United States elections 2024
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Yommie
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2 new post-debate polls have bad news for Biden
Biden’s campaign counters that other polls found the president tied or ahead after the debate.
Joe Biden listens to a question during last week’s presidential debate with Donald Trump in Atlanta. | Gerald Herbert/AP
By ISABELLA RAMÍREZ
07/02/2024 08:35 PM EDT
Updated: 07/02/2024 09:39 PM EDT
Two new polls taken after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with Donald Trump offer discouraging news for Democrats.
A Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll published Tuesday found Trump beating Biden by 3 percent in a six-candidate presidential ballot — a post-debate shift from a survey a month earlier that had the two candidates tied.
Another poll conducted for CNN by SSRS similarly found Trump holding a 6 percentage point lead over the president, unchanged from an earlier survey, but also this: Fifty-six percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters said their party has a better shot at winning with a candidate other than Biden.
The new polls come as questions mount about Biden’s ability to take on Trump, with an increasing number of Democrats publicly calling for him to step aside following a debate in which he seemed at times to struggle to respond to his opponent’s barrage of verbal attacks.
The Biden campaign said in an email that other polls, including internal ones, found the president tied or ahead of Trump after the debate. It also noted that media coverage of President Barack Obama’s 2012 debate drove “a large, but temporary, drop in his polling.”
Just over three-quarters of voters in the new CNN poll think Trump performed better at the presidential debate, compared to 23 percent for Biden.
Voters in the USA TODAY poll also saw Trump as the clear victor of the debate with 50 percent indicating the former president won compared to 11 percent for Biden. Twenty-eight percent say neither candidate.
Yet, 44 percent of those who watched the presidential debate say the debate didn’t influence their decision about who to vote for, according to the USA TODAY poll. Roughly a third say it made them more likely to vote for Trump while 10 percent say it tipped them toward Biden.
An overwhelming portion of voters overall — 75 percent — say the Democrats have a better chance at winning the presidency in 2024 with someone other than Biden as the party’s nominee, per CNN’s poll.
Amid speculation about who might replace Biden should he decide to step aside, CNN’s poll tested how well a series of Democratic Party alternatives would fare against Trump. Only Vice President Kamala Harris performed better than Biden at 45 percent, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom and U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg performed the same as Biden at 43 percent.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has dismissed POLITICO’s reporting that she said her state was “no longer winnable” for Biden, fared worse against Trump than Biden with 42 percent.
The CNN poll was conducted June 28-30, surveying 1,045 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. The USA TODAY poll was conducted June 28-30, surveying 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Davey Crockett
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Identification With Democrats Plummets In The US
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024
Identification with the Democratic Party has plummeted in the U.S. to the lowest recorded levels, according to a Gallup database.
As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, even before the first presidential debate featuring both current President Joe Biden and his challenger in the 2024 elections, Donald Trump, only 23 percent of U.S. respondents surveyed by the organization said in June that they identified as Democrats.
This is fewer than ever since continuous records of the question started at the organization in 2004.
~
Democrats and Republicans.
I was talking to a friend's little girl, and she said she wanted to be President some day.
Both of her parents, liberal Democrats, were standing there, so I asked her, 'If you were to be the President, what's the first thing you would do?' She replied, 'I'd give food and houses to all the homeless people.'
'Wow - what a worthy goal.' I told her, 'You don't have to wait until you're President to do that.
You can come over to my house and mow the grass, pull weeds, and sweep my yard, and I'll pay you $50. Then I'll take you over to the grocery store where the homeless guy hangs out, and you can give him the $50 to use toward food or a new house.'
She thought that over for a few seconds, 'cause she's only 8.
And while her Mom glared at me, the little girl looked me straight in the eye and asked, 'Why doesn't the homeless guy come over and do the work, and you can just pay him the $50?'
And I said, 'Welcome to the Republican Party.'
Her folks still aren't talking to me.
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024
Identification with the Democratic Party has plummeted in the U.S. to the lowest recorded levels, according to a Gallup database.
As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, even before the first presidential debate featuring both current President Joe Biden and his challenger in the 2024 elections, Donald Trump, only 23 percent of U.S. respondents surveyed by the organization said in June that they identified as Democrats.
This is fewer than ever since continuous records of the question started at the organization in 2004.
~
Democrats and Republicans.
I was talking to a friend's little girl, and she said she wanted to be President some day.
Both of her parents, liberal Democrats, were standing there, so I asked her, 'If you were to be the President, what's the first thing you would do?' She replied, 'I'd give food and houses to all the homeless people.'
'Wow - what a worthy goal.' I told her, 'You don't have to wait until you're President to do that.
You can come over to my house and mow the grass, pull weeds, and sweep my yard, and I'll pay you $50. Then I'll take you over to the grocery store where the homeless guy hangs out, and you can give him the $50 to use toward food or a new house.'
She thought that over for a few seconds, 'cause she's only 8.
And while her Mom glared at me, the little girl looked me straight in the eye and asked, 'Why doesn't the homeless guy come over and do the work, and you can just pay him the $50?'
And I said, 'Welcome to the Republican Party.'
Her folks still aren't talking to me.
Yommie
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- Oct 2, 2013
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Trump Widens Lead After Biden’s Debate Debacle, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view Mr. Biden as too old for the job, an uptick since the debate.
Yommie
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- Oct 2, 2013
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Only Michelle Obama bests Trump as an alternative to Biden in 2024
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that about one-third of Democrats say Biden should drop out of the presidential race after the debate2 July 2024
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Washington, DC, July 2, 2024—Following the first 2024 presidential debate, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain in dead heat for November’s election. In hypothetical matchups with Democratic candidates other than Biden, former first lady Michelle Obama is the only hypothetical candidate to definitively defeat Trump in this poll. Michelle Obama also tops the charts in favorability among registered voters, with Trump and Biden trailing her by more than 10 percentage points each. When asked whether Trump or Biden should drop out of the race following the debate, nearly three in five agree for Biden and just under half say the same about Trump.
For more information about this poll, please click here.
Detailed Findings
1. After the debate, Trump and Biden remain tied among registered voters for the November presidential election. In other hypothetical Democratic matchups against Trump, only Michelle Obama bests Trump among registered voters.- When asked who they would vote for in the November presidential election, 40% of registered voters say Biden and 40% say Trump. This tie between candidates is consistent from late May 2024 when 41% said Biden and 39% said Trump.
- When asked about hypothetical Democratic candidate matches against Trump, 50% of registered voters say they would vote for Michelle Obama, and just 39% say they would vote for Trump.
- All other hypothetical Democratic candidates either perform similarly to or worse than Biden against Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris hypothetically wins 42% of registered voters to Trump’s 43%. California Governor Gavin Newsom hypothetically wins 39% of registered voters to Trump’s 42%. All other hypothetical Democratic candidates earn between 34% to 39% of potential votes among registered voters.
- Forty-two percent of registered voters say they have a favorable opinion of Trump, and 38% say the same about Biden. About three in five say they have unfavorable opinions of Trump (56%) or Biden (60%).
- Comparatively, more registered voters, 55%, say they have a favorable opinion of Michelle Obama. Kamala Harris’ favorability generally falls in line with Trump and Biden, as 40% of registered voters say they have a favorable opinion of her.
- Other hypothetical Democratic candidates—California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker—have significantly lower favorability ratings. However, significantly more registered voters say they have not heard of each of these public figures.
3. More than half of Americans say Biden should drop out of the presidential race following the debate. Just under half say Trump should drop out. A higher share of Democrats say Biden should drop out than Republicans who say Trump should drop out. Differences also emerge by race and ethnicity.
- Nearly three in five (56%) Americans agree Biden should drop out of the race following the debate. Just 46% of Americans say Trump should drop out of the race following the debate, ten percentage points lower than said so for Biden.
- While just 11% of Republicans say Trump should drop out following the debate, about one-third (32%) of Democrats agree Biden should drop out.
- Among independents, 60% say Biden should drop out following the debate, and 47% say Trump should drop out.
- The majority (63%) of white Americans say Biden should drop out, but just 41% say the same about Trump. Conversely, and the majority (67%) of Black Americans say Trump should drop out, but just 31% say Biden should drop out. Meanwhile, about half of Hispanic Americans say Trump or Biden should drop out (51% and 49%, respectively).
About the Study
This Ipsos poll was conducted July 1-2, 2024 on behalf of Reuters using the KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative sample of 1,070 U.S. residents, age 18 or older. This sample includes 892 registered voters, 348 Democrats, 322 Republicans, and 303 independents.The study was conducted in English. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, Census region, metropolitan status, education, household income, and party ID. Party ID benchmarks are from the 2023 NPORS annual survey. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). The weighting categories were as follows:
- Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+)
- Race-Ethnicity (White/Non-Hispanic, Black/Non-Hispanic, Other/Non-Hispanic and 2+ Races/Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
- Metropolitan Status (Metro, Non-Metro)
- Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
- Household Income (under $25K, $25K-$49,999, $50K-$74,999, $75K-$99,999, $100K-$149,999, $150K and over)
- Party ID (Democrat, Lean Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something else)
In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
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