Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation

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Excellent post!

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It is time for an honest discussion about Turkey’s role in destabilizing the Middle East.

Erdogan’s foreign policy began as a bold, rebellious, neo-Ottoman vision—an ambitious attempt to restore Turkey’s influence over former Ottoman territories. However, this vision was eventually co-opted to serve Western interests in the region. What proved intolerable to the West, however, was Erdogan’s growing hostility toward Israel, exemplified by incidents like the Mavi Marmara crisis.

The turning point came in 2016. On a fateful night, Erdogan found himself on the brink of elimination during the coup attempt. Forced to plead with his people over FaceTime—appearing like a character pulled from a bad parody—he narrowly escaped an assassination attempt by commandos at his resort in Marmaris. That night, the old Erdogan died.

The message from the West was clear: opposition to Israel’s agenda was unacceptable. Erdogan capitulated almost immediately. Since then, his resistance has been reduced to little more than hollow rhetoric. His behavior over the past 13 months underscores this transformation. Despite fiery speeches, Turkey continued to supply oil to Israel without interruption, and Erdogan has worked to undermine Assad—one of Israel’s staunchest adversaries in the region.

Critics are right to point out that the United States and Israel benefit most from these developments. Yet, their success would have been far harder to achieve without Turkey’s willing participation. Turkey has become a hub for militant state-sponsored Islamism, with its influence stretching from Syria through Central Asia to China’s Xinjiang region.

It is Turkey that targets so-called “Turkish brother nations” with a toxic blend of radical Islamism, revisionist history, pan-Turkism, and victimhood propaganda. This strategy not only extends Turkey’s influence but also radicalizes individuals, turning them into tools for Western geopolitical objectives. The infamous Crocus terrorist attack in Moscow, for instance, was traced back to Turkish training camps.

Meanwhile, the jihadis left festering in Idlib have been unleashed once more, spreading chaos across Syria as they did a decade ago. This chaos is not incidental—it is cultivated, supported, and funded by the Turkish state. Under Erdogan, Turkey has become the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, a willing accomplice in advancing the U.S. Empire’s objectives in the region.The rest of Erdogan’s posturing is mere theater—smoke and mirrors designed to deceive only those still willing to believe in a dream that has long since died.

From Moscow to Beijing, it’s time to face this reality.
 
Can someone please give me a quick summary of who are the good guys and who isn't?

Or is this a bit complicated? Trying to understand. Thank you in advance.
No one is good here. Syria is a playground for regional powers and great powers. Assad is a brutal dictator (supported by Shias militias, Iran and Russia) and the rebels were affiliated to Al Qaeda (so most likely they have the same ideologies). There is some rumors that the rebels were/are being funded by Israel and GCC countries etc...

All of them have committed a lot of atrocities
 
It's hard figuring out who to support. There are a dozen or more parties involved, but at the basic level the main players are Turkey and Iran, two countries that I respect.

Considering that Syria is a Sunni majority country my preference will be that Turkey should be allowed to occupy all of Syria and bring order to it. Hold elections and hand over power to whoever the people of Syria elect.

Iran is the good guy from the point of view of helping the Palestinians and fighting Israel. But help for Hezbollah must not be at the cost of the people of Syria. The country needs to be stabilized, and the refugees must be allowed to return. Iran should not force Assad's government on the people of Syria.

Once Syria is stabilized and has a legitimate government then that government can become a partner with both Iran and Turkey to help the Palestinians.

So, as a wellwisher of Syria, Turkey, and Iran I rule in favour of Turkey being allowed to take over Syria and fighting to stop as soon as possible.
 
I highly doubt Turkey is backing HTS in this conflict. HTS and SNA even had clashes before and HTS opposes Turkey's presence in Idlib (they shelled Turkish bases a few times in the past). Turkey also wouldn't want to create a situation where HTS is pushed back eventually and a new wave of immigration starts from Idlib to Turkey.


Looking at how HTS is using FPV drones, I think involvement of Israel/US/Ukraine in HTS' backing is much more likely.


There is also the question of "what is the goal"?


The only goal I can think of would be the creation of a diversion of Iranian/Syrian forces. Make them focus on Aleppo while Turkey launches an operation on Manbij. Any other goal does not make sense.


While the posters have made lots of summary here of the Syrian civil war, they fail to capture the geopolitics of the situation.
 
For Pakistanis, here's a way to figure out this mess. The vast majority of Pakistanis agree that Asim Munir Whiskey and his generals are bandits and have no legal right to rule Pakistan. He just killed hundreds of Pakistanis protesting his illegitimate rule and most people are condemning these murders and want Whiskey & Co. to be overthrown.

Similarly, by what right is Assad ruling Syria? He's a bandit like Asim Munir who has killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians to stay in power. Millions of Syrians are roaming around the world as refugees in Turkey and Europe. If Assad is such a good ruler and he thinks that most of the population supports him then he should hold elections to prove it.

If Assad is an illegitimate ruler than he is responsible for the death and destruction in the country. He should have gone away and spared his people the suffering. Forget about Israel, US, Russia etc. the question is if Assad has some kind of God-given right to rule Syria forever? If not, then Iran and Russia should cooperate with Turkey to bring a legitimate government to Syria and spare it from more war.
 
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this map is a bit optimistic as the SDF allegedly reached a deal with the HTS terrorists to evacuate north Aleppo
 
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