Türkiye - Azerbaijan | Strategic Partnership, Regional Alliance, Military Cooperation - News & Updates

[hyperman]

Nahçıvan loses its autonomy status.

Nakhchivan loses autonomy in new constitutional amendments

Amendments to the Constitution of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic were prepared in June last year.

oc-media.org

This doesn't appear to be much on the surface, but this is significant. especially in light of recent events.

Not really sure what to make of it, but Turkey has also been removed as Guarantor over Nakhchivan. But I think that has more to do with removing the reference to the Kars treaty between Russia and Turkey, that defined the autonomy.

 

[Eşbah]

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[Eşbah]

Russia has threatened Armenia with an invasion if they continue to seek EU membership.

 

[Eşbah]

Pashinyan says Karabakh 'was not ours' as Armenia and Azerbaijan look to future

 

[hyperman]

Pashinyan says Karabakh 'was not ours' as Armenia and Azerbaijan look to future

They are losing their minds. lol

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[Ali_Baba]

Russia has threatened Armenia with an invasion if they continue to seek EU membership.

Lo. Well the last Russian invasion went so well right?

 

[hyperman]

Lo. Well the last Russian invasion went so well right?

This one is a little different, it would be more akin to the Georgian invasion depending on what Putin does. The countries are much smaller.

 

[Eşbah]

He keeps threatening

Vladimir Putin eyes invasion of Armenia in new Victory Day speech

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has warned Armenia that Moscow would reconsider bilateral relations if Yerevan pursues EU membership

www.the-express.com

This would be not in the best interest of Turkey.

 

[hyperman]

He keeps threatening

Vladimir Putin eyes invasion of Armenia in new Victory Day speech

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has warned Armenia that Moscow would reconsider bilateral relations if Yerevan pursues EU membership

www.the-express.com

This would be not in the best interest of Turkey.

For him to do this, would require an invasion through Georgia or Azerbaijan. I don't see it happening in the near term, Moscow has good relations with the current Georgian govt and a largely working relationship with Azerbaijan

 

[Eşbah]

For him to do this, would require an invasion through Georgia or Azerbaijan. I don't see it happening in the near term, Moscow has good relations with the current Georgian govt and a largely working relationship with Azerbaijan

There're already Russian soldiers in Armenia and parts of the Armenian Armed Frorces are pro-Russian.

Meanwhile...

Turkey removes a restriction on direct trade with Armenia to improve ties

Turkey has lifted a restriction on direct trade with Armenia in a symbolic step toward improved relations.

apnews.com

 

[hyperman]

There're already Russian soldiers in Armenia and parts of the Armenian Armed Frorces are pro-Russian.

Meanwhile...

Turkey removes a restriction on direct trade with Armenia to improve ties

Turkey has lifted a restriction on direct trade with Armenia in a symbolic step toward improved relations.

apnews.com

4,000 troops isn't enough for them to take over Armenia.

Pashinyan to his credit purged the former regime from the intelligence and security apparatus. Armenia's current Intelligence Chief was trained by the CIA, specifically for counter coup situations. Pashinyan came in and after the war dissolved the old intelligence service and created a new intelligence service, so he should in theory be insulated from coups.

Armenia’s First Foreign Intelligence Chief Named After ‘Training’

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has appointed Armenia’s former human rights ombudswoman, Kristine Grigorian, as the first head of a foreign intelligence agency formally set up by his government about a year ago.

www.azatutyun.am

Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service Seeks to Further Detract Power from the NSS - Oragark

Armenia’s newly established Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) is seeking direct access to state secrets, a move that could further reduce the powers of the National

www.oragark.com

 

[Eşbah]

4,000 troops isn't enough for them to take over Armenia.

Pashinyan to his credit purged the former regime from the intelligence and security apparatus. Armenia's current Intelligence Chief was trained by the CIA, specifically for counter coup situations. Pashinyan came in and after the war dissolved the old intelligence service and created a new intelligence service, so he should in theory be insulated from coups.

Armenia’s First Foreign Intelligence Chief Named After ‘Training’

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has appointed Armenia’s former human rights ombudswoman, Kristine Grigorian, as the first head of a foreign intelligence agency formally set up by his government about a year ago.

www.azatutyun.am

Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service Seeks to Further Detract Power from the NSS - Oragark

Armenia’s newly established Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) is seeking direct access to state secrets, a move that could further reduce the powers of the National

www.oragark.com

In theory 4k soldiers are enough to take over Erivan. The church is also heavily pro Russian and there's still a significant minority of the population [~40%] that is preferring Russia over Europe. They still do have the manpower on the ground to trigger unrest if not a partial civil war in Armenia.

 

[hyperman]

In theory 4k soldiers are enough to take over Erivan. The church is also heavily pro Russian and there's still a significant minority of the population [~40%] that is preferring Russia over Europe. They still do have the manpower on the ground to trigger unrest if not a partial civil war in Armenia.

The Pro Russian party is barely breaking 10% right now in polling. In the Last election it was 20-25%, Russian power is eroding. They tried the coup attempt via the church, but the movement fizzled out.

2024 Armenian protests - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I would be very surprised if the Kremlin launched a coup attempt right now, they have been purged from the military and intelligence apparatus, and the Russians were removed for ports of entry and airports, in essence the only role they have is on the Turkish border, and there are rumors that they were removed from the Iranian border.

The EPC meeting was held in Yerevan a few days ago, and Macron gave a speech calling for the expulsion of Russian troops from Armenia.

8th European Political Community Summit - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And Pashinyan was holding meetings with Zelensky in Armenia.

At this point, I don't know if Russia has capacity to launch anything.

 

[Eşbah]

The Pro Russian party is barely breaking 10% right now in polling. In the Last election it was 20-25%, Russian power is eroding. They tried the coup attempt via the church, but the movement fizzled out.

2024 Armenian protests - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I would be very surprised if the Kremlin launched a coup attempt right now, they have been purged from the military and intelligence apparatus, and the Russians were removed for ports of entry and airports, in essence the only role they have is on the Turkish border, and there are rumors that they were removed from the Iranian border.

The EPC meeting was held in Yerevan a few days ago, and Macron gave a speech calling for the expulsion of Russian troops from Armenia.

8th European Political Community Summit - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And Pashinyan was holding meetings with Zelensky in Armenia.

At this point, I don't know if Russia has capacity to launch anything.

Depending on the survey and how you frame your inquiry, around 40% of the populace still prefers not to completely sever ties with Russia. The legacy of decades of Soviet rule doesn't simply vanish, I suppose. The core concern isn't if Russia is capable of executing a full-scale invasion, but rather if it can conduct an operation that would destabilize Armenia enough to halt its progress towards the EU and NATO indefinitely. I am convinced that the Russians still possess this capability. The real question is whether they are prepared to assert their influence at this moment.

But they do work on some sort of punishment in the background

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Russian parliament passes bill allowing Putin to invade foreign countries

The new measure arrives amid fears the Kremlin might be ready to test the West’s commitment to NATO.

www.politico.eu

 

[PakAl]

Russia is a declining power, they have lost Armenia to EU.