United States elections 2024

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June 23, 2024: Are the Presidential debates rigged?​

 

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4736410-biden-trump-young-voters/

Young voters backing Biden over Trump by 23-point margin: Poll​

BY LAUREN SFORZA - 06/24/24 8:10 AM ET

President Biden has a comfortable lead over former President Trump among voters younger than 30, according to a new poll.
The CBS News/YouGov poll found 61 percent of likely voters younger than 30 surveyed support Biden while 38 percent support Trump. These voters are more likely to say abortion, climate change, and race and diversity issues would impact their vote than those older than 30.

Fifty-seven percent of young voters said abortion is a major factor in their vote, 54 percent selected climate change, and 52 percent chose race and diversity. By comparison, half of those 30 and older said abortion was a major issue, 37 percent listed climate change and 36 percent picked race and diversity.

Most registered voters in this 18-29-year age group also said they approved of Biden canceling student loans, with 72 percent approving and 28 percent disapproving.
Additionally, nearly half of registered voters younger than 30 said neither candidate understands the needs and concerns of young people, with 26 percent saying only Biden does and 20 percent saying only Trump does.
However, only 66 percent of this group said they will vote in the 2024 election, while 94 percent of those 65 and older said they would vote.
The poll was conducted among 2,460 U.S. adults from June 17-21, including 743 in the 18-29-year age group. The margin of error for the total sample is 2.8 percentage points, and the margin of error for the 18-29 age group is 5.2 percentage points.
Both Biden and Trump have attempted to court young voters as concerns mount about their age. Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, are the two oldest major party candidates to run against each other.

A CBS News/YouGov poll released earlier this month found half of voters said Trump has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, while 35 percent said the same about Biden.

 

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https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-24/trump-is-leading-national-polls-ignore-them

Trump is Leading National Polls. Ignore Them.​

Pay attention to the battleground states. Biden needs the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to hold for him to win the White House.
By Albert R. Hunt | ContributorJune 24, 2024, at 5:55 p.m.

Trump is Leading Polls. Ignore Them.
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BORIS GRDANOSKI|AP
Silhouettes of people's heads are seen in front of an electoral U.S. map, displayed during an election night event organized by the U.S. embassy in Skopje, Macedonia, on Nov .7, 2012.
National polls suggest a slight lead for former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Ignore them.
If the race remains close, focus on the six or seven battleground states where Trump has a better hand. Remember there are independent and third-party candidates including anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who could be spoilers – and the outcome will be decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote.

President Joe Biden’s starting point, based on the outcome of the 2020 election, is 303 electoral votes (three fewer than he won last time, due to changes in the Electoral College based on the last census). That’s 33 more than the 270 needed to win the White House
Four-and-a-half months out, Biden is struggling in the Sunbelt states that he carried in 2020: Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, as well as red-but-maybe-purple North Carolina, where he was narrowly defeated by just one percentage point. If that doesn't change, Biden can't afford to lose any other state he won in 2020.
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The key to a Biden victory is the so-called "blue wall": Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Since 1992, these states skewed Democratic in every presidential election until 2016, when they all turned red, paving the way for the Trump upset over Hillary Clinton.
In those key states, Biden has to improve his sluggish standing with young voters and voters of color. Trump has to retain the advantage he had last time with white women, while also winning over Republicans and independents who voted this year for Nikki Haley in the primaries. Democrats want to focus on abortion, Republicans on immigration.
The record number of voters who dislike both candidates, the "double-haters," could be decisive.
Polls show Trump with a small lead in the "blue wall" states. Based on those and my own reporting, I believe Trump is ahead in Michigan, maybe a little behind in Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is a jump ball. The specifics:
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden won the Keystone State by 80,000 votes in 2020, after Trump eked out a 44,000-vote victory in 2016.
The temptation is to look at bellwether counties: Erie in northwestern Pennsylvania and Northampton in the eastern part of the state. But I think there are more instructive guides. Biden's big 2020 margin in Philadelphia is certain to shrink some, and it'll be hard to replicate the big voting surge he saw in Pittsburgh and Allegheny County as a whole.
Biden won last time because of the four populous Philadelphia suburbs – Montgomery, Chester, Delaware and Bucks – which cast more votes than Philadelphia and Pittsburgh combined. Once the heart of Republican country, they are fast-growing, more diverse, well-educated and socially progressive. Biden increased Hillary Clinton's winning margin by 104,471 votes – more than his statewide margin.
Democrats worry those numbers will be hard to match. However, there may be two energizing issues: guns (after a rash of mass shootings) and abortion. Ever since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade two years ago, Democrats have benefitted from voter anger over the rollback of abortion rights. In the 2022 U.S. Senate race, Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman, with his tattoos, hoodies and sneakers, was not exactly a candidate from central casting for the upscale suburbs. But with abortion front and center, Fetterman won those counties overwhelmingly.


MICHIGAN: Biden won Michigan more comfortably than Pennsylvania, but he has run into considerable headwinds. The Black vote that typically skews Democratic is expected to decline there, and Muslims who voted decisively for Biden last round are souring on him because of the Gaza war. Democrats doubt they can match turnout to repeat the 68% of the vote in Wayne County (home to Detroit) that Biden won in 2020.

Bill Ballenger, who writes a Michigan-focused political newsletter, says most indices favor the Republican candidate now. One small exception: There is "some evidence," he says, that Kennedy may be starting to siphon more votes from Trump.
Still, Biden is likely to win the state's second-largest county, suburban Oakland again, and, as in 2020, Trump should be stronger in more working-class Macomb County.
The top battleground may be Kent County, centered in Grand Rapids, long dominated by Republicans such as former President Gerald Ford. That county went for the Democrats four years ago. In a recent New York Times story, Kent county voters weren’t wild about a Trump-Biden rematch. The double-haters may be the deciders.
WISCONSIN: In the past two presidential elections, no state has been so closely contested as Wisconsin. Trump won it eight years ago; Biden took it in 2020 – both by less than a percentage point.
Democrats can't count on a big vote in Milwaukee with its sizable Black and Hispanic populations, who have been less enthusiastic about this election. The working-class city is hosting the GOP convention next month, ironic perhaps since Trump called the city “horrible.” Dane County, centered in Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin and the state capitol, casts more votes and is very liberal. Biden needs another impressive 2020-like vote in Dane.
Conversely, Republican margins are at stake in the conservative-leaning suburban counties like Waukesha. Trump won there last time, but his 2020 margin declined compared to 2016.

An intangible in this year's presidential race is that Wisconsin Democrats may be hungrier for the win. The Supreme Court rejected Republicans’ effort to gerrymander the state assembly, giving energized Democrats a chance to win control for the first time in 14 years. And the state Democratic party's chairman, Ben Wikler, is one of the most aggressive and innovative state chairs in the country.
If Biden wants to keep the "blue wall" blue again, he needs every edge he can get.

 

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