Syrian Civil War and The future of Syria after liberation

[Tsubasa]

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Did anyone here really believe that Russia would give up its only naval base in the Mediterranean?

 

[FHN]

Muslims haven't got a clue lol. Think holy warriors are doing good work, where is holy work in libya? Noone talks about it until the media highlight and pumps it.

the most likely scenario to play out is a Syria under US control they will move in to Lebanon to finish off hezbollah then Yemen and put more economic pressure on Iran in hope for a regime change. Then no one else will dare to challenge Israel anymore. Americans and Israel are playing 3d chess. They know the art of war. Pit the enemies against each other.

 

[PakAl]

Not likely. It's too far away from Turkish border. The land corridor will completely cut off Iran access to Lebanon.

How will the Kurdish from north establishment land corridor with Israel, it's like cutting Syria in the middle, they will need support from Syrian in the south Damascus side. Possible HTS and Kurdish alliance with Turkey SNA controlling Aleppo. I wonder what is the official stance of Turkey backed SNA on the new Syria, will they accept divided Syria or would want all territory. Iraq has a government and army but accepts North Iraq autonomous, with own government and army. This may look good but 20 years down the line I can see a new country forming.

 

[MMM-E]

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[Tsubasa]

Syria's governing system had big problems. It wasn't as tyrannical as other countries,but it wasn't a democracy either. It had a lot of mistakes. First of all,the continuation of the term "Arab Syrian Republic". In a country with Kurds,Turkmens, Armenians,Assyrians and maybe a few others,that term should have been abolished.

Then they should have given more autonomy to the Kurds. I'm not talking about autonomy like in Iraq,I mean recognize their language,give them some more rights.

And after 2017 he should have negotiated with them a kind of federation.

Now about Assad? I like the man. I want to think he's a good person. He didn't want to be president. He was forced to become president. I think it's some power circles in Damascus and the family that prevented him in doing a lot of things that he wanted. I remember that many years ago he wanted to do some reforms,but somehow everything stopped. Assad though is the best guarantee for the Christians,Shia and Alawis in that country.

I knew Syrians in real life some 20 years ago. From Halab too. Syria was a beautiful country,full of culture and fun too. Sunnis enjoyed freedom,Christians did too,everyone did. There was life there. Restaurants,cafes,art,museums.
The only thing you shouldn't do is challenge the regime.

That brings us to the other problem. The whole Assad photos and statues everywhere. I don't call it a cult of personality,because it's not as harsh or ridiculous as in other countries,but it should have been stopped after the war calmed down a bit and there could have been more focus on the motherland,than the leader. The government had bad PR and strategies.

Syria is an Arab state with an Arab majority, and the term "Arab Syrian Republic" reflects that reality. The claim that Assad supposedly wanted reforms but was prevented by other forces is a cheap narrative to dodge responsibility. He had 20 years - longer than most politicians worldwide stay in power. In that time, he seemed more concerned with erecting statues and plastering his face on posters than implementing real reforms. If he truly wanted to, he had plenty of opportunities.

 

[FHN]

How will the Kurdish from north establishment land corridor with Israel, it's like cutting Syria in the middle, they will need support from Syrian in the south Damascus side. Possible HTS and Kurdish alliance with Turkey SNA controlling Aleppo. I wonder what is the official stance of Turkey backed SNA on the new Syria, will they accept divided Syria or would want all territory. Iraq has a government and army but accepts North Iraq autonomous, with own government and army. This may look good but 20 years down the line I can see a new country forming.

They will do what the Americans say. The US is still the most powerful entity in syria. Kurdistan is a US occupied puppet state. They control all the oil fields in that region. If turkey dares to challenge, they will pay a hefty price.

 

[PakAl]

the most likely scenario to play out is a Syria under US control they will move in to Lebanon to finish off hezbollah then Yemen and put more economic pressure on Iran in hope for a regime change. Then no one else will dare to challenge Israel anymore. Americans and Israel are playing 3d chess. They know the art of war. Pit the enemies against each other.

This may sound bad but they're really good at it. Look how they finished Syria and next Hizbollah without invasion, divide and rule on sects, ethnicities. We all knew this plan 20 years back but didn't know how it will work out. Hizbollah is 100% on the list, people in Lebanon will rebel against Hizbollah, possibly ban it, and over the years weaken it, then use salafis to destroy them. Afterwards everyone will hug and recognise Israel and say we forgive and move on.

 

[PakAl]

Did anyone here really believe that Russia would give up its only naval base in the Mediterranean?

Yes, they look finished.

 

[FHN]

This may sound bad but they're really good at it. Look how they finished Syria and next Hizbollah without invasion, divide and rule on sects, ethnicities. We all knew this plan 20 years back but didn't know how it will work out. Hizbollah is 100% on the list, people in Lebanon will rebel against Hizbollah, possibly ban it, and over the years weaken it, then use salafis to destroy them. Afterwards everyone will hug and recognise Israel and say we forgive and move on.

They will do a joint military operation with the Saudi to finish off the houthis. Then what is Iran going to do? Openly declaring war on the US? I don't think so. The plan right now is too diminish Iran influence in the region by cutting off it's access to hezbollah through Syria. Gaza is done if Assad loses.

 

[MMM-E]

Since the start of the Aleppo operation, 35 air platforms and 145 Tanks have been captured by the Syrian opposition Forces

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[PakAl]

They will do what the Americans say. The US is still the most powerful entity in syria. Kurdistan is a US occupied puppet state. They control all the oil fields in that region. If turkey dares to challenge, they will pay a hefty price.

So Turkey screwed themselves, they can destroy Assad but in 20 years will witness a strong Kurdish state on its borders with Iraq and Syria. This is why I mentioned many times, Turkey is a big looser, they should have opposed Syrian war, made alliance with Assad to control the Kurdish rebels, stopped terrorists entering Syria. Today Syria would have been Turkey friend and with Assad government keeping eye on Kurdish rebels, if Assad falls Kurdish rise and if Assad stays Kurdish stay down. Look at Iraq, with Saddam gone Kurdish gain alot of power. Even if turkey forms a small state in Aleppo, then like you mentioned they cannot do anything against Kurdish rebels but Assad could have as he wanted united Syrian Arab nation.

 

[FHN]

So Turkey screwed themselves, they can destroy Assad but in 20 years will witness a strong Kurdish state on its borders with Iraq and Syria. This is why I mentioned many times, Turkey is a big looser, they should have opposed Syrian war, made alliance with Assad to control the Kurdish rebels, stopped terrorists entering Syria. Today Syria would have been Turkey friend and with Assad government keeping eye on Kurdish rebels, if Assad falls Kurdish rise and if Assad stays Kurdish stay down. Look at Iraq, with Saddam gone Kurdish gain alot of power. Even if turkey forms a small state in Aleppo, then like you mentioned they cannot do anything against Kurdish rebels but Assad could have as he wanted united Syrian Arab nation.

I've said it before the Kurds are the US second biggest ally behind only to Israel. They got their pick but erdogan still insist on toppling Assad but again Assad doesn't want to have any negotiation with erdogan. The fault is not 100 percent on erdogan but he's definitely part of the problem alongside qatar and Saudi Arabia. They support the rebels through back channel financially.

 

[PakAl]

They will do a joint military operation with the Saudi to finish off the houthis. Then what is Iran going to do? Openly declaring war on the US? I don't think so. The plan right now is too diminish Iran influence in the region by cutting off it's access to hezbollah through Syria. Gaza is done if Assad loses.

Usa is proving it's power. Iran did well but unfortunately it's not strong enough economically and militarily to help create a powerful ally nation. Assad SAA should have been strong enough to deal with terrorists but failed, then with many years of peace I assumed they must have become alot strong but still need help from Iraq militias to keep control. It looks like he will be finished soon.

 

[MMM-E]

389 military equipment seized between November 27 and December 4

Tanks: 145
Radar: 3
IFV/APC: 96
Engineering Vehicle: 5
Artillery: 87
Aircraft: 35
Air Defense Systems : 18

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[FHN]

Usa is proving it's power. Iran did well but unfortunately it's not strong enough economically and militarily to help create a powerful ally nation. Assad SAA should have been strong enough to deal with terrorists but failed, then with many years of peace I assumed they must have become alot strong but still need help from Iraq militias to keep control. It looks like he will be finished soon.

Iran has to do more if it wants to maintain any sort of influence in the levant. They can't let Assad fall like that. It seems like the Russians are the only one fully behind Assad. They too have much to lose lol say what u want about Russia but they truly are a great asset to anyone who wants to challenge US hegemony cause they are not afraid to intervene and fight. What Russia is afraid of is the pipeline connecting qatar to Europe from Syria and turkey. They know what's at stake.