US democratic decline threatens global rule of law, report warns

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US democratic decline threatens global rule of law, report warns​

Nearly half of US democracy indicators hit 50-year lows, accelerating global stability decline, warns new IDEA study.




The U.S Capitol is photographed Monday, Sept. 14, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

Democratic erosion in the US has 'far reaching' impacts on freedoms worldwide, a watchdog has warned [File: Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo]

By Tamara Khandaker
Published On 15 Sep 202615 Sep 2026
The United States is accelerating the global weakening of the rule of law, according to a new report that found nearly half of the indicators used to measure American democracy have fallen to their lowest levels in 50 years.

In the report released on Tuesday, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) describes the US as the “most prominent example and accelerator” of the trend, warning that its democratic erosion is having consequences far beyond the country’s borders.

“President Donald Trump quickly amassed power in the executive branch and wielded it to further a narrow set of personal goals and pursue retaliation against perceived enemies,” the report stated. “In that environment, which is marked by constricted space for both public expression and institutional checks on power, resistance is increasingly unsafe.”

Globally, around 57 percent of countries declined in at least one key indicator of democratic performance between 2020 and 2025. Judicial independence has fallen to a 36-year low, while credible elections are at their lowest level in 30 years.

But the report singles out the US because of both the scale of its decline and its outsized global influence, arguing that its retreat from democratic norms has strained multilateral institutions and emboldened authoritarian leaders elsewhere.

“The results have been far-reaching, undermining the rule of law domestically and internationally and testing long-standing alliances and multilateral cooperation,” the report stated.


It pointed to Brazil and Serbia as examples, saying the aftermath of Brazil’s 2022 election, when Jair Bolsonaro sought to remain in power after losing the presidency and his supporters later stormed government buildings, “echoed” the aftermath of the 2020 US election. In Serbia, officials cited Trump’s claims of mismanagement at USAID to justify raids on civil society organisations.

“For decades, the rule of law both domestically and in the international order has underpinned the resilience of democracies,” International IDEA Secretary-General Kevin Casas-Zamora said. “Now, the rapid decline of democracy in the USA is weakening judicial independence and fragmenting the international system — threatening democracy around the world.”


Attacks on institutions​

The US recorded seven statistically significant declines between 2020 and 2025, including in access to justice, freedom of expression, press freedom and judicial independence. Except for free political parties, the other six are now at their lowest levels in the dataset’s history.

On press freedom, International IDEA cites cuts to funding for public broadcasters NPR, PBS and the US Agency for Global Media, as well as “ad hominem attacks on journalists, particularly women, and lawsuits against media organisations such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and the BBC”.

Universities have also come under pressure.

“Executive measures affecting funding and academic freedom in universities, including efforts to influence accreditation and hiring processes, provide a further example of the decline in Freedom of Expression,” the report said, citing the withholding of federal funds from Harvard and Columbia.

The report calls the Trump administration’s use of the immigration system the “starkest example” of declining access to justice. It points to 137 Venezuelans sent to El Salvador under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, saying many had little or no established connection to the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang and were denied the chance to properly challenge their removal in court.

The report also warns that the broader erosion of democracy comes with consequences for global security, finding that some forms of democratic decline are associated with a greater risk of violent conflict. There were 65 violent conflicts in 2025, the most recorded since the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s series began in 1946, including a record eight conflicts between states.
 

Preface​

The modern world is being reshaped by a whirlwind of rapid changes across social, economic, technological, and political life. The acceleration of economic inequalities, the rupture of the international order, the insertion of ever more powerful algorithms into ever more parts of life, and the global spread of polarized politics are all making the future increasingly uncertain. In this unstable context, strong and resilient democracies, rooted in public trust, adaptable processes, and inclusive institutions, are best placed to achieve stability, security, and peace.

While the above changes are certainly significant, International IDEA’s 2026 Global State of Democracy report shows that—so far—they are aggravating, not transforming, the long-standing struggles of democracy. Indeed, when it comes to the state and fate of democracy, there is much continuity. For the 11th consecutive year, more countries declined in performance than advanced. The most extensive deteriorations were seen in the same areas as last year, including Freedom of Expression, Freedom of the Press, and Effective Parliament. And if we look at all indicators of democracy across all countries, the vast majority (81 percent) experienced no change at all: a story of stagnation, not transformation. Change takes time, even in a whirlwind.

Nonetheless, our report suggests some areas for particular concern. Among the four categories of democracy measured by our report (Representation, Rights, Rule of Law, and Participation), Rule of Law stands out as especially vulnerable: not just declining but doing so from a low baseline. Many newer democracies never consolidated their judicial systems, anti-corruption institutions, or enforcement mechanisms in the first place. These vital democratic safeguards are now further weakened as authoritarian populism challenges independent judiciaries and as the normative infrastructure of international law is weakened by disuse and abuse. Of course, not only young democracies are vulnerable: the United States has become the most prominent example and accelerator of the disturbing trend toward a belittled and diminished Rule of Law. Indeed, the negative trajectory of democracy in the United States across the board stands out as a serious concern in the global story covered in our report.

The quality of governance must ultimately be measured by its impact on the governed—and in this regard, the greatest promise of democracy is peace. The second part of this report assesses the interactions between democracy’s recent challenges and the resurgence of conflict within and between states. Our analysis reinforces points of historical continuity in this domain too, including the persistence of interstate democratic peace: in one of the great empirical findings of political science, democracies do not go to war with each other, thus making democracy an indisputable asset for international relations. Yet the relationship between democracy and peace is not linear, and the countries with the highest risk of conflict are those that are neither fully autocratic nor consolidated democracies. The current era of democratic decline is producing more countries in the messy middle of democratization.

We have known for decades that democratic consolidation is part of the pathway to peace. Since then, however, years of democratic erosion have returned us to a dangerous limbo. In many places, democratization has removed the potential for arbitrary repression as a method of conflict resolution but has not replaced it with effective representation and oversight. As this report shows, investments in democracy can pay a glorious dividend; but to enjoy that reward, the job cannot be left half-finished. Helping our Member States and partner countries advance this crucial task is the mission of International IDEA. This report is a contribution to that end and, hence, to peace.

Dr Kevin Casas-Zamora
Secretary-General, International IDEA


 

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