United States elections 2024


2 hours ago -Politics & Policy

The dread election: Share of "double haters" hits historic high​

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Share of Americans who say they have unfavorable views of both major party presidential candidates​

In May/June of election year; 2024 survey of 8,638 U.S. adults conducted May 13-19
The table shows the views of major party candidates in May/June of each presidential election year from 1988 to 2024. In 2024, 25% of Americans have unfavorable views of both major party candidates, which is nearly twice as much who said they did in 2020.
Table with 3 columns and 10 rows.
Share with unfavorable viewsParty candidates
202425%
25%
25%		Trump
Biden
202013%
13%
13%		Trump
Biden
201620%
20%
20%		Trump
Clinton
201211%
11%
11%		Romney
Obama
200813%
13%
13%		McCain
Obama
20046%
6%
6%		G.W. Bush
Kerry
20006%
6%
6%		G.W. Bush
Gore
19969%
9%
9%		Dole
Clinton
199213%
13%
13%		H.W. Bush
Clinton
19885%
5%
5%		H.W. Bush
Dukakis

Data: Pew Research Center; Note: 1988-1996, 2004-2012 and 2024 data is from Pew Research Center. For 2000, data is from Gallup/CNN: 2016-2020 data from ABC/Washington Post. Gallup/CNN and ABC/Washington Post data is provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research; Table: Axios Visuals
A quarter of Americans hold unfavorable views of both President Biden and former President Trump — the highest share of "double haters" at this stage in any of the last 10 elections, according to new Pew Research data.
Why it matters: The closely watched bloc has nearly doubled in size since 2020, making this fall's Trump vs. Biden rematch the most dreaded election in modern political history.
The big picture: Top strategists say the race is likely to be decided by 6% of voters in six swing states. Many of them will hold their nose and pick a candidate they dislike in November.
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claims to be on the ballot in several of those states, offering a third-party option that both the Biden and Trump campaigns are scrambling to neutralize.
  • Whichever candidate can mobilize more "double haters" to back them in November could have a decisive advantage in the Electoral College, given the razor-thin margins.
Zoom in: Trump has made inroads with Republican critics in recent weeks, using a visit to Capitol Hill — and a handshake with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — to showcase the GOP's post-primary unity.
  • Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose primary voters represent a huge cross-section of Trump-Biden skeptics, finally endorsed Trump last month.
  • A steady drumbeat of wealthy GOP donors who condemned Trump after Jan. 6 are once again getting out their checkbooks, unable to stomach a second Biden term.
Between the lines: 67% of "double haters" believe Trump should end his campaign in the wake of his felony conviction, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll.

  • The Biden campaign sees that and other polling data as evidence that the president will win over this critical bloc of voters by the time Nov. 5 arrives.
  • "They may dislike both candidates, but the intensity on Trump's negative is higher," Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock told Axios. "A campaign that has the resources to persuade those individuals has some advantage."
The bottom line: Between 1988 and 2012, at least one of the major party nominees had a favorability rating over 50%. Both Trump and Biden will be lucky to draw much higher than 40% by the time they're nominated this summer.
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Any political writers discussing the possibility this year's Presidential election gets decided by the US House of Representatives?

What happens if the presidential election goes to the House of Representatives?


If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress. The House of Representatives elects the President from the three (3) Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes.

That's when the real fun will begin.
 
Has a president ever been chosen by the House of Representatives?


1824 presidential election

Four candidates received votes in the Electoral College in 1824, with no candidate attaining a majority. The House of Representative elected John Quincy Adams (left) even though Andrew Jackson (right) had won a plurality of both the electoral and popular votes in the original election.
 

If no one wins 270 Electoral College votes, what happens next?​


Amendment 12 of the United States Constitution creates a process called “contingent election” when no candidate wins a majority of the Electoral College. Why are we urging the House to begin consideration of procedures so many months before the election? Because if no candidate reaches a majority vote in the Electoral College, the House will have just three days to create rules between taking office and beginning a contingent election to choose the president.
 
Rather than voting individually, House members vote as state delegations. Each state delegation gets a single vote, and a candidate becomes president with the support of a majority (26) of state delegations. If no candidate wins 26 state delegations by January 20th, then the vice president-elect becomes acting president. And if the Senate fails to select a vice president, then under the Twentieth Amendment and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the next eligible person in the presidential line of succession (potentially the speaker of the House) becomes acting president.


I have no hesitation in saying that I have ever considered the constitutional mode of election, ultimately by the legislature voting by states, as the most dangerous blot in our constitution, and one which some unlucky chance will some day hit, and give us a pope and antipope.”

THOMAS JEFFERSON

Thomas Jefferson is correct.
 
Davey Crockett said:
Rather than voting individually, House members vote as state delegations. Each state delegation gets a single vote, and a candidate becomes president with the support of a majority (26) of state delegations. If no candidate wins 26 state delegations by January 20th, then the vice president-elect becomes acting president. And if the Senate fails to select a vice president, then under the Twentieth Amendment and the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the next eligible person in the presidential line of succession (potentially the speaker of the House) becomes acting president.


I have no hesitation in saying that I have ever considered the constitutional mode of election, ultimately by the legislature voting by states, as the most dangerous blot in our constitution, and one which some unlucky chance will some day hit, and give us a pope and antipope.”

THOMAS JEFFERSON

Thomas Jefferson is correct.
Click to expand...
The odds of that "unlucky chance" is low in 2024. In 2028, a very real possibility to keep in mind.
 
Looks pretty even between Red and Blue states. If the presidential election goes to the House of Representatives it may not be decided on the first vote.

And can anyone see the US Congress agreeing on the rules in three days?

Without going into much more detail, we are looking at a major clusterfuck if neither Biden or Trump gets the majority of the Electorial College on Election Day.

Again, odds of this happening is very low. But this year, anything is possible. Should it happen, some of you here already know the basics.
 
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