The US and India have become regional rivals

3 Governments, 1 China Policy? Dhaka’s Evolving Engagement With Beijing

While Bangladesh’s domestic politics have undergone huge change over the past two years, its relations with China have displayed greater continuity than rupture.

By Saqlain Rizve
June 29, 2026

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Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s first overseas tour since taking office in February did not begin in Beijing or New Delhi. Instead, it began in Kuala Lumpur, where discussions centered on labor migration, trade, investment and economic cooperation.

Rahman then travelled to China for the second leg of his tour, which combined participation in the Summer Davos forum with an official bilateral visit.

The sequencing was noteworthy as China is Bangladesh’s largest trade partner and one of its most important development partners. Yet, Beijing was not chosen as Rahman’s inaugural foreign destination. Equally notable was the absence of an early visit to India, Bangladesh’s closest neighbor.

Whether this reflected diplomatic scheduling, economic priorities, or the political environment inherited by the new government, the sequence shows the balancing act facing Dhaka’s new administration.

But more important than which capital came first on Rahman’s agenda is a deeper question: Has Bangladesh’s China policy fundamentally changed under successive governments, or has engagement with Beijing become one of the few areas of continuity in Bangladesh’s foreign policy?

A comparison of the joint statements issued during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Beijing in July 2024, Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus’ visit in March 2025, and Rahman’s visit in June 2026 suggests that while the emphasis of the relationship has evolved, its overall trajectory has remained remarkably consistent.

At first glance, the three visits appear to represent three different political moments. Hasina’s China visit came months after her Awami League secured another term in office in a general election that was widely criticized as flawed.

Yunus visited Beijing after the dramatic political transition of August 2024, when Hasina was ousted from power. He was leading an interim administration whose foreign policy direction was uncertain. His administration’s relations with India were fraught with tension. Rahman’s visit last week came months after his Bangladesh Nationalist Party swept to power in the 2026 general election. Unlike the Hasina and Yunus administrations, Rahman’s government enjoys democratic credibility.

Despite these different political contexts, the official documents reveal considerable continuity.

Hasina’s 2024 visit maintained diplomatic engagement with China without producing major shifts in bilateral relations. The two countries elevated their relationship from a Strategic Partnership to a Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership, laying out an expansive agenda covering Belt and Road cooperation, infrastructure, trade, digital economy, finance, agriculture, maritime cooperation, defense exchanges, education, health, and climate cooperation. The document reflected China’s continued commitment to Bangladesh’s infrastructure-led development model, while Bangladesh sought larger financial commitments and deeper economic integration.

Yet the immediate outcomes of that visit were viewed in Dhaka with mixed feelings. Bangladesh reportedly sought substantially greater financial support than Beijing ultimately offered, leading many to question whether the diplomatic upgrade had been matched by economic deliverables.

The political transition that followed only a few weeks later created uncertainty about whether Bangladesh’s approach toward China would change.

Instead, Yunus’ March 2025 visit demonstrated the resilience of the bilateral relationship. Rather than introducing a new framework, the joint press release largely reaffirmed the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership established under Hasina. Cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative, Mongla Port, the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Chittagong, trade negotiations, investment, water management, and the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project all remained on the agenda.

Despite one of the most significant political transitions in Bangladesh’s recent history, the country’s approach toward China changed far less than many had anticipated. Beijing welcomed the interim government and emphasized support for Bangladesh’s reform process without seeking to redefine the bilateral relationship.

Rahman’s visit appears to represent a different phase not because it abandoned previous priorities, but because it sought to deepen them institutionally.

Many of the economic themes remain familiar. Trade, investment, industrial cooperation, Mongla Port modernization, the Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone, green energy, and connectivity all reappear in the latest joint statement. Teesta also remains central.

But the 2026 communiqué introduces elements that were either absent or far less developed in the previous documents.

One development that deserves close attention is China’s proposal for a China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor. According to the Bangladesh Prime Minister’s Office, the proposal was discussed during the meeting between Xi and Rahman as a way to strengthen regional connectivity, trade and economic cooperation. However, it does not appear in the official joint communiqué, making it difficult to determine whether it represents a formal bilateral commitment or remains an idea under discussion.

The proposal also comes after a debate in Bangladesh in 2025 over a UN-supported humanitarian corridor into Myanmar’s Rakhine State.

More broadly, regional connectivity corridors are not new to Bangladesh-China relations. China had previously promoted the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor, which ultimately stalled. The latest proposal appears to revive the connectivity concept in a different form by excluding India.

China and Bangladesh also agreed to establish a strategic dialogue between the two foreign ministers, explore a “2+2” dialogue mechanism involving diplomacy and defense officials, strengthen exchanges between governments, legislatures and political parties, and jointly build a “China-Bangladesh community with a shared future in the new era.”

The emphasis on stronger political ties was also reflected outside the joint communiqué. During the visit, the BNP and the Communist Party of China signed their first memorandum of understanding, creating a formal framework for exchanges between the two parties. While separate from government-to-government diplomacy, the agreement complements the communiqué’s broader emphasis on expanding engagement across governments, legislatures and political parties. Taken together, these developments indicate that Bangladesh-China relations are evolving beyond project-based cooperation toward more structured political and institutional engagement.

The Teesta project offers perhaps the clearest example of how the relationship has developed over the past three years. Under Hasina, cooperation focused largely on water management, hydrological forecasting and river management. During Yunus’ visit, Bangladesh welcomed Chinese companies to participate in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. Under Rahman, the language became more concrete, with China expressing support for the project, agreeing to assist with the feasibility study, and pledging support within its capacity.

The same gradual evolution is visible in Bangladesh’s engagement with Chinese-led multilateral initiatives. During Hasina’s visit, China welcomed Bangladesh’s interest in BRICS membership and closer association with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The issue received little attention during Yunus’ visit but reappeared more prominently in the 2026 communiqué, where Beijing explicitly supported Bangladesh’s participation in BRICS and its application to become an SCO partner.

Perhaps the most important shift across the three visits is not geopolitical but economic. The language of the joint statements reveals Bangladesh’s changing expectations from China.

The 2024 statement focused heavily on infrastructure — bridges, railways, power networks, ICT, and large Belt and Road projects. The 2025 document placed greater emphasis on industrialization, manufacturing, investment, and economic recovery. In 2026, the agenda has expanded further to include supply chains, e-commerce, scientific innovation, photovoltaic technology, export upgrading, green energy, and industrial modernization.

This reflects Bangladesh’s own economic transition. As the country prepares for graduation from least developed country (LDC) status — currently set for 2026, though negotiations to defer it until 2029 are ongoing—its priorities are shifting from infrastructure development to strengthening industrial competitiveness, attracting higher-quality investment, integrating into regional supply chains, and diversifying exports beyond ready-made garments.

For Bangladesh, therefore, the significance of Rahman’s visit lies less in the number of agreements signed than in what they reveal about the evolution of the bilateral relationship. Hasina upgraded the partnership. Yunus preserved it through the political transition. Rahman has begun to institutionalize it.

At the same time, it would be an overstatement to describe the visit as a diplomatic breakthrough. Such a breakthrough would normally involve a major investment or financing package, a completely new strategic direction, a formal defense alliance, the resolution of a long-standing dispute, Bangladesh joining a major geopolitical bloc, or a landmark infrastructure commitment. The 2026 visit did not fundamentally reshape Bangladesh-China relations in those ways. Instead, it strengthened and formalized an existing partnership.

Whether this institutional deepening ultimately produces greater investment, stronger exports, or more effective development cooperation remains uncertain.

Viewed together, these three visits show how the relationship has evolved.

While Bangladesh’s domestic politics have undergone extraordinary change over the past two years, its engagement with China has displayed far greater continuity than rupture.

 
The Indians wouldn't play ball and take on the Chinese so the Americans turned against India ... The Americans are now on Plan B
The U.S. tends to use proxies in conflicts, like in Ukraine. I think India is just not satisfied with the position the U.S. has set for it.

Or in other words, India isn't happy with the benefits the U.S. promised.

The U.S. is pressuring India just to force it into a proxy role. The two countries won't escalate to direct confrontation. India is an important part of the U.S.'s 'Indo-Pacific strategy.'

Here's a simple introduction to the 'Indo-Pacific strategy.'

The Indo-Pacific strategy is a geopolitical plan proposed by the U.S. in 2017, aimed at integrating the Indian Ocean–Pacific region. It seeks to maintain U.S. dominance there through military, economic, and diplomatic means while containing China's influence.
 
Taking on China was the long term play. Even the Americans understood that about India. The Indian failure to tackle Pakistan , despite enjoying 30 years of courtship, praise and investment from America is what I think set the US against them.

The US feels India was scamming it the same way the Chinese promised America freedom and democracy reforms for a quarter century, in exchange for investment, and then finally grew enough to tell the US to get lost.
I agree with you on your first part. But the second part is unfounded. China never promised US anything such as so called "freedom and democracy" for American investments. It's pure American arrogant wish and design that China will turn into a nation modeled after the US after it developed, the manifest of destiny at the best or the conversion of China into something like pro-Christian society as the Westerners tried for the past few centuries, lol. The Americans are in China to make money not charity. By the way, the overwhelming majority of foreign or outside investments in China for the past decades since the reform in 1978 came from greater Chinese sphere such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, not the West including the US, so don't exaggerate the importance of Western investments in China's developments. As a matter of fact, Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China's reform, had the national agenda and path set up for the younger generations of Chinese leadership that is "to build Socialist China with Chinese characteristics", that is in direct contradiction of the so called "promises" to US.
 
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Chellaney is a hawk, so his words should be read keeping that context in mind. I don't think US and India are rivals in the region, but sometimes interests may diverge.
 
Why closer ties between India, China could reshape global governance

bdnews24.com
Published : 29 Jun 2026

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As the global balance of power shifts towards Asia, the relationship between India and China has become far more than a bilateral affair.

Together, the world's two most populous countries account for more than 40 percent of global economic growth, placing them in a unique position to influence the future of international governance, Xu Wei, consul-general of the People’s Republic of China in Kolkata, wrote in The Indian Express.

Supporters of closer engagement argue that cooperation between New Delhi and Beijing could help counter unilateralism and build a more balanced global order by drawing on the region's longstanding traditions of coexistence.

Xu argues that sustainable development and shared security should form the foundation of stronger ties between the two neighbours.

He says global progress depends on moving beyond zero-sum competition and embracing inclusive, sustainable development -- a vision he says aligns with India's long-term ambitions for 2047.

Development, he writes, should be recognised as a universal right rather than a privilege enjoyed by a few.

Xu also argues that lasting security cannot be achieved at the expense of neighbouring countries. Instead, it requires mutual trust, respect for sovereignty and the peaceful resolution of disputes.

He points to the principles of the historic Panchsheel agreement as a model for managing differences and strengthening bilateral confidence.

He says cultural diversity should be viewed as a bridge rather than a source of division. The idea, he notes, resonates with India's philosophy of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam -- the belief that the world is one family -- and encourages both countries to resist divisive narratives while expanding dialogue and institutional cooperation.

Ultimately, Xu argues, India and China have a shared responsibility to support a fairer system of global governance centred on the United Nations.

By respecting each other's core interests and pursuing common prosperity, he says, the two Asian powers could help turn the vision of an Asian century into reality.

Some kind of wishful thinking. For one thing, do they trust each other at some level ? China learned its lesson from past decades on relation with India.
 
Colombo to Kathmandu, China Seeks to Counteract US Moves Across South Asia

While Washington and New Delhi seek to strengthen bilateral ties with Colombo, Beijing has strategically engaged with the political forces that control the government. By engaging directly with actors at the core of Sri Lanka’s governance, Beijing appears to be signalling its strategic intent—projecting influence and reinforcing ideological ties.

By A. Jathindra
Jun 28, 2026

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On 22 June, Washington underscored its commitment to deepening ties with Colombo by announcing the provision of a Fleet Broadband satellite communications system valued at approximately US$4 million (over Rs. 1.2 billion) for the Sri Lanka Navy. The announcement, delivered by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Dr. S. Paul Kapur during his visit to SLNS Gajabahu at the Port of Colombo, highlighted the strategic importance the United States attaches to Sri Lanka’s role in safeguarding Indian Ocean security, particularly at a time of growing concern over China’s expanding footprint in the region.

Kapur described the system as “a transformational upgrade for the Sri Lanka Navy,” noting that the secure, real-time connection will be deployed across the fleet of offshore patrol vessels. “It will allow our Sri Lanka partners to respond quickly to emergencies, protect the cargo ships that fuel our economy, and disrupt illegal activity across the Indian Ocean before it reaches our shores,” he said.

Sri Lankan representatives, in turn, emphasised that the new capability significantly enhances maritime domain awareness, strengthens defence cooperation with the United States, and reaffirms the Navy’s vital role in monitoring activity along some of the world’s busiest shipping routes.

Washington Deepens Strategic Engagement

Kapur’s three-day visit to Colombo coincided with the arrival of other senior U.S. officials, including Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kevin Schneider, whose engagements centred on defence, security, and economic cooperation. These parallel visits highlight Washington’s growing emphasis on Sri Lanka amid mounting concerns over Chinese expansion in the Indian Ocean.

According to the U.S. Embassy in Colombo, the series of meetings reflects President Donald Trump’s commitment to strengthening partnerships that advance American prosperity and security, while deepening cooperation with Sri Lanka as a key Indian Ocean partner.

During his meeting with President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Kapur expressed satisfaction with the current level of cooperation and reaffirmed Washington’s determination to further consolidate bilateral relations. Dissanayake, in turn, reiterated Sri Lanka’s commitment to supporting regional peace and stability, signalling Colombo’s willingness to engage constructively with international partners while navigating the complex strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific.

The U.S. strategic focus on Sri Lanka is not new. During his visit to Colombo, then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo bluntly described the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as a “predator.” He added: “We see from bad deals, violations of sovereignty, and lawlessness on land and sea that the Chinese Communist Party is a predator, and the United States comes in a different way. We come as a friend and as a partner.”

This statement underscored Washington’s perception of Beijing’s influence in South Asia.

China's Expanding Strategic Footprint

China’s role remains central to this narrative. In testimony before the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, Dr. S. Paul Kapur observed that “defence cooperation with the United States helps [Sri Lanka] protect their borders and waterways against encroaching powers.”

During the hearing, Kapur emphasised that Sri Lanka’s geographical position gives it “outsized importance” in the Indo-Pacific and cautioned against Chinese coercion through predatory lending, citing the 99-year lease of Hambantota Port as a prime example. “We need to be able to offer high-quality, transparent, non-coercive alternatives,” he said, pointing to U.S. financing mechanisms, technology, and private enterprise as tools to counter Beijing’s strategy.

China’s engagement with Sri Lanka has been evident since the Rajapaksa era, when Beijing leveraged the final phase of the civil war to deepen ties with Colombo. While its moves have appeared more restrained in recent years, Beijing continues to signal its expansionist agenda and readiness to compete with the United States in the Indo-Pacific.

Symbolic Diplomacy and Political Messaging

Just days before Kapur’s visit, on 20 June, Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong met Tilvin Silva, the influential Secretary of the JVP, which played a decisive role in shaping Colombo’s foreign policy direction. During the meeting, the Ambassador presented Silva with the fifth volume of The Governance of China by Xi Jinping and discussed educational programmes for JVP and NPP members.

The symbolism of this gesture is striking. While Washington and New Delhi seek to strengthen bilateral ties with Colombo, Beijing has strategically engaged with the political forces that control the government. By engaging directly with actors at the core of Sri Lanka’s governance, Beijing appears to be signalling its strategic intent—projecting influence and reinforcing ideological ties.

The question that arises is clear: What message is China sending to Washington through such aggressively choreographed diplomacy?

A Wider Regional Pattern

This assertive Chinese approach was already evident in Kathmandu, where a similar dynamic unfolded during the visit of Paul Kapur. On the same day Kapur arrived in Nepal, Cao Qing, Deputy Director of the Asian Affairs Department at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also visited and held high-level meetings.

According to sources, Kapur met separately with Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) chairman and senior leaders, raising concerns over the security and management of Tibetan refugees. Cao, meanwhile, voiced similar concerns but framed them from Beijing’s perspective, particularly in relation to recent visits by representatives of the 14th Dalai Lama.

The pattern is apparent: China continues to position itself to counter U.S. moves across South Asia, signalling a determined strategy of competitive power play. Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka’s ability to genuinely contribute to peace and stability in the region remains uncertain, particularly as Beijing attempts to entrench its influence in Colombo.

If such engagement persists unchecked, the aspiration of maintaining the Indian Ocean as a “zone of peace” will remain confined to paper declarations.

Read more at: https://www.southasiamonitor.org/ge...-china-seeks-counteract-us-moves-across-south
 

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