United States elections 2024

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RFK Jr. exit boosts Trump, who is now neck and neck with Harris in post-DNC poll​

By
Ryan King
Published Aug. 26, 2024
Updated Aug. 26, 2024, 6:05 p.m. ET

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck nationally in fresh post-Democratic National Convention polling that indicates Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent exit slightly benefits the Republican.

Trump eked out a narrow advantage over Harris 49% to 48% in a one-on-one matchup, but the vice president came out on top 47% to 45% when third-party candidates were added to the mix, per an Echelon Insights survey.

Kennedy, who suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump last Friday, nabbed 4% support, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver each at 1%. An exact number for Independent Cornel West was not provided.

Kennedy is set to remain on the ballot in a slew of less competitive states.

The Democratic National Committee downplayed the development and doled out a memo from adviser Ramsey Reid that ticked through various data points and concluded his exit changes “nothing.”

Emblematic of polarization in the country, 52% of respondents deemed the “Biden-Harris administration” mostly a failure (15%) or a total failure (37%), while 45% called it mostly a success (28%) or a total success (17%), according to Echelon Insights.

When Harris was dropped from the question and voters were asked specifically about the “Biden administration” they grew a touch more positive, with 52% saying it was either a total failure (35%) or mostly a failure (17%), while 46% called it a total success (15%) or mostly a success (31%).

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.4
The Kennedy scion endorsed Donald Trump but is leaving his name on the ballot in a handful of states.Dennis A. Clark
Asked about Trump, 50% either strongly or somewhat approved of his job performance as president, compared to 49% who disapproved.

Meanwhile, 50% either strongly or somewhat approved of Harris’ job performance as vice president, while 48% disapproved.

Harris’ job performance ratings had long been underwater until she replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.

Donald Trump4
The two presidential hopefuls are running dead even against each other in a new Echelon Insights poll.AP
Biden’s approval rating clocked in at 43% somewhat or strongly approving him and 55% somewhat or strongly disapproving.

A sizeable 89% of voters said they were extremely (77%) or very (12%) motivated to vote in the Nov. 5 election, while 4% were not very (2%) or not at all (2%) motivated to cast their votes.

The Echelon Insights survey sampled 1,031 voters from Aug. 23–25 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Trump’s allies have dubbed Harris’ polling growth in the weeks that followed Biden’s abrupt withdrawal from the race a “honeymoon” and a “sugar high.” Harris has fashioned herself as the “underdog” in the race.

Kamala Harris4
Kamala Harris formally accepted her party’s presidential nomination last week.AP
Some top advisers to Trump told reporters last week they believe that her “honeymoon” had largely leveled out by the time the Democrats convened in Chicago.

At the moment, Harris has a 1.5 percentage point lead against Trump national in a one-on-one matchup, according to the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls.

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In a five-way national race, her lead expands to 2 percentage points in the RCP aggregate, though that largely still includes Kennedy.

Battleground state polling has given even more mixed results, but Trump is up in the RCP’s no-tossup projection map.
 

Trump, Harris in dead heat in Pennsylvania polling​


Trump Harris rallies

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris greet crowds at respective rallies.
The Center Square


HARRISBURG — Friday's polling average from Real Clear Politics shows a dead heat between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state in the battle for the White House.

Just 0.2 percentage points separate Trump and Harris, with the GOP nominee clinging to a residual lead that dominated President Joe Biden by 9 points before he bowed out of the race on July 21.

The RCP average represents results gathered by pollsters between July 22 and Aug. 19. In six of the 10 polls, Trump leads between 1 percentage point and 4 percentage points. In three matchups, Harris commands the same leads. A Fox News poll conducted between July 22 and July 24 that surveyed 1,034 registered voters found the candidates to be tied. The margin of error on the poll was 2%.

Of note, Trump's two-tenths of a point lead when polls are averaged doesn't factor in margin of error as is common to most polls. The range of smallest to largest in the 10 is 2.4% to 3.9%.

On Aug. 23 of the past two presidential election years, the RCP average showed Biden up 5.7 percentage points over Trump in 2020 and Hillary Clinton 9.2 percentage points ahead in 2016. Trump got the state's 20 electoral college votes in 2016, winning by 0.7%; Biden got the 20 in 2020, winning by 1.2%.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral college votes this year.

Harris formally accepted the Democratic nomination for president on Thursday night, promising to move the country forward past “bitterness, cynicism and divisive battles.”

During a week of glowing praise at the Democratic National Convention, party supporters pointed to the vice president’s humble beginnings – as a child born to immigrants in Oakland, Calif., who worked at McDonald’s while pursuing a bachelor’s degree at Howard University – as the bedrock of her commitment to supporting the middle class and protecting reproductive rights.

But the rosy characterization wasn’t always so for Harris, who many critics believed incapable of stepping out of the long shadow of Biden’s economic and national security policies amid skyrocketing inflation and U.S. involvement in wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

It’s unclear what impact the convention will have on Harris’ favorability among voters, though candidates historically enjoy a polling bump after the event wraps.

Meanwhile, Trump – who accepted his party’s nomination on July 18 at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee – has billed himself as a political outsider and the target of an establishment bent on lining their own pockets.

That sentiment, though central to Trump’s campaign rhetoric since 2016, was amplified 10-fold after a would-be assassin opened fire at the former president’s political rally in Butler on July 13, killing one man and wounding two others. Trump narrowly escaped injury after he turned his head just beyond the bullet’s path, walking away with a grazed earlobe.
 

Trump to visit Potterville, Vance to visit Big Rapids as recent poll shows support declining in Michigan​

By Dave Clark,EditorUpdated Aug 26, 2024 11:14 a.m.


Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Republican vice presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) appear on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Michigan will receive visits from both former President Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, this week as a recent poll shows the Republican ticket losing support in the battleground state.
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Vance will offer remarks at a Tuesday campaign stop at Majestic Friesians Horse Farms in Green Township near Big Rapids. Doors will open to the public at 10:30 a.m. Aug. 27, the Trump-Vance campaign announced Friday.
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Vance will speak on the economy, inflation, and manufacturing at about 1:30 p.m. He is also likely to discuss the construction of the Gotion North America battery component plant located near the horse farm. Lori Brock, owner of the Majestic Friesians on 19 Mile Road, has been an outspoken opponent of the project.
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On Aug. 21, the Trump campaign, in collaboration with U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers, organized a rally at the same location to express opposition to the Gotion project. The rally featured speeches from Rogers, U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, and former U.S. Rep. and current Michigan Republican Party Chair Pete Hoekstra.
Rogers said, during his remarks, that the CCP is trying to plant roots in U.S. soil through facilities like Gotion's.
"They are very aggressive, and they don't have our interests at heart. This is our chance to stand up and tell Washington D.C., who apparently isn't listening very well, that we are not going to take a Chinese company, with Chinese interests, taking American jobs in our community," he said.
The Trump-Vance campaign criticized recent inflation increases and auto industry layoffs, including those announced at Stellantis' Warren truck assembly plant, in a news release announcing Vance's visit.
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Trump will deliver a speech on the economy at Alro Steel, a distributor of metals and plastics, in Potterville, 15 miles southwest of Lansing, at 3:30 p.m. Thursday.
"President Trump knows that Michiganders can’t afford another four years of leadership that frivolously spends our hard-earned money," the press release from the Trump campaign said. "President Trump will make America affordable again and make sure that more of our money stays in our pocketbooks."
The Republican nominee for president also will speak at a conference of the National Guard Association of the United States on Monday, Aug. 26 in Detroit.
Last week, Trump visited Michigan to offer remarks on crime during an event that wasn't open to the public at a Livingston County Sheriff's Office facility in Howell.
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Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, in Michigan, according to a poll by conservative group American Greatness that was released on Friday.
According to Newsweek, a poll by American Greatness/TIPP, which describes itself as aiming to be "the leading voice of the next generation of American Conservatism," and conducted by TechnoMetrica, shows Harris leading Trump in Michigan by two points — 48 to 46 percent. The poll was conducted with a sample of 1,001 registered voters in Michigan Aug. 20-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
 

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