United States elections 2024
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Biden’s RECKLESS new scheme EXPOSED!!
Yommie
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Trump lashes out at Fox News over latest poll: ‘TRASH!’
BY NICK ROBERTSON - 06/20/24 1:38 PM ETSHAREPOST
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Former President Trump blasted Fox News on Thursday after the network published a poll showing him trailing President Biden nationally for the first time this year.
The poll found that 50 percent of respondents said they would vote for Biden in November, while 48 percent said they would back Trump. It’s a 3-point improvement for Biden over last month’s Fox News poll, when Trump led by 1 point.
“The latest Fox News poll is TRASH!” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “They used a biased, Democrat-leaning sample of voters, polling more Biden 2020 voters than Trump 2020 voters to skew the results in favor of Crooked Joe.”
“I am leading BIG in virtually every other poll, including in all of the key battleground states, like Wisconsin, where I just held a massive rally, and Pennsylvania, where I will be on Saturday,” he continued.
“Fox News polls have never treated me, or MAGA, fairly! Don’t worry, we will WIN!!!” he added. “Fox News should get rid of Paul Ryan, and get a new Pollster, but they won’t….”
Wednesday’s poll marks the first time Biden has cracked 50 percent support this election cycle, and the first time he has led Trump in a Fox poll since October.
When third-party candidates are included in the poll, Biden leads Trump by 1 point, 43 percent to 42 percent. Independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West received 10 percent and 2 percent support, respectively, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 2 percent support. In May’s poll of the field, Trump led by 3 points.
Among one of the race’s most critical demographics, independent voters, Biden leads Trump by 9 points. That’s an 11-point shift from May, when they favored Trump by 2 points.
“The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducted the survey. “Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans.”
An Emerson College/The Hill poll published Thursday found Trump with an edge over Biden in swing states, including 4 points over Biden in Arizona and Georgia, 3 points up in Wisconsin and Nevada, and 2 points up in Pennsylvania. In Michigan, Trump leads by 1 point, and the pair are even in Minnesota.
Yommie
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Biden’s Lead With Women Is Smaller Than Trump’s With Men, a Warning for Democrats
A new poll of female voters finds that concerns about inflation are still paramount, even as abortion could motivate Democratic women in states where the issue is on the ballot.
Yommie
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A new Fox poll has Biden up. Fox’s prime-time hosts didn’t mention it.
When the new numbers did merit coverage, it was often with caveats.
Analysis by Philip Bump
National columnist
June 20, 2024 at 10:56 a.m. EDT
A still from the “Jesse Watters Primetime” episode that aired Wednesday. (Fox News)
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When Fox News has new polling, it often gives evening news host Bret Baier the honor of unveiling them. So on Wednesday evening, Baier opened his show with new numbers from the channel’s well-regarded pollsters.
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“Good evening. I’m Bret Baier,” he began. “We are releasing new Fox polls right now about the presidential race. President Biden gets his best result this election cycle in the head-to-head against former president Donald Trump. He leads 50 to 48. That is within the margin of error.”
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Baier went on to show the recent trend in Fox’s polling, from a five-point Trump lead in March to a one-point lead last month.
“Again,” he reiterated, “all within the margin of error. A very tight race.”
True. Fair. The trend since March has favored Biden, but the difference between Trump leading by one point in May and trailing by two in June is not itself significant. It is a very tight race — maybe slightly tighter than a few weeks ago, but otherwise consistently close.
The result, though, was the first time Biden had led in Fox’s polling since October. That is not news that most Fox News viewers, a group that skews Republican and heavily pro-Trump, is interested in hearing. So, for the rest of the evening, Fox News didn’t talk about it much.
Baier also had other stuff to get to before digging into the findings. He transitioned from a report about the poll into a story about a violent attack in New York City allegedly committed by an immigrant in the country illegally — the sort of story that comports entirely with Trump’s campaign strategy.
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At the end of his hour, he welcomed several panelists on to discuss the poll numbers. One panelists touted the findings as good news for Biden. Another, the Washington Times’s Charles Hurt, shrugged at the finding that Americans were motivated by the perceived threat to democracy.
“At the end of the day, these elections usually don’t turn on amorphous things like the future of democracy,” he said. “Elections turn on things that really matter,” like the economy and the border — issues where Trump has more of an advantage.
The show before Baier’s is “The Five,” a chatty opinion show that generally noodles over whatever culture war issue is animating the right in the moment. On Wednesday’s episode, that meant discussing reporting from Axios in which Democratic consultants fretted about Biden’s positioning.
Co-host Jesse Watters figured he knew why.
“If you look at polling, polling doesn’t change around June,” he claimed. “It usually locks in right about now. [They] must be freaking out.”
That isn’t true; there are often shifts in polling in the final months of a race. Less than an hour later, of course, Fox News was about to offer evidence of such a shift. About three hours later, on Watter’s own show, he didn’t mention the new Fox News data. Instead, he ran a segment about how Democrats and the left were in denial about recent polling.
On Laura Ingraham’s show, which aired right after Baier’s, there was similarly no mention of the poll — save for a comment from guest Byron York about one of the other questions it included. On “Gutfeld!,” the channel’s putative late-night comedy show, host Greg Gutfeld mentioned polling only to make a joke about recent data from CBS News.
Fox News’s homepage had an interesting spin Wednesday morning. The summary indicated that “Biden snaps year-long streak” — adding that this came “as Trump gets good news from new voters.” When Trump had that big lead in March, the homepage also presented it as good news for Trump: “Key group of voters abandons Biden for Trump in major reversal of 2020, poll finds.”
Fox’s flagship morning show did bring up the poll Thursday morning. “Fox & Friends” host Steve Doocy introduced it in the 6 a.m. hour, calling it “big.” A reporter outlined the findings, again emphasizing the margin of error and the underlying questions that were better for Trump.
Host Brian Kilmeade suggested to viewers that the overall shift was unimportant and that “most would say” that the details of individual polls are more important. Co-host Lawrence Jones, meanwhile, offered praise for Trump’s inclusion of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) on his debate prep team since Rubio “goes on all the other channels and just goes into the enemy’s camp.” (If the other channels are Republicans’ enemies, then what is Fox?)
In the 7 a.m. hour, “Fox & Friends” opened by talking about the poll again — but focusing on the numbers on the economy.
“Only about a third of you think the economy right now is good or excellent,” Doocy said. “Two-thirds say it’s fair or poor — and something like that is not good for the current president.”
Half an hour later, co-host Ainsley Earhardt interviewed one of the pollsters.
“I think we’re seeing a little bit of a shift,” Lee Carter said. “This isn’t anything seismic.” She pointed to movement among independents, noting improvement in Biden’s numbers on the economy.
Again, that framing is accurate and fair. It was also not given much airtime on the channel that sponsored the poll.
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Opinion | Trump’s dominance with an unpredictable type of voter should ring alarm bells for Biden
Trump is showing a lot of strength with a voting demographic that Biden should be winning.
www.msnbc.com
Less engaged voters are leaning toward Trump. That could spell disaster in swing states.
Trump is showing a lot of strength with a voting demographic that Biden should be winning.June 20, 2024, 12:10 PM EDT
By Zeeshan Aleem, MSNBC Opinion Writer/Editor
Conventional wisdom in modern American politics dictates that Democrats benefit the most from mobilizing voters who are checked out of the political system. But a recent analysis of polling from the last couple of election cycles suggests that the opposite might be true in 2024: It could be former President Donald Trump, not President Joe Biden, who will benefit most from getting disengaged voters to turn out.
Drawing from Siena College / New York Times polling data of primary and midterm voters over the past year, the Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn finds that while Biden leads among more regular voters, Trump leads among the rest of the electorate, i.e. more sporadic voters. When you put it all together, it means that if everyone who is registered to vote did vote, Trump would win.
Biden’s central campaign narrative that Trump poses an existential threat to democracy faces some big limitations with this set of voters.
Biden’s camp should take note. Less regular voters are a useful proxy for swing voters, who tend to be less plugged into politics, less ideologically predictable and have less faith in the party system. So even though less regular voters are, by definition, less likely to show up than regular voters at the polls, there are more of them and their preference could still define the outcome of battleground states in which Trump and Biden are competing neck and neck. And with Trump already often outperforming Biden in national polls and swing states, it's crucial that Biden breaks through with this group.
The Times’ analysis breaks down a bunch of different measures for regular voters, including people who voted in the 2024 primaries, the 2022 midterms but not the primaries, people who voted only in the 2020 presidential election, and people who voted in none of those contests. What it finds is that while Biden’s vote share is the largest among people who have voted in the 2024 primaries, his vote share reduces the further back you go — that is, the less engaged the voter is. By contrast, Trump’s vote share stays pretty constant among more regular and less regular voters — and surges among people who have no voting record at all. While Biden has a 5 point lead among the most engaged voters (those who voted in the primaries this year), he trails Trump by 14 points among people who have no voting record. Voters with no recent voting history might sound like they’re not a threat to Biden, but consider that many of them could be young first-time voters.
Less engaged and infrequent voters have some distinct features, Cohn notes:
Given that many swing voters are disengaged voters, it’s vital to pay attention to those preferences.
One takeaway here is that Biden’s central campaign narrative that Trump poses an existential threat to democracy faces some big limitations with this set of voters. Many disengaged voters — who disproportionately get their news from social media, according to the Times — are less likely to see Trump as harboring anti-democratic tendencies or do not find any such tendencies prohibitive. They’re more focused on the economic picture — which generally comes down to issues such as their perception of the prices of goods and services, and the health of the labor market. In particular, it's imperative that Biden makes it clear how he'll help Americans deal with the effects of cumulative inflation during his tenure.
“We find that swing voters are less politically engaged than the average likely voter, and when we ask them which policy actions would make them vote for Joe Biden, left-leaning economic policies, including raises taxes on the wealthy and raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour, rise to the top,” Ryan O’Donnell, deputy executive director at progressive think tank Data for Progress, told me.
“Biden’s economic agenda may not be breaking through to these disengaged voters, but teeing up a fight with Trump on tax fairness is one way to capture their attention on this issue and bring these voters back in,” he added.
If Biden were to trumpet new social programs that help reduce the cost of living, it could also help take the attention off another one of his weaknesses as underscored by the Times’ polling data — voters tend to view him as an agent of the status quo and expect only incremental change from him. Some of this might be due to “vibes” — Biden has been in Washington for decades, and his advanced age is hugely salient to voters. Right now, Trump has a stranglehold on the “sweeping change” energy that often appeals to ideologically uncommitted swing voters — even though the substance of Trump’s policies are largely terrible for working-class people.
In order to win on Election Day, Biden is going to have to both motivate the Democratic base to get fired up and also appeal to disengaged swing voters who often disapprove of both candidates. Right now, it’s safe to say he’s not doing a good enough job with exciting the latter camp.
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Trump Flips Out Over Devastating Fox News Poll
Fox News has some brutal news for Donald Trump this election—and he is not handling it well.
newrepublic.com
Hafiz Rashid/
June 20, 2024/11:51 a.m. ET
Trump Flips Out Over Devastating Fox News Poll
Fox News has some brutal news for Donald Trump this election—and he is not handling it well.
STEVEN HIRSCH/POOL/GETTY IMAGES
After a Fox News poll showed Joe Biden polling better than him, Donald Trump lost it on Truth Social Thursday morning.
“FoxNews Polls are always the worst for me. They have been from the beginning, and always will be!” Trump posted.
The poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by two points, 50–48 percent. It’s a change from last month’s Fox News poll, which had Trump ahead by one point.
The convicted felon and presumptive Republican presidential nominee has not been happy with Fox News in the last few days. On Wednesday, Trump bashed the network and called for Paul Ryan to be removed from its board of directors.
“Nobody can ever trust Fox News, and I am one of them, with the weak and ineffective RINO, Paul Ryan, on its Board of Directors,” Trump posted on Truth Social, clearly still smarting over the former House speaker calling him “unfit for office” on the network last week.
Trump doesn’t seem to be able to handle any criticism from the right-wing outlet, and it’s puzzling because it’s so rare. The network has been caught airing poorly edited interviews to make him look better, helped push his lie about an FBI assassination plot, and regularly covers up stories that make him look bad. That doesn’t even include its long history of Republican partisanship in favor of Trump, particularly in this coming election.
Maybe Trump was actually rattled by the poll. It’s not the only recent one with bad news from him: A Politico poll came out earlier this week showing that his felony conviction actually matters to Americans and makes it less likely that they would vote for him. If that is the case, bashing the network that has tirelessly been working to get him back in office won’t help him.
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