Turkish Foreign Policy and Regional Geopolitics

[Foinikas]

lol, you keep guessing and you keep guessing wrong.

I didn't get,I observe that you're always cheering like it's your biggest interest,but you keep avoiding it to give a straight answer

 

[Foinikas]

Yes.. Its called research and Development. Outside of those missiles bought from China, everything was developed by Turkey. And even those Chinese missiles were the starting point, what came about after Turkey got technical knowledge, was Turkey building on top of that knowledge.

Only Chinese knowledge,huh?

 

[hyperman]

Only Chinese knowledge,huh?


View attachment 108279

Turkey bought tactical ballistic missiles in 1997, you really think Turkish Ballistic missiles being designed and produced now have not changed since then?

Thats like saying the Iranian ballistic missile program is really just Soviet Era Scuds.

And really the Soviets and the US all got their tech from the Nazi Germans.

Its silly, there has been a lot of development outside of the initial start point.

And what do Ballistic missiles have to do with all the other missiles Turkey has developed?

 

[Foinikas]

Turkey bought tactical ballistic missiles in 1997, you really think Turkish Ballistic missiles being designed and produced now have not changed since then?

Thats like saying the Iranian ballistic missile program is really just Soviet Era Scuds.

And really the Soviets and the US all got their tech from the Nazi Germans.

Its silly, there has been a lot of development outside of the initial start point.

And what do Ballistic missiles have to do with all the other missiles Turkey has developed?

I'm saying,you've used a lot of systems you've bought,in order to make your own stuff. And my initial argument was that the British and Germans are naive to trust Turkey,when Turkey has become a competitor and is not part of the EU.

 

[hyperman]

I'm saying,you've used a lot of systems you've bought,in order to make your own stuff. And my initial argument was that the British and Germans are naive to trust Turkey,when Turkey has become a competitor and is not part of the EU.

Make own stuff how? None of those products are copied, they are developed through R&D. In many cases they Exceed Western European products, Turkish drones are a prime example, to the point where now sales are going the other way, Italy wants to buy Baykar drones produced in Italy potentially.

Turkey has no beef with the UK, Italy, Spain or Germany. Why should they hurt their own interests for Greece? Maybe they should kick Greece out and have Turkey part of the EU instead. Turkey has more to offer than Greece.

Since this EU expansion eastwards, all these little minnows do is hurt and block the interests of Large Western EU states while at the same time contributing nothing, they just get EU welfare checks. They don't have large economies, they don't have tech, no army, no workforce. Just free loaders who block the interests of Larger EU states, like what Orban is doing right now.

 

[Foinikas]

Turkey has no beef with the UK, Italy, Spain or Germany. Why should they hurt their own interests for Greece? Maybe they should kick Greece out and have Turkey part of the EU instead. Turkey has more to offer than Greece.

It doesn't make sense,because helping Turkey by selling weapons and technology,eventually makes Turkey even more competitive. What are their interests? Getting some billions of euros from sales to Turkey and going along with Erdogan's Imperialist plans? We're supposed to be the EU,yet Germans and Italians only talk about unity and defence when Russia appears.

 

[Eşbah]

I wouldn't look too deep into it, he has said something similar before, its more along the lines of the Govt doesn't have it on its foreign policy agenda, essentially they are not going to try to weaponize the issue in foreign policy against Turkey. The Diaspora though is another issue, but the govt itself with stay out of spats.

He wants to get the border opened for Trade, so he doesn't want to unnecessarily try to pick fights. He has learned from past mistakes with regards to needlessly involving himself in Drama with Turkey for Domestic rabble rousing.

I'd say things are progressing positively with Turkey Armenia reconciliation efforts, there is positive news on the peace treaty matter with Azerbaijan, which have been probably the biggest impediment to Normalization.

He should ratify the Zurich Protocols, its a good basis for fixing Armenia Turkey relations.

Zurich Protocols - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

If my memory serves me right, he was a strong supporter of an anti-Turkish foreign policy not too long ago, despite Foinikas' belief that Pashinyan is a undercover Turkish agent from day one.

However, his perspective has shifted since he took on the role of prime minister, and so has his stance. I trust his assertion that Armenia seeks a positive relationship with Türkiye. His critique of the diaspora is both sincere and refreshing IMO.

It is time for Azerbaijan to end this conflict and start developing the country properly. I assume that Armenia has given up its opposition on the Zengezur corridor.

 

[Eşbah]

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[hyperman]

If my memory serves me right, he was a strong supporter of an anti-Turkish foreign policy not too long ago, despite Foinikas' belief that Pashinyan is a undercover Turkish agent from day one.

However, his perspective has shifted since he took on the role of prime minister, and so has his stance. I trust his assertion that Armenia seeks a positive relationship with Türkiye. His critique of the diaspora is both sincere and refreshing IMO.

It is time for Azerbaijan to end this conflict and start developing the country properly. I assume that Armenia has given up its opposition on the Zengezur corridor.

He is an interesting person, he actually was not hostile towards Turkey before he became prime minister, so when he got elected there was some optimism that he would be a change from the Karabakh Mafia running Armenia(Serz and Kocharyan). But when he came into power he did the opposite, he was very antagonistic, he went to karabakh and declared "Karabakh is Armenia Period!" then he started becoming antagonistic towards Turkey even and started making himself involved in the east Mediterranean dispute Turkey was having with Greece, Started talking about Sevres and other things, which annoyed Turkey, then there was an incident where an Azeri General was killed by Armenia, after which it essentially triggered the war.

After the War his tune has changed significant, now he is acting more rationally and reasonably with regards to Turkey.

I don't think Armenia will Agree to the Zangezur Corridor, they have agreed to a road and rail line, but with technicalities like customs, thats where the disagreement is. Azerbaijan wants no customs checks and no interaction with Armenian officials in the transport route, while Armenia says if that happens, they would be "losing sovereignty".

So that element has been stuck, but the progress has been made in that both sides have agreed that they will remove this element from the Treaty, so the treaty is not dependent on Armenia giving a Corridor. It is something that will be negotiated separately. The main thing remaining after that is a disagreement over an amendment to Armenia's constitution which makes territorial claims on Karabakh, The main issues there isn't with Pashinyan, so agreed there should be no claims by either country on either's territoiry the main thing is having 2/3 control of legislature and referendum to change the constitution which is difficult for Pashinyan to do as the opposition hates him and doesn't want any deal but wants a war to take back Karabakh. Azerbaijan before was insisting that the constitution remove the language about the territorial claim before any signing, but I think that may have been resolved where they agree to sign the deal before and Armenia promises to change later, but the details are murky and conflicting things have come out after the statement was made that negotiations have concluded on the peace treaty.

 

[Qaraca]

He is an interesting person, he actually was not hostile towards Turkey before he became prime minister, so when he got elected there was some optimism that he would be a change from the Karabakh Mafia running Armenia(Serz and Kocharyan). But when he came into power he did the opposite, he was very antagonistic, he went to karabakh and declared "Karabakh is Armenia Period!" then he started becoming antagonistic towards Turkey even and started making himself involved in the east Mediterranean dispute Turkey was having with Greece, Started talking about Sevres and other things, which annoyed Turkey, then there was an incident where an Azeri General was killed by Armenia, after which it essentially triggered the war.

After the War his tune has changed significant, now he is acting more rationally and reasonably with regards to Turkey.

I don't think Armenia will Agree to the Zangezur Corridor, they have agreed to a road and rail line, but with technicalities like customs, thats where the disagreement is. Azerbaijan wants no customs checks and no interaction with Armenian officials in the transport route, while Armenia says if that happens, they would be "losing sovereignty".

So that element has been stuck, but the progress has been made in that both sides have agreed that they will remove this element from the Treaty, so the treaty is not dependent on Armenia giving a Corridor. It is something that will be negotiated separately. The main thing remaining after that is a disagreement over an amendment to Armenia's constitution which makes territorial claims on Karabakh, The main issues there isn't with Pashinyan, so agreed there should be no claims by either country on either's territoiry the main thing is having 2/3 control of legislature and referendum to change the constitution which is difficult for Pashinyan to do as the opposition hates him and doesn't want any deal but wants a war to take back Karabakh. Azerbaijan before was insisting that the constitution remove the language about the territorial claim before any signing, but I think that may have been resolved where they agree to sign the deal before and Armenia promises to change later, but the details are murky and conflicting things have come out after the statement was made that negotiations have concluded on the peace treaty.

Armenian delusion should not be underestimated, but that would be the end for Armenia as a state. So let the “opposition” do that. Bize göre hava hoş.

 

[hyperman]

It doesn't make sense,because helping Turkey by selling weapons and technology,eventually makes Turkey even more competitive. What are their interests? Getting some billions of euros from sales to Turkey and going along with Erdogan's Imperialist plans? We're supposed to be the EU,yet Germans and Italians only talk about unity and defence when Russia appears.

Yes, Weapons sales are significant. Europe is not a monolith, countries like Spain and Italy see Turkey as a strategic partner to codevelop and even buy weapons from Turkey. As you are seeing with the Hurjet(Spain wants to Buy) and the Baykar drones(Italy wants to Buy).

The list of Defense Items that Europe overall sells, frankly there isn't much that Europe Sells that Turkey can't make itself or buy from Elsewhere.

That list is dwindling ever day, at this point the only thing left is stuff like Nuclear Submarines(They will not sell), Turbomeca/Safran engines(which again Turkey is very close to having its own equivalents with TEI, and Turkey never really ever bought Turbomeca, preferring to get GE engines instead), Submarine engines from MTU(This is perhaps the biggest thing Turkey still buys and is dependent on) and the A-400s.

Everything else Turkey can build itself, more or less.

 

[Foinikas]

Yes, Weapons sales are significant. Europe is not a monolith, countries like Spain and Italy see Turkey as a strategic partner to codevelop and even buy weapons from Turkey. As you are seeing with the Hurjet(Spain wants to Buy) and the Baykar drones(Italy wants to Buy).

The list of Defense Items that Europe overall sells, frankly there isn't much that Europe Sells that Turkey can't make itself or buy from Elsewhere.

That list is dwindling ever day, at this point the only thing left is stuff like Nuclear Submarines(They will not sell), Turbomeca/Safran engines(which again Turkey is very close to having its own equivalents with TEI, and Turkey never really ever bought Turbomeca, preferring to get GE engines instead), Submarine engines from MTU(This is perhaps the biggest thing Turkey still buys and is dependent on) and the A-400s.

Everything else Turkey can build itself, more or less.

Sorry for this

EKTAKTO: Αποκλείστηκε η Τουρκία από τα 150 δις του ReArm Europe, πέρασαν οι ελληνογαλλικές θέσεις - Πτήση

Σε μια σημαντική εξέλιξη για την ευρωπαϊκή αμυντική πολιτική, η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση αποφάσισε να αποκλείσει τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο και την Τουρκία από το ταμείο επανεξοπλισμού ύψους 150 δισεκατομμυρίων ευρώ, σύμφωνα με δημοσίευμα των Financial Times. Αυτή η απόφαση σηματοδοτεί...

flight.com.gr

In a major development for European defense policy, the European Union has decided to exclude the United States, the United Kingdom and Turkey from a €150 billion rearmament fund, the Financial Times reported. The decision marks a clear shift towards greater European defense autonomy and is a victory for the “Buy European” approach, which France strongly supports.

The initiative is part of the EU’s broader effort to boost its defense capabilities, particularly in the face of growing uncertainty about the US commitment to European security and geopolitical tensions over Russia. The €150 billion fund is intended to finance the purchase of arms and military equipment, with the aim of strengthening Europe’s defense industry and reducing dependence on third countries.

However, the decision to exclude the US, UK and Turkey from the process will provoke strong reactions and highlight the differences in priorities between EU member states and their traditional allies. It should be noted that Israel was not excluded, so the way is likely to be opened for Israeli weapons through the ReArm Fund.

According to the terms of the fund, at least 65% of the value of the weapons must be “domestic” – that is, produced within the EU, as well as by Norway and Ukraine, ensuring that the benefits remain largely within the European ecosystem. Alternatively, the countries excluded will have to conclude defense agreements with the EU in order to be eligible for funding. Systems where a third country imposes “use and manufacturing control” are also excluded.

Here it should be said that IAI, the main manufacturer of Israeli weapons systems, has invested almost 80 million euros in the Greek Intracom Defense.

The exclusion of the US, the UK and Turkey was not unexpected, given the recent tensions. The US, although a key partner of European countries through NATO, has raised concerns with the Trump administration’s controversial stance towards the alliance and European security. The UK, after Brexit, is no longer part of the EU and has lost direct access to such initiatives, despite its close cooperation with European countries in the defense sector. As for Turkey, its tense relations with the EU, particularly on issues such as Cyprus, put it outside the scope of this funding, unless it signs a special defense agreement with the Union.

This decision is expected to complicate relations with the excluded countries, especially the United Kingdom and Turkey, which have significant defense industries and are integrated into European supply chains. At the same time, some EU member states, such as Germany and Sweden, have expressed reservations, arguing that excluding allies such as the United States and the United Kingdom could harm overall defense cooperation at a time when speed in enhancing capabilities is crucial.

Time will tell whether this strategy will manage to balance the need for speed with the pursuit of self-reliance in an increasingly uncertain world.

 

[Davey Crockett]

All Hell Breaks Loose In Turkey: Arrest Of Erdogan's Top Opponent Sends Lira Crashing To Record Low, Triggers Marketwide Trading Halt​

In a voice message shared by his team, Imamoglu denounced his detention, accusing authorities of weaponizing the police. His party has called the charges baseless and politically motivated.

The moves are part of a broader pressure campaign by the leader of the NATO country against opposition figures, activists, and critical voices. Imamoglu’s detention follows the arrest in January of Umit Ozdag, the leader of a small nationalist party and a vocal critic of Erdogan. Investigations have also ensnared national politicians, journalists, and even a celebrity agent earlier this year. Former Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas has been imprisoned for years.

The next presidential election is officially set for 2028. For a chance at extending more than two decades in power, as prime minister and then president, Erdogan would need to secure enough parliamentary support to change the constitution or call for a snap election.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Foinikas]

View attachment 108965

All Hell Breaks Loose In Turkey: Arrest Of Erdogan's Top Opponent Sends Lira Crashing To Record Low, Triggers Marketwide Trading Halt​

In a voice message shared by his team, Imamoglu denounced his detention, accusing authorities of weaponizing the police. His party has called the charges baseless and politically motivated.

The moves are part of a broader pressure campaign by the leader of the NATO country against opposition figures, activists, and critical voices. Imamoglu’s detention follows the arrest in January of Umit Ozdag, the leader of a small nationalist party and a vocal critic of Erdogan. Investigations have also ensnared national politicians, journalists, and even a celebrity agent earlier this year. Former Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas has been imprisoned for years.

The next presidential election is officially set for 2028. For a chance at extending more than two decades in power, as prime minister and then president, Erdogan would need to secure enough parliamentary support to change the constitution or call for a snap election.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Every time a strong opponent appears,Erdogan somehow accuses him of something and arrests him.

 

[hyperman]

Sorry for this

EKTAKTO: Αποκλείστηκε η Τουρκία από τα 150 δις του ReArm Europe, πέρασαν οι ελληνογαλλικές θέσεις - Πτήση

Σε μια σημαντική εξέλιξη για την ευρωπαϊκή αμυντική πολιτική, η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση αποφάσισε να αποκλείσει τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο και την Τουρκία από το ταμείο επανεξοπλισμού ύψους 150 δισεκατομμυρίων ευρώ, σύμφωνα με δημοσίευμα των Financial Times. Αυτή η απόφαση σηματοδοτεί...

flight.com.gr

In a major development for European defense policy, the European Union has decided to exclude the United States, the United Kingdom and Turkey from a €150 billion rearmament fund, the Financial Times reported. The decision marks a clear shift towards greater European defense autonomy and is a victory for the “Buy European” approach, which France strongly supports.

The initiative is part of the EU’s broader effort to boost its defense capabilities, particularly in the face of growing uncertainty about the US commitment to European security and geopolitical tensions over Russia. The €150 billion fund is intended to finance the purchase of arms and military equipment, with the aim of strengthening Europe’s defense industry and reducing dependence on third countries.

However, the decision to exclude the US, UK and Turkey from the process will provoke strong reactions and highlight the differences in priorities between EU member states and their traditional allies. It should be noted that Israel was not excluded, so the way is likely to be opened for Israeli weapons through the ReArm Fund.

According to the terms of the fund, at least 65% of the value of the weapons must be “domestic” – that is, produced within the EU, as well as by Norway and Ukraine, ensuring that the benefits remain largely within the European ecosystem. Alternatively, the countries excluded will have to conclude defense agreements with the EU in order to be eligible for funding. Systems where a third country imposes “use and manufacturing control” are also excluded.

Here it should be said that IAI, the main manufacturer of Israeli weapons systems, has invested almost 80 million euros in the Greek Intracom Defense.

The exclusion of the US, the UK and Turkey was not unexpected, given the recent tensions. The US, although a key partner of European countries through NATO, has raised concerns with the Trump administration’s controversial stance towards the alliance and European security. The UK, after Brexit, is no longer part of the EU and has lost direct access to such initiatives, despite its close cooperation with European countries in the defense sector. As for Turkey, its tense relations with the EU, particularly on issues such as Cyprus, put it outside the scope of this funding, unless it signs a special defense agreement with the Union.

This decision is expected to complicate relations with the excluded countries, especially the United Kingdom and Turkey, which have significant defense industries and are integrated into European supply chains. At the same time, some EU member states, such as Germany and Sweden, have expressed reservations, arguing that excluding allies such as the United States and the United Kingdom could harm overall defense cooperation at a time when speed in enhancing capabilities is crucial.

Time will tell whether this strategy will manage to balance the need for speed with the pursuit of self-reliance in an increasingly uncertain world.


View attachment 108955

Its to be expected, although I didn't expect them to exclude the UK. Not too big of a deal, it limits Turkey's ability to sell weapons to Europe directly, while getting paid from the Fund, but does not stop it.

For example, the Baykar drones being produced in Italy by a Baykar Subsidiary would be allowed to sell equipment from there as its a product produced in Italy, but the revenue would go to Baykar.

Similarly many subsidies of Turkish companies can be formed in Friendly EU states. For example Hungary which does not have a domestic defense industry and would be eager for investment by Turkey.

Not sure this is enough for you to gloat and post pictures. lol

Btw, the agreement allows for external countries to be allowed to use the fund if they reach a defense agreement with the EU, of course that could also be blocked by Greece, but that remains to be seen.

Ultimately I don't think its too much of a big deal. B/c the Defense market is wide, even outside of the EU, from Africa, MENA, to Asia. In terms of production capacity and cost I think Turkey still has most European countries beat in this regard.