First of all, how do you get the "40% GDP debt number"? Assuming it is coming out of your behind again like the 800 km "progress" a month like you claim? First of all, ALL INTEREST is compounded, it's 21% this year, it will be 1x1.21x1.21 the next year, so even if it represent 40% of Debt to GDP as you claim for this year, then it will be 96% next year then 170% the third year, because interest is compounding, it's not a flat debt, which is the reason why borrowing from a Credit Card is bad, you aren't talking about just one off, you are talking about as long as the interest rate stayed and as long as people are depositing, the debt will keep piling on. And it depends on how much circulation vs how much deposit, arbitrarily saying it's 40% debt to GDP is pointless.
Second, they can't pay it off by Central Bank that's the issue, because there are only a certain amount of M0 with Central bank, the only way you can cover this payment is to increase the M0 with Central Bank, which mean printing more money, again, using your own number, 40% of GDP debt means the Russian Central bank would need to print out 40% of 2.18 trillion dollar of Russian GDP to offset that amount, that's about 800 billions US dollars' worth of Rouble (That's roughly 67 Trillion Rouble using cv rate 1 USD to 84 Rouble today), and you know how much total Rouble is in circulation??
are you telling me printing roughly ~4 times the circulation of the total money Russia had is A-OK.
And finally, you can't sell off that much money with resource in an instant, you need buyer and market to do that, nobody is going to buy 800 billion worth of Russian anything (gas, oil, iron ore, potatoes or whatever) in one go to pay off the debt, in fact, can they be possibly done? Just because you have 10 trillion of dollar worth of resource does not mean you can produce 10 trillion worth of resource in 1 year, let alone having country to buy that? Who can afford such a deal beside the Chinese? I don't think even India have spare 800 billion to pay off a deal like this.
If you want to be a fool, that's up to you, but don't blow shit in front of my face and say it's snow, I know what shit and snow looks like, and obviously, you don't.
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