United States elections 2024

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Trump leads Harris nationally by 1 point: Poll​

BY SARAH FORTINSKY - 08/14/24 8:06 PM ET

Former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 1 point in a national poll of registered voters released Wednesday.

The Fox News poll, conducted Aug. 9-12, shows Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), leading with 50 percent support, followed by Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), with 49 percent, in a head-to-head hypothetical match-up.

Trump’s 1-point lead remains unchanged from the July 2024 poll — conducted before President Biden ended his campaign — which showed Trump leading Biden, 49 percent support to 48 percent, in a hypothetical two-way race.

Harris’s performance, however, improves over Biden’s July showing in a hypothetical match-up with third-party candidates.

In the latest August 2024 poll, Harris and Trump are tied, with 45 percent support each. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. follows with 6 percent, and third-party candidates Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver each get 1 percent.

In the previous poll — conducted in July, when Biden was still the presumptive Democratic candidate — Trump had a 3-point lead over Biden, 44 percent support to 41 percent. Kennedy followed with 10 percent, Stein had 3 percent, West had 1 percent and Oliver had less than 1 percent.

The latest poll shows Kennedy’s worst performance yet. His 4-point decline from last month follows a steady decline since November 2023, when he had 15 percent support.

Registered voters trust Harris to do a better job than Trump on climate change (57 percent to 39 percent), abortion (56 percent to 40 percent), health care (54 percent to 44 percent), “uniting the country” (50 percent to 45 percent) and Supreme Court nominations (50 percent to 47 percent).

Trump bests Harris, however, on issues of border security (58 percent to 39 percent), immigration (56 percent to 42 percent), foreign policy (52 percent to 45 percent), the economy (52 percent to 46 percent), crime (51 percent to 46 percent) and guns (50 percent to 47 percent).

Harris has seen an enthusiasm bump that has boosted her performance in polls nationally and in various swing states.

In the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill national polling average, Harris leads Trump, 48.1 percent support to 46.5 percent. In multicandidate polls, Harris’s national polling average lead widens over Trump, 47.4 percent support to Trump’s 43.3 percent. Kennedy has 3.1 percent.

The poll included 1,105 registered voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
 

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