Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation

[Persian Gulf]

Trump's message to Sharaa with his envoy to Damascus today
Ahmed, you will be a great leader and the United States will help!

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as long as Jolani agrees to give up the Golan Heights and demilitarise Syrian territory all the way to Damascus

 

[hyperman]

as long as Jolani agrees to give up the Golan Heights and demilitarise Syrian territory all the way to Damascus

That won't happen, and that the reason they are bombing. The biggest issue though imo isn't even in the South, the issue is with the PKK, which is holding all the oil fields, but that would require Turkey to do something, but things are complicated b/c of the negotiations with the PKK over disarmament.

 

[hyperman]

Israeli Hijri is killing any druze opposition inside Suwaida.

 

[Persian Gulf]

That won't happen, and that the reason they are bombing. The biggest issue though imo isn't even in the South, the issue is with the PKK, which is holding all the oil fields, but that would require Turkey to do something, but things are complicated b/c of the negotiations with the PKK over disarmament.

Jolani clearly wants sanctions relief and to be friends with Trump

and he has not reacted to Israel's incursions and new occupations in the south, which are already close to Damascus

a DMZ all the way to Damascus is insane but it is already close to the de facto current situation

 

[hyperman]

Jolani clearly wants sanctions relief and to be friends with Trump

and he has not reacted to Israel's incursions and new occupations in the south, which are already close to Damascus

a DMZ all the way to Damascus is insane but it is already close to the de facto current situation

They don't have capacity to fight Israel regardless, and any active fight would give the land thieves reason to try launch an operation to ethnically cleanse Daraa and try to create some sort of Druze buffer state in the south.

Right now what Syria needs is time, they are buying time, the north needs to be consolidated, with the PKK gone, the US will also might also leave the area potentially, as the PKK is the anchor for their presence in Syria.

Israel doesn't want to see a rebuilt syria or a consolidated Syria with sanctions removed.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

They don't have capacity to fight Israel regardless, and any active fight would give the land thieves reason to try launch an operation to ethnically cleanse Daraa and try to create some sort of Druze buffer state in the south.

Right now what Syria needs is time, they are buying time, the north needs to be consolidated, with the PKK gone, the US will also might also leave the area potentially, as the PKK is the anchor for their presence in Syria.

Israel doesn't want to see a rebuilt syria or a consolidated Syria with sanctions removed.

They have the capacity. They can mobilize millions and Turkey, Qatar could provide them weapons and funding. They also have more combat experience. It's actually now or never because in long term they will be pacified.

 

[Persian Gulf]

They don't have capacity to fight Israel regardless, and any active fight would give the land thieves reason to try launch an operation to ethnically cleanse Daraa and try to create some sort of Druze buffer state in the south.

Right now what Syria needs is time, they are buying time, the north needs to be consolidated, with the PKK gone, the US will also might also leave the area potentially, as the PKK is the anchor for their presence in Syria.

Israel doesn't want to see a rebuilt syria or a consolidated Syria with sanctions removed.

Jolani doesn't want to fight the PKK to expel the US, he's trying to be friends with Trump

and the US' presence there is a marginal issue and doesn't impact Israel wanting its DMZ in south Syria. if the Kurds join Jolani and the US leaves Syria, nothing about the relationship with Israel changes

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

They don't have capacity to fight Israel regardless, and any active fight would give the land thieves reason to try launch an operation to ethnically cleanse Daraa and try to create some sort of Druze buffer state in the south.

Right now what Syria needs is time, they are buying time, the north needs to be consolidated, with the PKK gone, the US will also might also leave the area potentially, as the PKK is the anchor for their presence in Syria.

Israel doesn't want to see a rebuilt syria or a consolidated Syria with sanctions removed.

Maybe Turkey made a deal with PKK? You can be active in Syria if you leave Turkey forever.

Julani is a puppet and he's in a weak position to oust US backed YPG/PYD. But it depends on his will, if he's ready to become independent from Israel/west, he could take those parts back.

 

[Shags101]

Jolani doesn't want to fight the PKK to expel the US, he's trying to be friends with Trump

and the US' presence there is a marginal issue and doesn't impact Israel wanting its DMZ in south Syria. if the Kurds join Jolani and the US leaves Syria, nothing about the relationship with Israel changes

Honestly got nothing against the Kurds they have been marginalized and pushed around from one country to another I definitely don’t believe Syria Iraq turkey or Iran should be divided I’m just saying a simple fact.
Jolani even if he wanted to go up again the Kurds it wouldn’t be difficult to get trump on board it’s about the oil plain and simple promise him a trump building as well he’s on board but do I think Kurds will fall as easily as bashars forces that didn’t even put up a fight why wouldn’t they mobilize their forces to repel jolani if its just one force against the other it will be a war of attrition it would last many years with no winners Kurds are fully entrenched they would need turkey to assist with air power

 

[hyperman]

They have the capacity. They can mobilize millions and Turkey, Qatar could provide them weapons and funding. They also have more combat experience. It's actually now or never because in long term they will be pacified.

They don't have capacity, no more so than Hezbollah has capacity. Its not now or never, right now is literally the weakest the state has been its divided on 3 fronts and trying to consolidate.

 

[hyperman]

Jolani doesn't want to fight the PKK to expel the US, he's trying to be friends with Trump

and the US' presence there is a marginal issue and doesn't impact Israel wanting its DMZ in south Syria. if the Kurds join Jolani and the US leaves Syria, nothing about the relationship with Israel changes

It does change things, Syria is in a stronger position if the PKK element is removed and the US has left, b/c then there is only 1 front left, towards Suwaida and the Golan. right now there are 3 fronts. Consolidation plus acquisition of resources is always a positive.

It won't be Jolani that initiates the fight, it will be Turkey and the SNA groups. Me personally this fight should have happened 1 year ago, after Assad fell and then Manbij was taken, if it was up to me, Turkey would have intervened and we would have be done with this nuisance. I'm not really sure what the calculation is or what the holdup is, but IMO Turkey has been too passive in letting thing play out, rather than actively shaping it.

 

[The SC]

Syria update - Wednesday evening

1- The ambassadors of the 15 countries at the Security Council in Damascus after hours.
2- The first visit of its kind, an agreement between the permanent and non-permanent members. A meeting with Al-Sharaa and Al-Shaibani... civil society and families of victims
3- Morgan Ortagus is expected to participate instead of Michael Waltz, the American delegate and former national security advisor

4- The United Nations General Assembly votes by 123 votes (97 last year) not to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan.
5- The resolution calls on Israel to withdraw to the June 4, 1967 line.

9- In March 2019, Trump supported Israeli sovereignty over the Golan. Al-Sharaa informed Trump of their meeting in Washington, rejecting the annexation decision
10- A handwritten letter from Trump to Al-Sharaa: “Ahmed, you will be a great leader. The United States will help you.”
11- Trump meets Netanyahu in Washington before the end of the month: Syria is a major issue... and the security agreement
12- Trump warned Netanyahu by phone against destabilizing Syria after the incursion of his forces into Beit Jinn, south of Damascus.

12- Netanyahu: A security agreement with Syria is possible... and for a demilitarized zone between Damascus and Mount Hermon
13- Syria demands Israel’s withdrawal to the December 7, 2024 line
14- Al-Sharaa met Trump’s envoy, Barak, and two delegations from the American “Chevron” oil company.
15- One person was killed and 4 arrested as an attempt to smuggle mines heading to Lebanon was thwarted

 

[Persian Gulf]

It does change things, Syria is in a stronger position if the PKK element is removed and the US has left, b/c then there is only 1 front left, towards Suwaida and the Golan. right now there are 3 fronts. Consolidation plus acquisition of resources is always a positive.

It won't be Jolani that initiates the fight, it will be Turkey and the SNA groups. Me personally this fight should have happened 1 year ago, after Assad fell and then Manbij was taken, if it was up to me, Turkey would have intervened and we would have be done with this nuisance. I'm not really sure what the calculation is or what the holdup is, but IMO Turkey has been too passive in letting thing play out, rather than actively shaping it.

the US government is not fighting Jolani, that's not a 'front'.

any 'consolidation' would be minimal, there isn't active fighting right now between Jolani and the Kurds. the most the Kurds would agree to is to nominally join the government and share resources a bit more. an important step for Syria's sovereignty but I don't see it impacting Syria's ability or desire to resist Israel

 

[Ali_Baba]

They don't have capacity to fight Israel regardless, and any active fight would give the land thieves reason to try launch an operation to ethnically cleanse Daraa and try to create some sort of Druze buffer state in the south.

Right now what Syria needs is time, they are buying time, the north needs to be consolidated, with the PKK gone, the US will also might also leave the area potentially, as the PKK is the anchor for their presence in Syria.

Israel doesn't want to see a rebuilt syria or a consolidated Syria with sanctions removed.

And if Syria cannot draw the line, and say no more, then there won't be a Syria left as Israel will have occupied it. You cannot ignore the security dimension of this while Israel continues to creep forward and occupies more and more land.

What is the answer to stop this rot of Syria's sovereignty of what remains of its land int he south?

 

[hyperman]

the US government is not fighting Jolani, that's not a 'front'.

any 'consolidation' would be minimal, there isn't active fighting right now between Jolani and the Kurds. the most the Kurds would agree to is to nominally join the government and share resources a bit more. an important step for Syria's sovereignty but I don't see it impacting Syria's ability or desire to resist Israel

I didn't say the US govt was a front, the PKK is a front thought, they control 1/3 of Syria and most of its oil and gas.